IM Coz Race Plan
Hello all I am Carl Noftsger whom lives in Altoona, IA. 39 years old and weighing in at 155 pounds.
This will be my third Ironman this year. The first was Ironman St George and after that swim and bike I thought for sure I would die on the run but survived and finished in 12:57. The second being Ironman Wisc where I stepped up my training a little and focused more on my run cause I wanted to run a sub 4 hour marathon off the bike. Finished in 11:26 and the marathon was 3:57. I was ten times more sore after th second and still not sure what to relate it to.
Well after IM Wisc I took a week completely off and then the second and third weeks slowly stepped back into the came. I have been training with Randy Pickard whom is doing IM Arizona so its been fun to have someone to kind of push you along the way if you will. I told myself I was just going to stay in race shape and get through the race and call it good. Well I can tell you my training has stepped up 2-3x more then what it was for Wisc.
- My ave weeks have been 19-24 hours.
- Ave Bike week 200, peak week 315
- Ave Run week 50, peak week 72
- Ave swim week 13,000 yards(this last week no swimming d/t stitches)
My last tested FTP was 265 and my last test vDOT was 50. I honestly have not tested for several months and wont untill the OS in Jan. I am comfortable and feel good in training and racing.
We/my family and in laws fly into Cozumel Tuesday Nov 20th and crashing at the Cozumel Palace. First time packing a bike and paying those nasty fee's and will prob be the last. Therefore borrowing a hard bike case and wheelbags. Taking my son and father-in-law deep sea fishing Thanksgiving day for 6 hours then celebrating with the rest of the family later that day. Otherwise I keep it pretty low key. Might ride the bike course once just for feel and to make sure nothing happended to the bike during the flight that needs fixed or adjusted. Will swim a few times and prob not run at all.
Day before the race I will try and stay off my feet as much as possible. Will have a large breakfast and moderate lunch and salt on everything. Will drink gatorade or some sort of sports drink/coconut water throughout the day.
Race Morning will wake around 0200 and have 2 Ensures try to fall back to sleep and then up at 0430. Will have two more Ensures and a bagel with PB.
SWIM GOAL: 1:20
- The only time I have swam in the Ocean or Sea has been on vacation. I am not use to the swells or current (even though St George had both) so could be interesting.
- 15 minutes before race take in a Roctane GU and a small bottle of gatorade
- I will be swimming in a TYR speed suit.
- Plan to stay in my box and swim my swim. Out of the three disciplines this is my weakest.
- Pray I dont get stung by a jelly or see a shark.
- Find some feet about my speed and draft to reserve energy.
Transitions I am just going to make them as smooth and fast as possible.
BIKE GOAL: 5:30
- Riding a Cervelo P3 (white lightning). Crank-Rotor 3D Bbright aero 53/39 and cassette 11/28. Why the 11/28 cause I have trained and raced on it all year, I am comfortable with it, and I am too lazy to change it. No compact cause the course if flat.
- Front wheel a Zipp 404 firecrest. Rear wheel Zipp 808 with powertap eite +.
- Tires are the Conti 4000 with normal cheap tubes.
- Lazer Tardiz aero helment with vents open. Love the open top hole to pour water in.
- Scape sunblock.....this stuff is the BOMB!! Also stuff for lips cause they are big and get fried. SPF 45 for them.
- Gorilla cages in the back, one on down tube, and one up front. Only refill when low. Otherwise aero all the time!!!!
- I have never completed a race rehearsal on flat ground so really not sure what to expect but I think my goal is attainable
- Will be riding at .73-.74 IF. Wll try not to cruise over 200 watts the entire ride. My TSS at my last two races have been slightly over 300 and I have been fine.
- If .73-.74 starts feeling to hard or the heat and wind are a factor then I will dial it down to a more comfy pace.
- Goal is to be just on the edge of comfy but to know I am working
- First 30 minutes will be like a small buffett for me. I will eat and drink till I am merry. This will also be the last 30 min of the ride. I want to come off the bike topped off.
- My nutrition will stay the same as Wisc ~ 650-700 cals an hour on the bike.
- Will drinking nothing but perform and some water
- Goal is to urinate 3-4 times on the move. If not urinating within the first hour will up my fluid intake
RUN GOAL: 3:45
- The first hour of my run I just let the body guide itself within reason. The first mile however I pull the reins back and try and keep it at a 9 min pace. Then we just go from there.
- I am not one that can start and then after and hour speed up. It just doesnt work that way for me. I will find my happy zone and go from there.
- At mile 18 if all is well i am going to just keep a nice 90-95 run cadence, eat, drink and be merry.
- Mile 20-26 is my race. I want to set a PR here for me. Pace wise who knows but it will be as fast as I can run without breaking good form.
- I will be hitting every aid station and walking through it and drinking Perform and a water. Mile 12 on I will start hitting the coke and water.
- My nutrition on the run will be whatever I can get in my mouth and taste good. I am not kidding either. Chips, cookies, blocks, oranges, bananas, etc.
So since this is my third one as you can see it is just not quit as methodical as my other two have been and I am going out on a few limbs and taking a few more chances. If I crash and burn so be it then it happens and I have lost not one thing. I have 17 hours to finish this race. You never know your limits until you push them.
Ironman Wisc was 11hrs and 26 min. Do I think I can beat that?????? In my heart and soul I am smiling and thinking for sure. But each race is different and you never know what will be thrown your way. I will promise you though that no matter what I will finish with a smile on my face. I do have that goal # in my head but will keep it to myself.
Well that is it in a nut shell.
I would like to close with I will never again in my life do three full Ironman events in a year unless it is my full time job and I get paid more then 500,000 dollars to do it. It has been a great adventure and I have learned a lot about myself and what this pain is from this pain. Is it something I can work through or should I stop. Yes its okay to have 5 doughnuts vs one and Honey Stinger Waffles are a good source of breakfast.
I have laughed, loved, suffered, and cried through the past 13 months of this non stop training. I have enjoyed my extended family and friends that I have made with EN and other clubs. Right now my body does not know anything else but to eat, sleep, train, and how to land and bounce off the concrete. It is just what I have become accustomed to. My wife and children are so use to it and I owe them SOOOO MUCH. They told me the other day that they want to go somewhere that doesn't involve my bike, running, swimming, etc. I smiled, gave them all a huge group hug and with tears in my eyes said, "ME TOO"!!!!! Its been real my friends very real. 
Comments
Given your test numbers and your mileage, I would be betting on you.
It will be good to track you. Go get em!
Carl - I have NO doubts about your mental fortitude, nor about your physical readiness. You are ready to test your limits. You note, "You never know your lmits until you push them."
I would modify that a bit: You never know your limits until you go past them. And if you start out the run aiming for the time you list, you will find out just what those limits are.
Here's what I'm talking about. I believe as deeply and completely in our heat pace calculator as I do in the predictive ability of Nate Silver's election day algorithms.
I ran your VDOT of 50 and the hourly race day temps & dew point for Madison on Sep 9, 2012 in the calculator. Predicted time: 3:56:43. Eerie, huh? Whenever I've run my past races on warm or hot days through that calculator, I found it predicted my times within 30 seconds.
So I went to the average temps (82F) for race day in Cozumel, and ran the calculator. If you get under 4:10 (I won't tell you the exact time, you can wait and do that yourself closer to race day), you will be having the race of a lifetime. Aiming for 3:45 means you'll be starting out at a pace about 1 minute per mile too fast. How long do you think that will last?
Better to focus on HR and RPE as target numbers, or at least as a cross check to your pace, on race day.
Carl the links below are from my IMFL2011 Race Plan and then Race Report. Al had to go and interject some reality into my Marathon Plan based on my Vdot as well. He of course was right. Very good comments pre and post IMFL you can see what I thought I could do and what I did.
http://members.endurancenation.us/Training/TrainingForums/tabid/101/aft/7390/Default.aspx#101250
http://members.endurancenation.us/Training/TrainingForums/tabid/101/aft/7475/Default.aspx#103818
Personally I been following your run workouts and think you are capable of that 3:45 Marathon prediction. Not because Al is wrong . But because your Vdot is probably higher than you think , specially since you havent tested it in a while!
Reference the Heat App Calculator.... Its been a very good predictor for me based on Vdot.... However the hotter it is , the more I can beat the estimate by..... I believe this is the advantage to being a lightweight!
Thanks for the responses to all:
Al: I will for sure take another peak at the heat calculator and see what it has to offer. My problem is my body likes to settle into a pace and remain steady then towards the last 5 miles I always seem as if I can pick it up and really push. I tried the first 6 miles etc in St George and it did not fair well for me. You have a great point though because I usually run the marathon in Jamaica every year and for some reason last year the heat and humidity jumped on me. The last thing I want to do is end up walking a good portion of the marathon cause of something I could have prevented. Fluid and calorie intake will be huge cause this little engine burns through the calories.
I am sure my Vdot is a few points higher then 50 but wont guess. Will know the first week of OS in Jan. I have been running 50-55 miles a week and the ave pace according to my stats have been 8:15-8:30. I have those days though where it is just a plain sufferfest. For example today was a hill workout and I always do them on the treadmill. Started at 2% incline and worked myself up to 4% and back. When doing speed work seems like I can run 6:30's very comfy and have been trying to work myself into the 6:00 min range. So again for this race we will stick with vDOT of 50 and go from there. Agree execution is cue for a great race vs overall fitness.
On the bike my goal is to stay low 99.9999% of the time including eating, drinking, urinating, etc. Its my understanding we have a strong cross wind on part of the island that turns into a nice tail wind for awhile. I may push it up a little with the tail wind?!! Thoughts?? I did my second somewhat RR(112 miles) at .78 IF and was able to run 7.4 miles in an hour really comfy. Believe the TSS was around 320. In all of my races so far the TSS's have been over 300 even with a low VI.
Nutrition wise the only thing I am changing is if its hot and humid is up'ing my salt stick my 200 mg and drinking as much perform as my body will allow. Solids will be Honey Stinger Waffles already opened and in a baggy so I don't have to worry about that, Chomps, Roctane GU's, and a couple snickers bars. Mile 80 as always a 6 oz bottle of Coca Cola. I believe I just read on the Cozumel IM site that they will be serving Gatorade vs Perform so I am glad I have been training with both.
Starting Monday also I will be hitting the low end of the numbers on the bike and run just to start allowing the body to heal up. Current Sinus Infection and if not better by Monday I will be doing a round of Prednisone which makes me damn near stir crazy!!!!
The stitches in my chin come out Monday so my plan is to get in the water at least 3-4 times next week and just go to cruise conrol and get a few 4500 yard easy comfy swims in maybe with a few sprints. Need to try out the new speed suit and see if there is any issues.
Question: What is the easiest way to stow away CO cartridges for the plane ride. Its my understanding they are not allowed but the issue last year was they sold out of them the first day of the Expo. On the facebook IM Coz site severals stated they packed their own and nothing was said. Just curious if anyone has thoughts.
I think several of us racing will see a lot of each other so it will be a blast. Not saying to pull a train or anything like that but it does sound like minimal marshalls on the course and the only thing they really warn you about is drafting. So like high fiving and looking at each others back tire say for wear and tear could be a good time......hahahaha thats a joke.
I see lots of breakfast in bed for the wife and family trips with white lightning at home the next 6 months....
Good luck, I will be tracking you guys for sure...very jealous....
Nate-
Thank You very much for the kind words. I have never worked like this in my life. Its kind of weird but my body/family/friends, etc have become accustomed to it. I know when I wake up its game on!!!!! I will not by any means miss the two a day Monday runs that I put myself through.
I am looking forward to the race then some serious downtime and recovery.
Thanks again
Carl - 2x what Nate said. I don't know how you keep going. I admire your mental strength and your body's recovery powers. Now go have a great race to cap off an amazing training and IM racing year. Good luck.
Regarding the CO2, that appears to be fairly dependent on the airport. I've heard stories of folks called back to security and handed their ass for packing them and others have no issues. You never know how badly TSA is going to dig around in your bike box. Can you ship them ahead of time to your hotel?
Will do!!!! Hopefully not in a vets office