How to analyze running race failure?

jhpiii

Happy Thanksgiving team!

Turkey Trot this morning. 10k, about 50 degrees, 18 mph winds. My VDot is 48 from a 5k test about 10 weeks ago. I am in Week 5 of the Nov OS. I have hit ALL of my TP intervals easily at 7:05 per mile. The VDot calculator projects a 42:50 10k time. I ran a 45:06 (mile splits below). This has become a regular occurence, running races slower than my VDot and interval performance would predict. I'm looking for suggestions on improving the performance at the 5k/10k level. (I realize this is not the objective in our long course tri world, but I am competitive.) Thanks for any advice or help...

Mile 1: 7:02 (HR: 161)

Mile 2: 7:01 (HR:170)

Mile 3: 6:59 (HR: 174)

Mile 4: 7:28 (HR: 172)

Mile 5: 7:21 (HR: 173)

Mile 6: 7:37 (HR:173)

Mile .23: 6:51 pace (HR: 177) 

cgres123

Your Vdot was accurate for the 5K. When you run a 10K, half marathon , marathon and or a Tri race with and without heat / humidity there is an adjustment to be made.
The suggested adjustment for a marathon is subtract 2.5 a 20 mile race 2, a half marathon 1.5 a 10 miler 1 point.
And it goes on for adjustment for heat humidity and most importantly experience.
The above is our guidance for adjusting your Vdot least you think you can run a 5k and maintain that pace for a marathon/Ironman. Well it doesn't work that way.
Sure you can get your Vdot from a 5k and do your workouts as given to you from your plan, however you are building the fast before the far/distance. In your OS you will get faster in everything keeping apples to apples but when you take the apple to go orange it won't work on an apple scale. You have to learn your adjustment. You stick around here long enough keep posting as you have done you will learn how to pace correctly all your races. As for now don't sweat it do you OS stuff and get your fast on and start thinking about the above. Since I have been here I have PR'd everything including an IM of 1h 30min PR and much more.

rmiller

I generally agree with David - right now you are focusing on raising the fast on short distances, with little concentration on extending the far. The important thing about the VDOT calculator is that it's a projection if you do the workouts required for the entered distance - and at this point, the workouts we do in the OS aren't tailored to a 10k race.



I find that VDOT's are a guideline, but not necessarily an all-inclusive estimate. Some people will have a higher VDOT at longer distances (recently I've been falling into that category), others will have a higher VDOT at shorter distances.



At the multisport expo last March, there was a discussion on two concepts in training:

1) endurance capacity - this is training to improve time trial results (what we are doing in the OS)

2) fatigue resistance - this is training to improve ability to maintain pace (what I'd expect we'd be doing when we start adding the 'far')



Just like you have to run fast to get better at running faster, you have to run farther at a specific pace to get better at running farther at a specific pace. During the OS, we've been doing anywhere from 2-3 total miles @ TP, but not beyond that. So we've been working on endurance capacity, and not working on fatigue resistance. I'd say this is evidenced by the pretty dramatic dropoff after 3 miles - where you went from ~7 min/miles to 7:30 min/miles.



Just my $0.02 worth of thoughts

MattAaronson

What was the elevation profile and headwind/tailwind dynamic throughout the race? I ask this because 6:51 pace for the last quarter may be indicative of a pacing issue. In a 10k run to the limits of your capability you're going to HURT for most of the race. What was the reason for paces in the 7:20's and 7:30's? Were you worried about going too hard or were you hurting bad and just couldn't go faster? I do not disagree with David that some people will not run to their VDOT at different distances, but being off by 2' in a 10k is quite a lot relative to a 5k-derived VDOT. Personally (and YMMV for sure), I generally run within a point of my VDOT from 5k through HIM.

If you tell me there was a lot of up/down and then you add the 18mph wind I would say the conditions are probably a huge part of the issue (although that does not explain your comment of "This has become a regular occurence, running races slower than my VDot and interval performance would predict."...this has me thinking execution for sure).

As an aside, when runing a race in a strong wind, you should experiment with drafting off of other runners to save energy.

Al Truscott

Getting from a 45:XX 10 K to a 43:00 10 K on your VDOT requires 6-12 weeks of specific 10K training. On the order of, every two weeks (doing 30-40 miles/week): 4 runs of 6-10 miles @ MP/EP, 2 runs incorporating 10 x 100 meters, 1 session of interval work (400s - 1600s, depending on how close to the race, @ faster than 5Kpace >> desired 10K pace), and one session of about 2-3 miles @ threshold pace. All the non MP/EP runs would have a goodly amount of warm-up/cool-down. OS training does not provide that level of specificity or volume. If you want to maximize your potential for a 10 K (or any distance), you have to do training specifically for that distance, for a fair amount of time (2-3 months) before the planned race. If you have been doing that amount and specificity of training leading into this race, then, yes, you do have some issues with execution. If you have not done the necessary training, don't be disappointed.

Dave Tallo

My guess: you're fatigued from the last 5 weeks of OS.

rkling

What the others have said about specificity. If you have been training for a 10K and underperformed, it is likely an issue of race execution. If you've been doing all OS stuff, remember that your vDOT is a projection across distances IF YOU'VE BEEN TRAINING FOR THE DISTANCE, so I would expect you to fade past 5K. I would drastically underform if I tried to run at my current vDOT for a half-marathon now.

Agree with what Matt said: conditions make a difference. 18 MPH wind is a pretty hefty wind.

Finally, I do think there is some muscle memory and neuromuscular memory involved, too. I would guess that if you have a lot of experience with open runs, your pacing would be more consistent, since there is (for want of a better term) an internal pacing clock that a lot of people have developed over the years. What I mean is that experience would tell you what kind of shape you are in, so that you would go out more conservatively if you are less fit, just because of how you would "feel."