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FTP Gains, when do they happen?

This question is motivated by my analysis of what it would take to ride a sub-five-hour bike at IMFL, not that I expect to do it this year.  Based on my average IM bike split, I would have to improve my speed by 10% to go sub five.  To improve my speed by 10%, my FTP would need to increase by about 30% because the power necessary to overcome wind resistance and hence increase speed is a cubed function (yes, it may take several years to get there).  So, here is the question: Can a well-trained individual expect about a 10% gain in FTP over peak the previous year?  When will these gains come?  Will they come during the OS, during the race-specific training, when?  In the OS I'm finding that it takes me 8 weeks to get back to my peak FTP from the previous season. I would be wildly excited if I gained 5% in my FTP over the remaining OS.  I guess the summary is what kind of year over year gains can a person reasonably expect and, for goal setting, do they come evenly distributed across the year?

Comments

  • 2010 was my first year with a power meter. My FTP peaked around 250. 2011 it peaked around 280. 2012 it peaked at 301. Yes, 10% increases are certainly possible and even likely for many people. I don't expect to see a 10% increase next year since 330 seems pretty lofty.
  • 2011 went from 175 to a peak of 222 or 27%, 2012 peak of 230 or a 3% gain. 2013 goal is a realistic 3% up to 237. Sooner or later you reach a point where it's just not possible. The gains will come during the OS and if your lucky may even drift up a bit more thru the year but most will be happy just to hold on to them. Race specific training will hopefully net you the ability to hold higher percentages of the FTP for racing.
  • Bob has a very high-end FTP and very solid gains averaging just under 10%/year. He is younger than I by about a decade. If Tom's prediction comes true, he will be just over 10%/year FTP increase, but much of this came in his first year. From the sample of 2 or 3, FTP gains appear to be asymptotic approaching a value in decreasing increments over time. @Bob and Tom, did you use some magic formula or just the EN workouts to get such outstanding results? I have seen arguments for strength training for FTP gains, but RnP tend to favor bike-specific training. I also wonder about Creatine supplements but have never heard of cyclists doing much with this. Another issue is that CT has a measurement error threshold of +/- 2.5%. So, any increase less than 5% falls into the domain of possible measurement error. Sorry to always have a wet blanket ready.
  • Mine was purely doing EN bike workouts or some bastardization of them. I also think I'm a "bad" FTP tester and that my FTP was always actually higher than what was tested. I'm interested to try out the new testing protocol to see what that does for me.

    I'm hoping to be at about 310 watts by IMTX. Which would be ~ 3% increase.
  • @Steve.... All EN bike workouts or very similar.... Personally I'm not a believer in strength training or supplements just good clean eating and recovery!
  • Agree with RnP about strength training in OS. To do the lifting required to increase leg strength/power would leave your legs trashed, making biking and running FTP work difficult. In addition, it would start cutting into your revovery time. Now a good functional/ core routine would be beneficial to help strengthen those often neglected gluts, scapulothoracic and core muscles.
  • I went from an FTP of 300 in 2009 to 335 in 2010 to a peak of 360 in 2011 and for a big part it came from rather unstructured training, doing group rides with club friends and simply racing and chasing on courses I'm usually not good at. I'm around 185lbs at racing weight so I just get much stronger from following much lighter people on the climbs, which means riding for short periods of time at power levels way above my FTP, often followed by only a short recovery before having to repeat the effort. Basically it was just a simple game, try to follow or beat the climbers on group rides.

    In 2012 I didn't exceed 340 watts, I think primarily from a lack of these group rides as I was doing most of my riding alone at the time in preparation for IMSG. (After IMSG life got in the way, and minimal training resulted in major fitness loss). For 2013 I have no idea where I will end up, it's all gonna have to come from the OS, HIM and IM training and key will be to recover as much of my threshold power as possible. But it's never gonna exceed 360 watts I think so to some degree you can say i've plateau'ed. So for me the focus isn't really about having more power year over year, but more about reaching that level as soon as possible, and trying to maintain the level throughout the season for as long as possible.
  • I think your FTP improvement is function of how long you have been training as well. You can see 10%+ improvements the first 2-3 years but after that you would see a plateau somewhat. I would think improvements of 3-5% per year would be more likely after the 3rd year. And the most improvements are made in the OS due to the intense focused training.
  • Plus the extra rest, compared to in season.
  • In 2011 my FTP increased almost 16% from 211 to 244, about half of it in the first 8-week block of the OS and the remainder in the last 6-week block. Not much gain in the middle 6-week VO2 block.

    In 2012 my FTP increased almost 8% from 236 to 254, all of it in the first 8-week OS block. This is of course only a 4% incresae over my peak in 2011.
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