FTP Gains, when do they happen?
This question is motivated by my analysis of what it would take to ride a sub-five-hour bike at IMFL, not that I expect to do it this year. Based on my average IM bike split, I would have to improve my speed by 10% to go sub five. To improve my speed by 10%, my FTP would need to increase by about 30% because the power necessary to overcome wind resistance and hence increase speed is a cubed function (yes, it may take several years to get there). So, here is the question: Can a well-trained individual expect about a 10% gain in FTP over peak the previous year? When will these gains come? Will they come during the OS, during the race-specific training, when? In the OS I'm finding that it takes me 8 weeks to get back to my peak FTP from the previous season. I would be wildly excited if I gained 5% in my FTP over the remaining OS. I guess the summary is what kind of year over year gains can a person reasonably expect and, for goal setting, do they come evenly distributed across the year?
Comments
I'm hoping to be at about 310 watts by IMTX. Which would be ~ 3% increase.
In 2012 I didn't exceed 340 watts, I think primarily from a lack of these group rides as I was doing most of my riding alone at the time in preparation for IMSG. (After IMSG life got in the way, and minimal training resulted in major fitness loss). For 2013 I have no idea where I will end up, it's all gonna have to come from the OS, HIM and IM training and key will be to recover as much of my threshold power as possible. But it's never gonna exceed 360 watts I think so to some degree you can say i've plateau'ed. So for me the focus isn't really about having more power year over year, but more about reaching that level as soon as possible, and trying to maintain the level throughout the season for as long as possible.
In 2012 my FTP increased almost 8% from 236 to 254, all of it in the first 8-week OS block. This is of course only a 4% incresae over my peak in 2011.