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RR#2 Output and Race Execution Question

Sorry to put this here...but wasn't getting what I needed in the other forum....

I just completed RR#2 over the weekend.  My RR's have always been 100ile ride (always same out and back course) followed by 10k run...why? Well my very first RR & 100mile ride was on this course and it took me over the 6hr time limit and so I have always done subsequent RR's on this course which gives me a great historical view of my fitness + it is a good course with strategically located logistical supports ..like refueling stop at the 50mile mark and a bike shop at the 20mile marker......

RR#1 this year...4weeks ago & I was very pleased ...My target power was 145-150 based off of a 69-70% of my 210FTP (from racing with power calculator)...I finished the ride in 5:33/18mph avg. Pwr of 147/Pnorm 152 for VI 1.03 ...Avg. HR 123 (very cool & very windy day in my face on the way out tailwind most of the way back)  Avg. Cadence 83 ..TSS291I This was a very consistent ride with minimal disruption other than a bottle reffiling stop at the halfway point.

I followed that up with a 10k in 52:40/8:11 avg. as (8:52,8:24,8:10,7:58,7:50)...

RR#2 - I went into RR#2 feeling as though I had a bit of upside on my FTP which I had not captured since moving outside...based on some Tuesday interval riding sessions I re-estimated my FTP at 220 and chose a slightly higher range of power targets ..my target was 155 (150-160 is what I had on my stem)...I completed this ride in 5:21/18.7mph...AvgPwr 149/Pnorm 157 for VI 1.05...Avg. HR 131 (much warmer day, windy but swirling)...Avg. Cadence 86 and TSS 287....this ride was less consistent as I had a number of disrutpions besides the water stop; I flatted @ mile 4 (5min. Change)...and because I flatted so early I stopped at the bike shop for another CO2 & tube (5min)...otherwise solid riding...I definitely felt like I worked harder...I didn't ride JRA as long and I don't think I executed the steady riding/gearing as well...but I got off the bike feeling fine.

I followed that up with a 10k (same course, 5min transition to weight myself etc.)...51:09/8:13 avg as (9:01,8:13,8:08,8:10,7:57,7:51)...and felt great.

In RR#1...temps started cold and out into the wind (49-52)...my return was sunny much warmer (60) and wind at my back I was overdressed on the return but couldn't shed anything...I lost 4.5lbs. My nutrition was drinking 1 x 22oz bottle of Perform/Cytomax per hour and 1 powergel per hour....

In RR#2 I was not overdressed but it was warm the entire ride 55-65...I used the same fueling of 1x22oz. Perform/Cytomax per hour but I took a gel ever 30min. starting at 30min. ...I ended up losing 2.5lbs....

For the race I will be shooting for 2bottles per hour..the only reason I didnot do 2bottles per hour on my RR is related to Logistics...I have 3 bottles available to me ..front torpedo mounted A2...and two rear cages....for my RR's I continually refill the A2...and refill all at the turn around ...one stop...If drink more I have to stop 3x...whereas in a race I grab two bottles at each station...just keep filling the front mount and keep one Perform in the cage.....

So going into my Taper I feel pretty good...but have some questions:

Power:  There is some overlap and how much does 5watts mean either in additional speed or additional fatigue...?

If I use 210 as my FTP...and plug into the tables with a projected finish of 5:50-6:00hrs...I get a GREEN target IF of 69-70% which for FTP 210 = 145-147   or if I use 220 as my FTP = 152-154  ...another way to look at that is to say that if I rode at 72-74% of the Lower FTP 210 that would be 151-154.....if that makes sense...

So????? My RR experience suggest i can race at the 150-155 range...but if I work backwards from the watts back into the table that would suggest I am running at edge? yes or no?  am I over thinking this?  Currently My plan is to put 150-155 on my stem with a real focus on hardcapping the 155 end...thoughts?  OR SHOULD I ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND GO 145-150...HENCE MY QUESTION W0TT DOES  5-10 WATTS MEAN

FYI - My Run Vdot off of a March Half Marathon PR is 49-50...My easy pace and target race pace is 8:45....Texas is a 3 loop course...I plan on running the entire first loop at 8:50-9:00...second loop at target...then run try to hold target or better for the final loop...

Nutrition- a.) 2x22oz perform/hour + 1 powergel every 30min ( I may sub a few powerbars just to get something less sweet)...Is this too much on the Gel side?

Electrolytes:  I did not supplement during my rides but have used SCaps @ Louisville in 2011 & 2012...I was planning on adding S-caps as needed to get about 1000mg NA/hour. (2x perform + 2xgel = 700mg/hour...+1 Scap= 1000mg)

How does the nutrition sound?  

What about run nutrition? To eat or just drink? Thoughts?

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