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Help me plan KQ run in 2014

Julie PfeifleJulie Pfeifle
in Races & Places 🏁⛺

I like Al's post on help me plan 2014, so I'm copying! 

I'm looking for crowd-sourced advice on race plan for 2014, especially which IM to do to give me my best shot at Kona qualifying.  I age up to 55-59, where it *seems* the ladies are starting to slow.

Little background on me - female, 53 (with December birthday), from San Francisco area; triathlete for 20+ years; race all distances, including 12 1/2 IMs and 5 IMs.  2nd year with EN and power meter training - 1/2 IM and full IM PRs last year!!  Married with a daughter finishing up junior year of high school (so college apps next year), and I work full-time (including ~3 hour commute time into San Fran 4 days/week).  

Race details:

  • 5 IMs w/ 1st – IM Wisconsin in 2005 – 14:12, 2nd – IM Germany in 2008 – 12:04, 3rd – IM AZ in 2009 – 11:53 (AG3), 4th – IM Switz in 2011 – 12:30 (yuck!!), 5th – IM AZ in 2012 – 11:35 (AG6, WOO HOO!!!)
  • 12 ½ IMs w/ a PR in 2012 at Redman LC Nat’ls in OK – 5:32
  • Oly PR – 2:31:38 (inc/ 2’ penalty) in 2010 at AG Worlds (altho I heard bike was a tad short); only Oly in 2012 – 2:51, same course in 2011 – 2:42
  • 6 marathons (2 Boston, including the HOT one in 2012) w/ PR at Disney in FL in 2011 – 3:43
  • ½ mary – getting a little slower – PR in 2006 – 1:44, 2012 Napa to Sonoma ½ - 1:47
  • Also, bike raced for first time last summer – several crits, 1 road race, and 1 TT

My strength is my run (been running for 30+ years); weakness is my swim (~1:20ish IM swim).  I seem to do much better on flat, fast courses; lots of people pass me on hilly bikes (eg. IM Switz and ITU long course world champs in Belfort, FR)... I do pass some of them on the downhills, though, and if not on the downhills, a few more on the run! 

I prefer late summer or fall big races, as I tend to take a lot (maybe too much) time off during the holidays and take a while to ramp back up; also, having long summer days is much easier for a worker bee to get early am and post-work training in.

So... what do you think??  IM AZ again?  IM WI?  IM MT?  IM Coz?  Other ideas?  What would be my best bet at the ever elusive KQ slot?  I know I'd have to have the race of my life, and it all depends on who shows up that day, but I do feel like it's within my reach and next year is a good year to give it a go!

As far as the rest of the season, I'm fortunate in that No CA has a plethora of fairly local tris, dus, runs, and rides of various distances almost all year long.  Would love additional ideas on best race schedule to set myself up for a great IM day.

Thanks a ton in advance for any and all input!  Let me know if I can share any additional info.

Julie

 

 



Comments

  • Al TruscottAl Truscott
    My thoughts...although "past performance is no indicator of future results" (meaning you never know who's going to show up at any given race), IM Wisconsin for whatever reasons seems to be less competitive. Its hilly, so a smart racer has a leg up on the bike.

    I suggest an early season HIM, like Oceanside, Wildflower, or St George, to give you a reason to train in the first half of the year. Time for a short break in May. Then IM Wisc, with IM AZ as well as an opportunity for revenge race if needed.

    You're still getting better, this next year may surprise you. In 05, you were 1 hr 35 minutes slower than I was that year in Madison. By 2012, you'd closed the gap to 10 minutes compared to my 2011 time on the IM AZ course. Considering the rate at which I'm slowing down these days, you should pass me next year!
  • John WithrowJohn Withrow
    The description of the race course you described is IMFL. You do better on a flat bike and the timing is pretty good to get the meat of your training done in the summer and early fall. As you know, it really matters who actually shows up at a given race, but last yr, the AG winner of the F55-59 was 11:01:08 and you are already super close to that. The interesting thing was that the 2nd place was 13:08:xx and 3rd was 13:49:xx. In 2011, the top 3 times in your new AG were: 11:38:xx, 12:01:xx, 12:23:xx. The flat run course 'should' also allow your run speed to shine.

    You've also already done IMAZ which might be another good one. Last yr, the top 2 there were 11:06:xx, 11:54:xx. And the yr before they were 11:49:xx, 13:08:xx.
  • Julie PfeifleJulie Pfeifle

    Thanks Al & John... very much appreciate your insights!

  • Paul HoughPaul Hough
    I agree with Al because it should be something after the cut-off date for the year you age up and before Kona that year...so a Sep race. If you learn the EN method to race, then you won't care if people pass you on the uphills. In fact, you should encourage them. That leaves IM Wisconsin and IM Carolina  to be announced next month (Asheville is rumored to be the leading contender).  And if they give more slots to Carolina since 2014 will be the first year race, then it's a no brainer. 
  • tim cronktim cronk
    Julie,

    Looking at your times it appears in the cards , not if , but when.

    I think weather conditions play a huge role , relative to your AG rankings are you better at hot/humid or cool/cold...... I can't handle the cold...

    Weakness----If swimming is your weakness I would rule out IMCOZ since the potential for strong current there ruined many a swim in 2012. Maybe even rule out non wetsuit races. Good news is you have time to work on your swim.

  • Julie PfeifleJulie Pfeifle
    Thanks Tim!
  • Dave TalloDave Tallo
    I agree with Tim on 'not if, but when.' Building on that principle, my advice for a KQ season would have you racing CDA in June, and then Canada or Lou in August.

    If you hit your goal at CDA, Kona becomes your second race and you scrub the August race (or conduct a rather expensive race rehearsal). If your number doesn't come up in June, you plan to absolutely bury yourself on the run at Canada or Lou.

    What are your thoughts on a two-IM season, Julie? You have a huge training history, so I would think you have a better-than-average sense of if this is doable.
  • Dave TalloDave Tallo

    Hi Julie - I had one more thought on your KQ run: european races.  Now ... I have nothing to back this up, but I have always got the impression that the fields in Euro races skew much more male than North American races do, and skew much more towards younger age groups.  (again, this isn't based on any careful analysis or data - it's just been my general observation of the race fields I see).   Even further generalizing, I get the sense that there are more people in the sweet spot of Euro fields who are competing versus completing.  What this ends up being expressed as: huge competitive M 30 through 50 groups, but not so much other AGs.    

    granted ... you never know who is racing.  But, my thinking behind this is finding races where there are simply fewer competitors in your AG that you are up against.  You noted you raced Frankfurt a few years ago, where it just seems like everyone is fast - but take a look at Switzerland (dead flat run, easy travel) or Austria (Stefan can give course intel based on his powerhouse race).    In any case, also take a look at the sizes of your AGs in these euro fields to see how they stack up against US races. 

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