Advice request - dialing-in my marathon pace
Team, I'm looking for some input from the marathon running experts.
As most of you know, I'm doing a run-only training phase in the buildup to my first marathon, the Chicago Marathon on October 13. My goal is to run to my potential, whatever that is. For my training I have gone with an 18-week moderate-volume approach that I won't detail here other than to say it maxes at 65 miles/week and is pretty consistent, e.g. above 50 miles per week every week for the past couple of months, avg 57/week for the past month, that sort of thing. I run 5 or 6 days/week, and the long runs are usually around 18 or so. The plan features 3 20-milers and I've done 2 of those with no issues thus far. Also the group I run with has a 22 miler on their plan so I did that instead of a 17 miler the week before last, again, no problem. So far – knock on a gigantic piece of wood – I'm pretty much injury-free.
I think it's time for me to hone in on what my goal pace will be for the marathon, and I'd like some advice from folks. My objective is to race to my potential, plain and simple. My fantasy is to go sub-3hr but I realize I am super-borderline to pull that off and if I try to do it and fail, I'll probably end up with a time that is far below my potential. After all, I have no idea what to expect in terms of how I feel at various points in the race, etc. so my ability to make decisions on the fly based on experience will be limited. I'm a bit terrified of going out too fast and totally melting down in the last 10k as I understand is commonplace. All that said, I've also "underclubbed" a lot of half-iron runs and finished with 2 fast miles and too much gas in the tank and really don't want that to happen here.
One thing I've also noticed is that however fast or slow I run, I always feel the same fatigue as the mileage builds up at the end of a long run. In other words, if I do a long run at 7:10 or 7:30 pace, I always feel the same at mile 18. So this has me thinking, that it is a waste to go to slow at the beginning (to a point...at some speed I start to be "on the countdown clock").
A few data points to help you understand my fitness and provide input
- Back in March I ran a half-marathon on OS triathlon training alone, 1:26:10, VDOT implies 2:59:46. This was how I got the 3-hour idea in the first place. I've used 3-hr for all training paces in the subsequent marathon build.
- My training plan has one ~10-mi LT run per week with intervals like 4x1.5mi (800m) , 3x2mi (800m) and 2x3mi (1000m). I usually run them in the low 6:20s if weather is low-70s or better. When the temps are into the 80s with humidity I run them in the mid 6:30s. If temps are in the 80's I usually stop for 30 sec at a water fountain during the recovery interval.
- My plan has a weekly ~12mi run with 8-10 miles at MP. I usually run the MP in the low 6:40s, with the logic being that if I want to run 6:51 in the marathon, I better be able to run 6:45 to account for running a bit longer than the course distance, etc. HOWEVER, on these runs I will stop for water a couple of times during the MP segment.
- I have run my long runs with a local training group that targets 7:30 and in reality runs 7:15-7:20. At that pace I feel like I can run forever and my HR is low and doesn't drift upward. On these runs (even the 22-miler) we finish the last 4 miles with a hard effort and my typical splits will be 2 miles at MP then 2 miles closer to HMP (6:30s).
- This weekend I did a really key workout from the Pfitzinger plan. It was an 18-miler with 14 at MP. I used the Chicago Half Marathon as the venue for this workout, and even went so far as to rip the timing chip off the back of my bib to eliminate temptation to "race". Unfortunately based on the logistics there was a 17 minute gap between running 5 miles warmup and the start of the "race". But notwithstanding the imperfect logistics, I ran 5 miles at 7:10 pace, then 13.2 miles of the "race" which I did in 1:28:57. My splits were extremely consistent and although it was not an "easy run" by any means, I felt fine and could for sure have run the next day, i.e. no recovery required. http://connect.garmin.com/activity/372789068
Based on my ability to achieve the workouts and build volume I am really tempted to target the 3-hour goal. Furthermore, it is likely (fingers crossed) that the conditions on October 13 will be a lot cooler than the 70s-80s temps and humidity in which I've done most of this training. But I just don't know if my current workouts point to that goal or not. Also a few of the guys in the Saturday running group ran around 3:05 last year and they are very strong runners and have faster half-marathon PBs than me (running in the 1:22-1:24 range for the half). One of those guys butchered the execution (ran 1:26 for the first half and ended up with a 3:05), but a couple of the other guys ran really even 6:50 splits then had the wheels come off in the last 10k. Another guy ran a 3:01…he was tracking for 2:59 until the last 2.5 miles. And that guy is a super strong runner doing ~70 miles/week.
Thoughts and suggestions are highly appreciated.
Cheers, Matt
Comments
My thoughts:
vDOT has you on the fence, so you are close.
Your mileage should give you confidence.
You are too smart to blow it up, if you don't make it you'll be wicked close.
You will need to run 6:45s all day to get it done (save for a few early miles).
Chicago is sick crowded so you need to get way up to where the "right" folks are.
If you do it right, it will feel easy through 13, and won't feel like work until 16/17/18...THAT is where you make the call about sub-3. Not as in do the math (b/c until then you will be on time) but rather "can I hurt enough to get this done?"
If that answer is yes, you are golden.
PS - don't forget to review your nutrition plan; even sub-3 requires excellent fueling. Good luck!
@ Carol and Coach P - I got lucky and they let me into the "A" starting corral. The time cutoff for that corral is 1:25:59 for a half or 3:10 for a full but when I submitted my request I sent an email requesting "A" despite mising the time by 11 seconds. So I should be around the right people although last year there were over 800 people finished before 3 hours on the clock so not exactly a lonely race!! Actually last weekend using the half marathon for a training run was good practice because there were something like 15 or 20k people in the race, and it seemed like they all wanted to run the first 3 miles in 5:00 pace. I paced it super even and really held back and endured a lot of crowding at the beginning as a result. By the middle miles I was passing a whole lot of people and by the end I was pretty much running around the same speed as the folks around me. Chicago will be even more jammed with people for sure, but I expect the energy of such a big race to outweigh the downsides. I love the big event races!
Re: nutrition plan, for sure I've been practicing that on long runs. Few variations, basically some shot bloks before the gun, a Roctane gel at miles 4 and 8, then gels at 14 and 20. Water to drink. That worked well up to 22 miles (minus the gel at 20), so I'm hoping it will work in the race.