NYC Marathon Pacing Questions

scott dinhofer

trying to figure out what pacing I should be doing for Sunday's NYC Marathon.

I am working off of a 10k run as part of a OLY on 9/29. This was a breakthrough race for me. I rode the bike as one should, all out, not thinking about the run or even that I would run. I averaged 7:26 pace, the run was short at 6.08. I interpolated this out to 10k and plugged into a Jack Daniels Calculator http://www.runbayou.com/jackd.htm (where is the EN calculator that gives you paces for various distances & HIM/IM?) and came up with a Vdot of 44 & a suggested pace of 8:06. Seems doable, not out of reach.

here is the link to my garmin file on the 10k OLY run http://connect.garmin.com/activity/383638315

I also did three long runs (perhaps too long) as follows, note that the elevations are way off as my garmin 910 needs to go back to Garmin.

date	distance	Location	avg pace
22-Sep	21	NY	9:02	http://connect.garmin.com/activity/379496748
6-Oct	23	Kona	8:23	http://connect.garmin.com/activity/387574605
20-Oct	20	NY	8:19	http://connect.garmin.com/activity/393822177

Also had a pretty comfortable run of 8 miles a week and a half ago at 7:57 pace...http://connect.garmin.com/activity/393822153

the 8:05 pace feels about 5 - 15 seconds fast, based on long runs where i did what "felt" right and of course didn't have the adrenaline or people around me. Of course, the 8:23, is a comfortable pace, would finish tired, but not feeling like I raced, if that makes sense.

The 23 mile run in Kona which was run in high 70 degree and humid weather at predawn and sunrise, i felt really good. The 20 miler this past weekend, not as much, but miles 7-14 had some pretty strong short hills that I ran reasonably hard.  This run was planned as a 21 and I just knew that 20 was plenty, (18 would have been good!)

 thoughts, opinions, questions on pacing?

cgres123

I would take the VDot and subtract 2 - 2.5 and use that as your pace.
For the first 5 miles add 15 seconds.
For miles 6 - 20 subtract that 15 sec and another 5 sec for a total of 20 sec.
For mile 20 - the finish run it in or hold on for dear life.
As you know about mile 16 things get interesting so put yourself upfront with a doable pace, after 16 you can adjust a tad but this is the ball park recommendations in the Wiki.

scott dinhofer

Posted By David McLaughlin on 28 Oct 2013 07:00 AM


I would take the VDot and subtract 2 - 2.5 and use that as your pace.

David: are you suggesting to lower the vdot to 42? or to subtract -2.5sec per mile from the vdot pace?

cgres123

Yes your 5k Vdot lower it. So your marathon vdot would be 40.8 or 40.3 if you lower it 2.5 . Sorry for the confusion.

tim cronk

the 8:05 pace feels about 5 - 15 seconds fast, based on long runs where i did what "felt" right and of course didn't have the adrenaline or people around me. Of course, the 8:23, is a comfortable pace, would finish tired, but not feeling like I raced, if that makes sense.

Since you have no recent longer VDOT like HM to go off.... I think you answered it already.... I'm gonna say 8:10-8:15 at a minimum.... Your always capable of more when racing... with those 2 solid long runs in the 8:20 range low 8's could very well be realistic.... Be smart, run your plan, but adjust as time goes on and how you feel....

Al Truscott

Scott - hope this still makes it to you in time...

Couple a thoughts:

• If you can do 8:23 avg pace in Kona for 23 miles, you should demand of yourself to go a bit faster than that on race day ... but not a lot
• I would start out at that 8:20-8:25 after the first mile (who knows what you'l have to do that first mile?)
• I agree with Tim - use your recent history and your RPE (once you get past about 8 miles) to set your effort level on race day; VDOT may just confuse you, hard to calculate from training paces.
• Keep things in check for the first 6-8 miles - if you hear or feel yourself breathing during that time, you're probably working too hard.
• Past mile 8, check your pace, see if you can drop it by 5-10 sec/mile (meaning, go from, say 8:20 to 8:12). If that works without feeling too hard, manintain that pace the rest of the way
• Recognize from there on out, it's Chinese Water Torture, or Boiling Frog Syndrome - your RPE should slowly ratchet up with eaching passing mile, until, in the last 4 miles, you realise - "hey, this feels kinda like a 10K!" If it doesn't feel that hard, GO FASTER!

The worst thing you can do, of course, is get too ambitious, and go out too hard in the first 1-1.5 hours of the race.

I went 3:46 in my marathon this July, going at my LRP; you should be able to go ten minutes faster than that, I think. Gauntlet thrown.

MattAaronson

Looking at the Garmin links it's still a bit tough to tell if you finished those long runs really strong because the elevation data is messed up so not sure. Unless there was an uphill finish, the third run looks like you faded a lot towards the end starting around mile 17. If that's the case, I'd be quite concerned trying to hit an 8:06 average BUT a complete blow-up seems unlikely so the cost of trying for something in that ballpark might be low...start a bit easy as others have said, then by the 10k point figure out what you're running and from then on don't slow down abnd be mentally prepared to hurt. Also I'd suggest to get away from precise pace goasl and zero in on a time goal and some key splits you can use to whip yourself at points along the course.

scott dinhofer

Al & Matt, both good advice. Biggest issue is weight. Haven't been as focused since getting home from Hawaii. While I am up in lbs, I am only 3 lbs above where I was when I did my OLY at end of sept, bad news is that I am 6-10 above where I wanted to be for this race ( and was when I left for kona)

Mentally, that has to away, it is outside the box for race day, just concerned I pacing. I think you both provide good answers. I am going to work up some splits to tape to my watch and gave those I place for a 335 & 345 Mary.

Matt- my garmin is shot, new one in way from them, the barometer went. To answer your q, the last 3 miles of the last long run were uphill, 1-3 pct constant, but yes, I did blow up...

The 23 in kona went pretty good, mile 22 was the steeper grade on queen before turning onto Plano which is a steep downhill at probably mile 22.25 on that run.

The other thing I should point out is that being in diet mode, I looked at the long runs as opportunities for fat burn. I do not carb up before them, only drank water & had one package of shot blocks with me for last six miles. Also, took a salt tablet before each and around half way on each.

Good prerace fueling on Friday & Saturday along with a gu every 5 miles and Gatorade every other aid station, should also have a strong effect. Or at least provide energy to counter the higher weight.

And yes al, this is all about getting to a point on the course that I can will my way through to the end...

Thanks all for the mojo,
Bib# 26770 for those that want to track

MattAaronson

Posted By Scott Dinhofer on 31 Oct 2013 04:46 AM


I am going to work up some splits to tape to my watch and gave those I place for a 335 & 345 Mary.  

 

Get a "Pace Tat". I picked one up for free at the Chicago Marathon expo and I'm sure NY will have someone either giving them away or selling them. I cut off the top and only used the bottom since I didn't expect to be worried about particualr splits until afte rthe halfway point. See pic below (it is of the inside of my forearm):

MattAaronson

Posted By Scott Dinhofer on 31 Oct 2013 04:46 AM


Biggest issue is weight. Haven't been as focused since getting home from Hawaii. While I am up in lbs, I am only 3 lbs above where I was when I did my OLY at end of sept, bad news is that I am 6-10 above where I wanted to be for this race ( and was when I left for kona) 

 

Irrelevant at this point as you know. Nothing you can do about it and if you do try and do somethign about it during your taper (e.g. starving yourself) you have a good chance of screwing yourself. Stay the course at this point.

MattAaronson

Posted By Scott Dinhofer on 31 Oct 2013 04:46 AM




The other thing I should point out is that being in diet mode, I looked at the long runs as opportunities for fat burn. I do not carb up before them, only drank water & had one package of shot blocks with me for last six miles. Also, took a salt tablet before each and around half way on each.  

  

This is a topic for another post, but an important topic. Doing this for every long run is, in my view, not a great idea. I'm doing a write-up summarizing my marathon training and I just took a note to raise workout fueling as an issue...

MattAaronson

Posted By Scott Dinhofer on 31 Oct 2013 04:46 AM




Bib# 26770 for those that want to track

Yes, you can bet many of us will be tracking you. So if that makes a difference to your motivation at around mile 22, know it's happening.......................................

scott dinhofer

Posted By Matt Aaronson on 31 Oct 2013 02:03 PM

Posted By Scott Dinhofer on 31 Oct 2013 04:46 AM




Bib# 26770 for those that want to track

Yes, you can bet many of us will be tracking you. So if that makes a difference to your motivation at around mile 22, know it's happening.......................................

Exactly why i put it out there, nothing like onlooker pressure!!!