Ironman Run Pace - realistic expectations
I am racing IMLP in less than 2 weeks - my first full distance IM. I have been scouring the wiki, race reports, and whatever else I can get my hands on to help me formulate my race plan. I've read the coach's protocols on race execution for the IM. I've stuck to the training plan (for the most part) and am looking forward to the big day.
The thing that has piqued my curiosity here is what to expect from my run...realistically. If I were to go by what the suggested pacing dictates (for a VDOT=48/49), I would have a phenomenal run. But, something tells me that this is not realistic at the end of the day. Even after sticking to the correct watts on the bike and nailing nutrition, it seems almost all people's pace falls off at some point. Sometimes drastically. Is this a function of overestimating your capabilities on the bike? Or is it a case of setting the wrong pace on the run?
I guess what I'm asking is am I best off just sticking to the protocols in the wiki and adjust on race day as needed (Heart rate gets too high - slow the pace, etc)...especially this being my first IM?
Comments
I am sure the WSMs will chime in as well.
A conservative approach in da haus is to subtract 2-3 Vdot points from your 5 km Vdot and use that Vdot to plan your run target at that EP. So in your case, use a Vdot of 45-46 which gives you an IM run pace around 9:15 per mile.
A number of peeps use heart rate to regulate their IM run — however, without IM runs to fine tune your approach, this is a little problematic.
I try and use pace and heart rate to limit the damage I do to myself in the first half of the run.
Good question! There are many things to consider:
As a first time Ironman athlete, your number one goal should be to execute the best race you can, with your definition of proper execution being which sets up the run. And specific to IMLP, it's about setting up that last 4-5 miles of the run. So whenever you find yourself about to make a run pacing decision on the course, always frame it within the requirements of this last 4-5 miles.
I've got nothing to add to what Peter and Rich have already said about race day guidance. But .. you are now entering a two week period when you can drive yourself nuts over-thinking the upcoming race, or dwelling on it obsessively. You're ready, your body's ready, and you just wanna race tomorrow, and since you aren't training as much, your excess energy is building up. Find some other stuff to occupy your mind - watching the Tour, earn some SAUs by going out to see a movie or eat, limit your time on the EN forums, whatever, just get the race out of your head for at least 23 hours every day.
Like Rich says, follow the rules and don't get ahead of yourself on race day, and you're gonna do just fine. Remember, "Process is our most important product."
I find this chart to be accurate for some best case scenario window estimates.... However it does not factor in heat, hills, wind.
Looks like the header got cut out in the picture file.... WHEN are the photo uploads going to become EASY? very annoying
Anyway the first column is your vdot, 2nd column is 10k and HM times, 3rd column is 10k/HM paces , 4th column is HIM predicted run times at 90% and 95% FT , last column is your IM predicted run times at 75% and 80% FT.
@Peter - I've heard this guidance around here on occasion, but it's not published in the wiki. But very helpful guidance
@Coach R- great detailed info. I discussed the run with Coach P at LP camp and he was on the same page as you with this. Thanks for reinforcing.
@Mike R- great overall info - with 6 under your belt, you still haven't forgotten how it feels going into the first - I appreciate this.
@Al - my favorite advice - I'm an "over thinker" (as most of us are around here). Lots of self questioning going on. Am I ready? Will I get through this? Etc. I understand the point of the taper, but boy is it bad timing in terms of leaving us with too much extra time to think and think. Your point is taken - thanks!
@Tim - that chart makes sense, but this is what I'm referring to in terms of finish times - I'd be thrilled with those end results, but I'm not expecting them. You are one of the few here who are able to stick to the splits throughout the IM run. Yes, heat, wind and hills can all be factors for me on raceday, especially in LP. My biggest foe may be overall fatigue. I guess time will tell, since my RR was only 1/4 of the run. Thanks!
My plan will be start with z1+30 and see how that feels. As Rich mentions, the downhills heading out town (and the crowds) will probably need me to really focus on going stupid slow. I had to focus on my RR to do this getting off the bike since I started at 60secs faster than I should've. At that point, I'll have to take other things into consideration. How do I feel? Where is my HR? As MIke R, I cannot use pace as a whip! I'll use it as a governor. Thanks again for the input - super helpful!
Rich: Tim, I inserted the table for you. Thanks for sharing this!