Matt Aaronson race plan for 70.3 Steelhead
I haven't committed a 70.3 race plan to paper in a while but I want to be held accountable for my performance in this case.
Heading into 70.3 Steelhead this weekend I'll admit I don't have many goals. Qualification for Austria will be all but impossible and the long range weather forecast indicates good but not ideal conditions…so a PR is probably unlikely. Really, then, this race is about honing my execution, experimenting a bit, and having some fun. It will be my last race in M3539…time to AGE UP!!
Here's my gameplan:
- For the first time…latex tubes!!
- Swim like it's a race. My times in the pool are pretty well identical to years where I've had ~34' half-iron swims but this year I've been disappointed with 36-38' swim times. I know I have to improve my swimming, but there is a problem around execution where I think I've just been afraid to push at all on the swim. I'm not going to go all-out or anything crazy, but will make sure I'm putting real effort into the swim.
- Push to IF of 0.87-0.88 on the bike. Both races this year have been 0.85 and both races I followed with a run within 2 seconds of MP. So I can probably give a bit more effort on the bike. If conditions are good this should yield sub-2:20 and a bike PR, which would be a bonus. Assuming wind from the NE as forecast, the last 15 miles of the bike will be fast on very smooth pavement and I will keep good wattage and hopefully find out later that the last quarter of the bike was smoking fast.
- I realize a run PR is unlikely in 80+ temps and with the above swim and bike efforts. But I want to push myself to "let the dog off the chain" and get a bit more uncomfortable than I'm used to. My run split PR of 1:29:15 was set at an RPE level where I was able to have a 9-mile conversation with a fellow racer as we ran together. I should push harder than that. As to the specific strategy, I will make a gametime call based on assessing if a sub-4:30 PR is possible as I exit T2.
…if it is possible but requires a run of 1:26-1:28 range then I am going to implement a strategy I have never used before, and after settling in and getting to the top of the hill at mile 1.5 I am going to target a very aggressive pace in the mid 6:30s and see if I can hold on. I will adopt the mentality of "I do this once a week in training runs…so let's do it today".
…if a PR isn't possible (i.e. requires a sub-1:26 run) or is more likely attainable (i.e. requires a run of 1:29 or more), then after mile 1.5 I will target ~6:50 pace for the first pass through the "loop" portion of the course. For the second loop I will target a strong negative split including beginning my finishing push at about mile 10.25 when I get to the top of the big hill. Starting at the return "stick" part of the course it is full-throttle for the last ~1.5 miles, major downhill, very fast.
It will be interesting to see if putting some real effort into the swim comes back to haunt me on the run. I fully expect if my HR is jacked coming out of the water it could take me up to 10 miles on the bike to get to my targeted wattage and get my HR down and under control. That would certainly undermine targeting over 0.85 and might really screw me on the bike split overall. But the question is if I could recover to negative-split the bike (power-wise) and then follow it with a good run.
Should be interesting…
Comments
Matt - a few thoughts:
Have fun; good luck.
Wish you all the best and BRING I ON
@ Stefan, my plan is to leave before the rolldown so even if I get a slot I won't be taking it. I lot of reasons including schedule, the possibility of doing IMWI, and mostly a massive SAU deficit at this point in the season.
@ Tim, actually for this one I'm racing the clock if I think I can nail a PR. If I need to run a 1:29 I'll pace it to run a 1:29, i.e. more conservative than if I need to run a 1:27…which I will try but face the very real risk of blowing up, cramping, etc. This is new territory for sure.
@ Jeremy, someone once told me if you've never blown up on the run before, then you haven't pushed hard enough to learn about what that feels like so you can push right to the limit and not go over the next time. Perhaps tomorrow will be the learning experience….
@ Al, yes, RPE for sure. At this point when I run I'm pretty much always RPE.
Oh, those who say "nothing new on race day"...never got a new bike on race week...
BRING IT ON!!!!!!!
Get mean, get angry and now BRING IT ON!