IM Race Selection for Best Shot at Kona?
Before aging up out of the 25-29 AG and into the 30-35, I'd like to give Kona qualification my best shot. While it's an incredibly lofty, audacious goal, and I'm well aware that much will need to happen aside from just race selection, I'm trying to understand if my chances would be better at a particular IM race.My plan is to do 2 IMs in 2015. (I'm likely to have a significantly lighter work schedule...) Later half of the year (June-Dec) is best for maximum training.
So, I guess my questions are: 1. Is there an Ironman race (or 2 or 3) that is easier to qualify for Kona as a 25-29 AGer? 2. As a very strong runner, is there an Ironman course that will best suit that strength? Conversely, is there an Ironman course that I should steer clear of because AGers in general are super fast?
A hot course might suit me well also. At 5'8" 135ish, I seem to do better in hot weather than bigger fellas.
I know there are a lot of hypotheticals here, but figured I'd pose the question to the haus to see what knowledge can be shared. Thanks for thoughts.
Comments
I would look for a race that exploits your strengths. If you are a very strong runner, I would try for a course with a more difficult run. Execute the bike and crush the competition on the run!
Rob, qualifying to some extent is always a crapshoot and simply depends on who shows up. I would avoid AZ and FL because everyone with a shot at a 9:30 seems to show up to see if they can go 9:30. Plus, both run courses are simple and don't punish the dumb and don't reward the strong/smart. I would look for a bike course that will thin the field, with a run course that will finish off the rest. CdA, Can, LP, MT and Wis jump out as some good options to explore.
But I like the idea of taking a shot before the 30-34 tidal wave of participants. Best of luck.
+1 On this strategy. I'd throw IM Tahoe in there if (a) it's still around and (b) you can afford 3 weeks in advance to acclimate to altitude.
"Tricky" bike courses offer EN athletes a distinct advantage. Tricky means one of two things: either a lot of shorter, sharper hills and maybe a lot of turns (lot's of chances to make dumb mistakes), or a lot of doing one thing for a long time. It's funny, I've KQ'd @ WI & CDA - V 2, which are the first type and IM CDA v 3.0) and AZ, which are the second type. AZ and CDA v. 3 (along with FL, and MD, I assume) favor the athlete who can ride VERY steady at the CORRECT IF and STAY aero for 5+ hours, and then because you've trained to do that, run without difficulty to your potential. It's surprising what staying aero for that long will do to some people's hip flexors, buggering their run. It's not so surprising how many people ride 1-2 % harder than they should, with no respite via downhills, and then have trouble with the run.
WI would take a little under 10 hours, CDA under 9:40, and AZ under 9:30, I'd guess.
I thought Triathlete Magazine or Lava had an article last year about this very thing. Which races favor which style of racing/athlete. If I recall, the article even broke it down to how far down the roll downs went.
Ironman Races:
Click here to see the list of Ironman races around the globe. Keep in mind that these regional championships offer more qualifying slots, but also tend to be more competitive:
–Ironman Asia-Pacific Championship: Melbourne, Australia, March 22, 2015 (75 slots in 2015)
–Ironman European Championship: Frankfurt, Germany, July 6, 2014 (100 slots in 2014; 75 slots in 2015)
–North American Ironman Championship: Mont-Tremblant, Quebec, Canada, Aug. 17, 2014 (75 slots)
Ironman 70.3 Races:
-Ironman 70.3 Mandurah: Western Australia, Nov. 10, 2013 (30 slots)
-Ironman 70.3 Asia-Pacific Championship: Auckland, New Zealand, Jan. 19, 2014 (30 slots)
-Ironman 70.3 St. Croix: U.S. Virgin Islands, May 4, 2014 (30 slots)
-Ironman 70.3 Hawaii: Kohala Coast, Hawaii, May 31, 2014 (72 total slots including 28 international, 24 Big Island and 20 States slots)
-Ironman 70.3 Eagleman: Cambridge, Md., June 8, 2014 (30 slots)
http://books.google.com/books?id=-e67HyiDNqQC&pg=PP1&lpg=PP1&dq=triathlete+magazine+kona+qualify&source=bl&ots=aArk0HNsHJ&sig=5nlg9yN5VEAYrXrAjnRmisvrX9U&hl=en&sa=X&ei=5DrkU9y0GNPeoASI04L4DA&ved=0CDIQ6AEwAzgK#v=onepage&q=triathlete magazine kona qualify&f=falses)
All the 70.3 kona slots have gone away except one race.
Texas will have 75 slots for 2015. Tremblant back to the normal amount.
My current attitude on race selection, as I think Al said at some point in the past, do whatever race is convenient for you. Being a big guy, theoretically a flat bike course and cool temps would suite me. However, in real life, for my 10 irons, I have come as close to KQ on hilly courses as flat ones. As Mike R. states, it is a big crapshoot at any one race.
So personally, from now on, I will be selecting courses mainly based on convenience (time of year, location, family nearby, etc.) and fun factor.
I still subscribe to the belief Robin quotes from me. But, all other things being equal, the "harder" courses probably offer a better chance to qualify than the "easier" ones.
Notice how Al puts harder and easier in quotations? There is no such thing as easy you just go faster and harder.... "Harder" only means there are more decisions to be made thru your day that will dictate the outcome therefore favoring the smarter athlete not necessarily the fittest athlete..... The "Easier" courses may have less decisions , but the one decision will be pacing all day , easier to monitor but still difficult to decide just how hard....
FWIW being a small guy I have found I definitely have strength in HOT races based on consistently placing higher in the rankings... Yep still suffer in the heat ... Just less than the big guys.... But I should be relatively stronger on hilly courses as well and this has not yet proven the case having consistently placed higher in flat races?
Great thoughts/advice by all. Rob, if you're really going to do two IMs next year, then it makes sense to start with an earlier one, then do the second later in the summer/fall. If your goal in IM #1 is to go learn how to race IM and not be overly dedicated to the KQ chase, then TX makes a ton of sense. It's a Key race, so the support/mojo will be high. The course isn't physically that difficult (no big climbs, flat run), but psychologically it's a great, tough, learning opportunity (wind, crap roads, heat and humidity). And the 75 slots will give you probably one more chance in your AG.
But . . . if your goal is to take a swipe at Kona your first time, I would take the contrarian approach. Last year, Whistler got some extra Kona slots, and it seemed like everyone in the top 10% of the IM talent pool showed up. One of my buddies (a 9:30 guy at AZ) went 10:14 at Whistler and was 29th in his AG. Another, slower friend realized that all the fast guys were going to Canada, so he picked an underappreciated race around the same time (Louisville), threw down a 10:04 and took 2nd in his AG. I suspect the same thing will happen this year at Louisville, with a lot of fast folks chasing the extra slots at Tremblant. And if that logic extends to next year, and all the top talent goes to TX for the extra slots, you might find a thinner talent pool (the top guys are always present, but the potential roll-down times may spread out more quickly) at CdA.
* Of course, winning your AG makes it a whole lot easier …..
That's the funny part. in '13, Keish Doi won the AG with a 9:46. I had a 10:10-something. That's a completely different area code, imho. If I raced the same race a year earlier - when it was the inaugural race in the new location and there were double the number of Kona slots, I don't think I would have qualified ... forget being near the podium. My theory: faster dudes in larger numbers were attracted by the larger number of slots in 13, and then disproportionally avoided it this year. Next year it will self-correct. Once the slots dropped off, so did the larger numbers of dudes in/on the bubble, and then some. (of course there are probably other factors - Boulder skimming off some Pac NW racers, Canada having a reputation as a "hard" bike course etc).
I would propose the smart slot chaster would actually plan to do Texas in 2016 - after the boom, and after the slots drops back to 50, but while it has the short-term reputation of being hard to get a slot, as a result of the inflated competition in 2015.
Or they would get on a plane in September, take five or six sleeping pills, wake up on the other side of the world and race IM Malaysia. Even though it has terrific proximity for Australian racers, I bet some of the 40 slots will be unclaimed.
Just a thought for Rob … You might want to check out a few posts from July-Sept 2009 in Matt Ancona's blog. He won the 25-29 AG @ IM WI that year, using EN training and racing to great effect. His progression and insights as an age contemporary of yours might be more useful than us OFs … I'm sure if you reached out to him, he'd be glad to chat, he's very open and helpful that way:
http://ironmancona.blogspot.com/2009_07_01_archive.html
This thread (here, on EN) is a lot of fun, a great way to fantasize, dream. I haven;t read the Slowtwitch thread (do you have a link?), but I love it when my competitors start thinking of themselves as a "biker" or a "runner", or, for that matter, start thinking of me as one or the other. I'm a triathlete, I try to maximize the sum of my abilities and training given the constraints of the course and the weather. As a general rule, athletes who try to maximize their bike prowess will tend to blow themselves out on the bike and let me pass them earlier on the run, while "strong" runners will go out too fast on the marathon (or not understand how to pace themselves on the bike), and let me pass them later in the run. "Triathletes" know how to meter out the effort steadily all the way to the end, roll with the punches and improvise when adversity strikes, and don't rely on any one quality to achieve success.
I'd agree that the additional slots at IMTX are likely to bring the best talent to the race. Seems that's been the trend. With that in mind, and to Mike's point, I think it makes the most sense to choose a (potentially..) under appreciated race around the same time -- e.g. CdA. From what I've read (runtri.com's assessments) and from posts here, it also sounds like the CdA course couldl suit me fairly well - challenging run and hot. Do correct me if I'm wrong about this though. Timing and location both are OK by me.
While I'll be in the 30-35 AG by IMTX 2016, I do think Dave's on to something with the logic described here -- ("I would propose the smart slot chaster would actually plan to do Texas in 2016 - after the boom, and after the slots drops back to 50, but while it has the short-term reputation of being hard to get a slot, as a result of the inflated competition in 2015.) Seems that the same could been the case for Mont-Tremblant in 2015 since it will go back to 50 slots. CdA and IMMT are pretty close to one another in timing though, maybe 6-7 weeks between the two? Guessing doing both would be tough, so likely best to pick just one.
Racing Malaysia isn't out of the question. I'm interested to see the results from this year's race. If they're anything like the 2010, (for 25-29: 1st 10:06, 2nd 10:44) I might need to add it to the calendar. Few colleagues of mine actually moved there recently, so would make for a good trip.
Thanks again for the tips and please continue to share thoughts. Love the insights.
Al - Thanks for sharing Matt Ancona's blog. I'll give it a read this weekend. Sounds like he'd be a great resource. I'll definitely reach out.
But Choo itself sounds like an easy swim, medium bike, hard run, good weather. There are a bunch of NA IMs within 6 weeks of it, so the competition will definitely be diluted. But whether the cream of the AG elite will be at Choo, LP, CA, Boulder, MT, MD, Moo, Tahoe, or Louisville is . . . a crapshoot.
Anyone who is a really good swimmer looking to gain time in the water should race elsewhere.
Will be interesting to see the EN turnout for 2015. We had a large contingent this year and not that I was anywhere near the KQ money (23rd) I got bested by 3 other EN athletes in the 40-44. Good stuff though!
I'm betting / I've heard rumors that they are considering moving the bike course into TN vs north Georgia. So we may be looking at a completely different bike course for 2015, but the run course certainly will remain challenging.