HIM Run Goal
My HIM runs to date have been less than stellar. Improving, but not stellar, or even good. My best HM time is 2:22, a 10:59 pace. My best HIM run pace is 13:XX. (Quassy) I'd say the HIM was a little more hilly than the HM, but that is still a big gap to me.
As I'm trying to set realistic goals for my HIM run, I thought I'd ask the experts... My RR run was a 10:53 pace for 5.5 miles (after a very hilly but appropriately paced .78IF bike) but it was pancake flat. Honestly, I'd be thrilled with a 12:00 pace for Timberman, but past experience in HIMs indicates that is a lofty goal, yet other results would indicate it should be more than doable.
Thoughts?
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It's very accurate for me and all of my training buddies ...
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B1LFhH52RFZacTVqUGVDWnc2TzA/edit?usp=sharing
So for your HM PR of 2:22 I'd use the vDOT=30 which would result in a possible HIM run in the range of 2:24 - 2:32
Matt- High VI could be part of it, esp for last HIM (Quassy). Those hills were killer and most of the time required way more watts than my "plan" dicatated even just to stay upright leading to a high VI. I should def. be able to control that better @ Timberman.
JB- Hmmm, hard to say. Just. Can't. Run. It is consistent from start to finish, but esp on hills. I think I need to do a flat HIM and see how that pans out for me..... Here is the Garmin data from the Quassy run (lots of walking up the hills, which I had planned for, but I also planned on the running part on the flats would be faster!)
http://connect.garmin.com/modern/#activity/511981483
How are your training brick and RR workouts? Do you have similar issues? or are you fine? If you are fine during the bricks and RR's, maybe slow down your bike a little during the race by a few watts to set yourself up for the run
Your HIM target run pace should be your (real) marathon pace. I say your "real" marathon pace, in that if you'd just been doing a bunch of 5K training, you'd have an unrealistically high VDOT for MP. If you have a GREAT run, you might be a little faster than your MP...I assume this is the number that Matt Aaronson dug out for you. If not, I'd be curious to know how he chose one.
To be blunt, though, you are going a bit slower than some folks. You don't mention your bike time, but if your total race time exceeds about 6 hours, perhaps it would be that much harder to hit MP in that you are just out there for longer. If that's the case, you might want to pad the MP just a little bit.
I know my vdot is def stronger on 5ks vs. HM so 11:06 won't happen for sure. Timberman is a little hilly but not quite like Quassy.
I guess I can just do my best....
Your run experiences resonate with me — I can't hold my 5 km derived Vdot estimated MP in a HIM run. Just like I can't hold my 5 km derived Vdot estimated EP for an IM run, even if those runs are dead flat.
Here is what I do for a HIM run. I subtract 2 Vdot points from my 5 km derived Vdot and then use that revised Vdot to estimate my MP and use that for pacing my HIM run.
So in your case, your Vdot is 30, so I would use a Vdot of 28 to estimate your MP.
As a result, your target MP falls from 11:02 per mile to 11:39 per mile.
The EN advice for IM runs suggest that some peeps need to subtract up to 3 Vdot points from their 5 km derived Vdot to get doable IM run pace targets.
That said, some peeps have a higher Vdot as estimated from HMP/MP TTs vs 5 km TTs (I think Matt Aaronson is one?).
This is the reason why EN suggests we do a HM at the end on the OS to get a handle on the relationship between our 5 km derived paces, and what we can actually run in HIM and IM.
FWIW, I am currently doing the Run Durability/OS hack to address my lack of run durability and am becoming cautiously optimistic that my HIM and IM runs will be closer to paces estimated from 5 km TTs.
Kim and I have communicated before re: running...Kim, you know what you need to do here...
Sorry Kim and Matt, I misunderstood.
I was also remembering that all my past HIMs have been hot n sunny. Sunday is expected low 70s and maybe some rain (hopefully on the run) so that should def help!
I still have lots of improving to do on the run but this was about 14' faster than my last HIM run (although that one was harder)