Need help dialing-in my marathon pace, 2014 edition
Well I thought I'd be a one-and-done marathoner but here I
am, 2 weeks out from my second marathon and my second Chicago marathon at that.
How and why I ended up here is a story for another thread (http://members.endurancenation.us/Forums/tabid/57/aft/16495/Default.aspx),
but the fact is, I'm here and I need to set my pacing strategy for the race.
Here is the "fact base":
- Ran a 2:57:47 last year with a negative split. Conditions
were perfect (the course record was broken that day).
- Last year I did 18 week of run-only training. This year I
did tri training until my last half-iron on Aug 10, then took a week off, then
a week of unstructured running, then started a 7 week build that looked almost
identical to the last 7 weeks of last year's marathon build, plus added 2 bike
sessions/week of 60 and 75 mins.
- This year I'm running my weekly LT intervals ~5sec/mi
faster than last year on average (targeting 6:20 and usually in the 6:10-6:15
range). These runs are weekly and typically 11mi with 6mi of LT intervals
structured as 6x1mi(400), 4x1.5mi(800) or 3x2mi(800).
- This year I'm doing my weekly long tempo runs ~10sec/mi
faster than last year. These runs are weekly and typically 13mi with 10mi at
MP, although I have run them based on RPE and generally the "MP" is
run around 6:30/mi. Yesterday it was 6:31 into a light headwind for 5 miles
outbound, then 6:20 with tailwind for 5 miles back, for example.
- This year I have had no failed workouts vs. several last
year, although part of that is cooler conditions I think. Due to schedule
issues and work travel I've ended up doing my LT and tempo runs on back-to-back
days most weeks, and this hasn't been a problem. I think another factor in the
quality of my workouts may just be coming in "fresher" to the endgame
of the training vs. lots of cumulative fatigue.
- Last year I did 18 weeks of only running with most weeks
55mi and topping out at 60. This year it has been a compressed build and weekly
totals have been: 51, 52, 52, 60, 51 (planned this week). Last year I did 3
20-milers and one 22-miler. This year I did a 23-miler but no other really long
runs. My long runs in the past 5 weeks have been: 19, 18, 17, 23, 20 (planned
this week). So, much less overall mileage in the legs.
- Key workout #1: Both this year and last year I did a
"key workout" adapted from Pfitzinger. The workout is 18mi with the
last 14 at marathon pace. My adaptation was to do 13 at MP but do it in a real
race situation (the Chicago Half Marathon with 25000 people). So I ran 5 mi
easy before the race and then got into the starting area. Both times I ripped
the timing chip off my bib to prevent any temptation to race.
> Last year I did the 5mi warmup at 7:11 pace and the
half marathon portion in 1:28:57. I screwed up the timing so had a 17 minute
wait in the start corral. Conditions were good but not ideal (a bit warm ~70
degrees and quite humid). My HR slowly but steadily increased 30bpm from mid
150's to low 180's over the course of the 13 miles although pace was very even
splits. Recovery from that run was quite bad and I totally failed my LT workout
the next week and generally has sub-par runs that whole week, although temps
that week were abnormally high in the 80s. http://connect.garmin.com/activity/372789068
> This year the warmup 5mi was 7:04 pace and the half
marathon was 1:26:27 (6:35/mi). I timed it better so there were only ~4 mins in
the start corral. I was certainly not "racing" but negative split
with the last 4 miles at 6:31, 6:35, 6:29, 6:29. I was deliberate about not
dropping down to 6:15-6:20 range for the last 2 miles, which I certainly could
have done. Conditions were a bit cooler this year in the mid 60s. HR profile
was more consistent over the course of the 13 miles but finished in about the
same place (I got to a higher HR earlier and held it for longer, essentially).
Recovery this time around was a non-issue and I hit all of my downstream
workouts with no adjustments at all. http://connect.garmin.com/activity/372789068
- Key workout #2: Both this year and last year I did my last
long run 3 weeks out from the marathon. It did it as part of a noncompetitive
event without any taper (both years it was the run capping a 60-mile week and
this year I did a VO2 bike the day before plus 4-mile brick run). It's a
point-to-point run with pace groups and both years the conditions were good for
running although this year was cooler (40s last year, 60s this year). Slight
tailwind both years. The one difference is that this year I hadn't done a
22-miler so instead of just doing the run I also ran to the start which ended
up being 3 miles, so 23 miles total for the run.
> Last year I started the run with my usual weekend
7:30/mi pace group which runs at around 7:20/mi, but I got into a good groove
and dropped the pace group around mile 6 or so and did the rest of the run
slowly accelerating: 3 miles ~7:15, 7-8 miles just above 7:00, 7 miles in the
high 6:50's. HR drifted up slowly and steadily and ended in the mid-170's
although was below 170 until around mile 16. Recovery was normal and I hit all
my downstream workout the next week. http://connect.garmin.com/activity/379584478
> This year, knowing that I'd end up dropping the 7:30
pace group and being alone for much of the run (which defeats the purpose of
paying for the event, right?!!), I decided to run with the 7:00 pace group. If
there was a 7:15 I'd have done that one but there wasn't. My concern was less
being able to keep up and more the potential recovery requirement if I ran 23
miles too hard. I ran to the start at 6:45 pace and not surprisingly the 7:00
group started fast and didn't slow down, running pretty much mid-6:40's the
whole time. With 5 miles to go a bunch of guys took off and I stuck with them
for 2 miles (6:33, 6:28) but then decided that I could really screw myself for
my downstream workouts if I finished at that pace (remember, they were doing 20
miles, I was doing 23) so I finished with 6:36, 6:41, 6:41. Amazingly, HR was
in the low 160's until the last 5 miles. At that point it quickly got into the
low 170's but not any higher than that. I was VERY concerned about recovery
from this workout but it ended up being a nonissue and I hit both my LT and
tempo runs perfectly on back-to-back days the next week. http://connect.garmin.com/activity/595978825
So with all that in mind (and feel free to ask me more…you
know I've logged it all), I have to decide about target pace for the marathon.
Initially I was going to target 3 hours like I did last year, thinking my
training was so much less that even the 3-hour barrier would be a stretch.
After a few workouts I realized my speed was better than last year so I sort of
fixated on 2:55 (6:40 pace…so you need to run around 6:38) as a good stretch
target, with the big question being if my lack of overall mileage and long runs
would leave me without the required endurance for the full marathon distance.
At this point I'm inclined to shoot for 2:55 assuming
conditions are good. After the 23-miler I feel like I can hold the pace for
long enough that if the wheels come off beyond mile 20 I can still salvage a
good race.
But there is something else in my head that wonders if I
should be trying for even faster. I realize that sounds nuts but:
- based on my tempo run paces I should be looking at a ~6:30
target
- the 'key workouts' have been very fast with virtually no
recovery cost
On the flip side, my HR seems to start getting dicey at
around 6:30/mi, i.e. "the shit starts getting real" as Coach P would
say. However, I wonder if I run with my HR in the low to mid 160's the whole time
if I'm just leaving time on the table in a huge way…probably something like 10
sec/mi. And going out too fast is basically the same as a "banking
time" strategy that can blow up spectacularly and has left many a runner
disappointed and in pain over the years (notwithstanding that Pfitzinger
presents a compelling case that for the non-elite a negative-split marathon is
almost certainly a sub-optimal performance because your LT pace decreases in
the second half of the race due to increased recruitment of less-efficient
fast-twitch muscle fibers).
In one sense there is no risk to the aggressive strategy. I
already have a sub-3:00 PR. I've never blown up in a race and I actually think
that learning what it feels like to get beyond your limits might be a valuable
experience. On the other hand, I'm pretty convinced I have a pretty
decent-sized PR and a sub-2:55 waiting for me if I execute conservatively and
intelligently, and I'll be kicking myself if I throw that away.
Is there a way to execute this where if I just settle into a
"feel good" ~6:30/mi I go with it and slow down if by mile 13-15 it
turns out that was just too fast...or would that already put me in such a hole
that the blow-up would be brutal and spectacular?
Any thoughts from the team on this would really be most
appreciated. I'm really struggling with what to do.
Comments
Whether in a tri or stand alone event, folks at your level get better by using internal signals, not external metrics like pace, to reach the limits of their ability.
I've done a lot of thinking. I'll need a bit of luck. The conditions are forecasted to be almost perfect except for the wind direction that will be from behind miles 2-8 then bad headwind for many of the middle miles including ~18-23. As a result, and since I have already done a very well-executed marathon with sub-3 hour finish and thus have nothing to lose, I will assess how I feel at mile 2 and if I'm feeling good I plan to pursue a very aggressive pacing strategy.
- Mile 0-2: easy, probably 7' miles, let people pass, try to settle in
- Miles 2-8: no "speed limit" and go purely by RPE to mile 8 north with the tailwind
- If the 8-mile split is 50-53 and I'm feeling good, I'll work moderately-hard southbound miles 8 to the halfway. Again, RPE is the metric.
- If the 8-mile split is slower then I'll start targeting a revised pace based on what I think my body will give me for the next 18 miles. Hopefully in the ~6:45 range.
- If at the 8-mile split I'm feeling like I burned too hard, I'll dial-back and run a couple of 7' miles...that's not going to kill my race and might just keep me in the game
- At the halfway I will revisit the goal time based on my split and the pace during miles 8-13. It will feel like work now regardless.
- Remainder of the race will be pace-based to hit the revised goal.
There should be no tailwind from miles 8-23 (actually 23.5). That virtually assures a positive split race taking into account the pacing strategy above. The mile 2-8 strategy is the real risk because it could mean the difference between a positive split and a blowup. But I'm going to take the risk. I have already done a very well-executed marathon with sub-3 hour finish. Not getting a PR if I can't pull this off will be a bummer but far from the end of the world. Honestly, I'm not sure I'd be satisfied or even happy with a 1-2 minute PR where I played the race conservatively and even split the whole thing. I'm a diesel that goes long at a good pace...my problem is absolute speed not usually "not slowing down" so let's test it out, eh?
Now if any of you are reading this, track me on line and hold me accountable!!!
Good luck … I;ve got my own marathon to turn tomorrow
Matt, I read thru this when you first posted and had planned to comment but figured others much smarter than me would chime in but didn't.
Anyway, here's what I have based on personal experiences in open marathons. Next week will be marathon #23 and I have run Boston the past 4 years. I'm not nearly as fast as you and never will be. My 3:28 PR was 1 year ago by over 3 minutes on a tough rolling course 11 weeks post IMLP with only 8 weeks of training. See MDI_2013_Actual_Schedule.jpg below
Pre-EN I adopted Friel’s HR training zones and still use them because both physiologically and by RPE they just make sense to me.
What I have learned about myself is that my all day pace HR is 153 - 158. My race HR is in the mid to upper 160’s and I can hold 163-168 for almost 3 hours before I crap out provided I ease into it and don’t spike my HR early. I also know I can do 20 to 25 minutes at or above 172 and the dark place where it really hurts starts at 179. But if I burn those 172+ matches early I don’t have 3 hours of Zone 3 (163-168).
My suggestion is to primarily use HR and RPE as your upper limiters and pace secondarily as a whip.
Effort – First 1/3rd @ comfortably hard; middle 1/3rd @ moderately hard (ABP); final 1/3rd expect it to hurt, very hard to ‘hang on for dear life’.
Be aware that your Garmin will read faster than official time because the distance will be longer than you actually run, see below:
Garmin: 3:28:47 @ 7:54, 26.4 miles
Official: 3:28:46 @ 7:59, 26.2 miles
This is not due to missing tangents, it is the fuzziness of GPS technology. I always race marathons 5 sec / mile faster than my planned finish pace to compensate. So if you want a 6:40 pace your Garmin should be reading 6:35ish for an overall average. I do not use current pace, ever.
Below is a busy graph of my HR, Max HR, minutes spent in each HR zone, and pace. The primary feature is the area plot of HR zones. You can see how I start mostly in zone 2 early then transition into zone 3 as the race progresses. I nearly blew the race from mile 13 thru 17 because I pushed too hard too early.
See MDI_2013_Pace2.jpg below
Area plot = HR zones
Red line = Average HR
Red error bars = Max HR
Green line = Pace
Pace in the chart is all over the place because this race course has over 1200’ of ascent overall. There are hills in the beginning, hills in the middle and from mile 20 to 25 is nearly all uphill to the high point on the course. It is very challenging.
Best of luck with wind and crowds tomorrow. Race like you mean it and leave it all on the course. If you do put it all out there, it will be hard not to be satisfied with the result. And you just may surprise yourself with what you are capable of. I believe you can run 2:55 or better. The only way to know is to go out there and try.
Congratulations on the PR!
Split Time Diff min/mile miles/h
05K 19:46 06:22
10K 20:14 06:31
15K 20:19 06:33
20K 20:24 06:34
HALF 01:25:00 04:17 06:17
25K 15:46 06:31
30K 20:47 06:42
35K 21:22 06:53
40K 21:28 06:55
Finish 02:53:37 09:14 06:47
Congrats Matt!
Race report up: http://members.endurancenation.us/Forums/tabid/57/aft/16976/Default.aspx