I have not contributed to this thread much, but I've discussed this with a lot of people.
One of the big hangups is that people get really whipped up about the exact numbers....but they depend in such detail on the type of work and on how accurate the FTP (or its equivalent) is for each sport. The phrase "all TSS are not created equal" can be translated "The TSS model is a decent but flawed mathematical construct that should be taken qualitatively, not quantitatively."
I'm willing to believe that within the constructs of a typical IM plan there is a general CTL range that is more or less ideal, in exactly the same way that there is a general TSS on the bike ride of an IM that appears to be ideal...but you can't nail it down to some exact number for which one size fits all.
And of course, any decent taper will bring your TSB to about -(25-33%) of the CTL. So the question, "what is the ideal TSB" needs to be coupled to what the CTL is at peak.
And of course.....as someone once said to Coach P, "Past performance is the best predictor of future performance." :-) I think that's especially helpful for long term athletes who are trying to figure out how they taper best. In recent years, I've been around enough pretty decent swimmers (another sport where taper is very important), where it's clear that there are individuals that respond outside of the standard deviation and need shorter/longer/steeper tapers than others.
Thanks for the discussion. Yes, we know there are many, many things that are more / as important as the actual training, tracking that training, etc. But I think TSS and the PMC offer a system to help keep ourselves on track and perhaps strategically schedule our training so that we're at our peak CTL levels within X weeks of our goal races. And I think this ~130tss/day number offers us a bit of a benchmark or goal around which we can have our own conversations.
This is where I am right now with these tools:
I spent some time over the holiday weekend backfilling my TP.com account with my Oct-Dec '14 numbers, as before I only had data in there going back to Jan 1. I then just swagged 50 TSS/day for my starting levels for 10/01/14...good enough.
I'm keeping a combined PMC but only tracking bike and run, not swimming, in this chart. I'm in a unique situation where aggregating my swim into this chart isn't very useful, until probably 10-12wks out from my race. In the meantime, I'm closely tracking my combined bike and run PMC number, but have also broken them down into bike and run-specific charts, for more granularity.
See the notes I've added to the chart below. I think dips like this really highlight the value of simple consistency over time and the potential cost of things that take you off your consistent game.
Bike PMC below.
I see a few things here:
The power of being able to ride outside, particularly hard weekend rides, all year. That is, because I live in an area where I can bang out a 3-4hrs, >200-300 TSS ride on any weekend, this can make up for shortfalls in consistency. When you compare this to my running PMC below, you can see how a handful of BIG weekend rides can generally maintain the position of the CTL vs the run CTL
Note the near vertical lifting of my entire cycling CTL line through the application of monster volume during the ToC camp.
Run PMC
Note the significant impact on running CTL that simply "not running" can have. The period of late Feb to early March was me getting very sick and then hosting my nephew for a week. The net was a big drop in my running CTL that took me until ~early April to get back.
You can see a similar drop/cost in early May, as function of (1) post IMSG recovery, then (2) rolling right into ToC where I think all I could manage was two very easy runs.
Likewise, you can see the rapid affect of my run week last week through today, when I just ran, often. Last week was ~36mi, my biggest in years, with today being my 7th run in a row. I've got 42mi scheduled this week, with a simultaneous "just keep it steady" level of cycling, to provide another boost to my run CTL.
And so where I'm at with my own training is to leverage the stair-step potential of scheduling run focus weeks and bike focus weekends. That is:
Scheduling a big run week and keeping the bike at a level that facilitates this run week. For example, an 8mi Saturday run followed by a 2.5-3hr bike vs a 4mi run followed by a 4hr ride.
Then finding opportunities for BIG bike weekends to shift my entire cycling CTL upwards. At least two of these will happen automatically for my WI and Chat camps and it's easy for me to schedule an additional 2-3 of these between now and the end of July (my IMWI camp).
Finally, I'm not sure if there is value, for me, in including my swim in the combined chart. IM racing for me is so much about improving my run, cycling to my potential, and then largely showing up with the swim that's always in my closet. So I want to focus on a number that combines bike and run and isn't clouded by swimming TSS.
For you guys and people watching this thread, I think that with enough data and similar screenshots posted we can all begin to wrap our heads around the potential of strategically scheduled TSS pops, through Big Bike Weeks, Big Tri Weeks, training camps with RnP, run focus weeks, alternating bike and run weeks, and other strategies to compliment or refine the most common method which is to just do the training plan as scheduled.
And if nothing else, looking at these your own charts should motivate you go get out the door and "just run" sometimes when you really don't want to
I've been lurking here a bit. Interesting stuff. I don't have TP but there is a similar tool in Strava called Fitness and Freshness that I think is close. (But currently avail only for bike). A lot of the conversations around this prompted my Mini BiG Bike Week this past weekend. I have no issues doing that but I'll prob need a Run Focus week like Rich mentioned too. Bummer.
I find TSS/PMC very pertinent to what we do.... Keep in mind it is just ONE tool , not the end all be all.... Everyone can benefit by learning and tracking these metrics, not just FOP/KQ'ers...Pay attention to what happens when increasing time or intensity week over week and again what happens on the off days or tapers.... In the context of FOP/KQ'ers there is no doubt "similarities" in training load that result in higher average CTL etc...
Some of my take aways after listening to that webinar Bob posted again and doing some refresher reading. 1. Multiyear Progression is needed to be able to handle increasing training load/stress.... 2. All TSS is not the same... We hear this and we say it, but what does it really mean? TSS = Metabolic Cost , Glycogen Used , Energy Expended.... What it doesn't capture is muscle damage, tendon damage, life stress etc.... Not a perfect system but better than nothing... 3. Personal Red Zone- Compare to Oneself NOT others- Fitness, Years Training, Age, Gender, Body Type and Size play a big part here determining each individual's ability to handle training load/stress... 4. CTL, ATL needs to be cycled to continuously improve... IOW a period of time off , light training , etc is required to bring these down before another major build... This is a bit of a conflict with the Multiyear Progression.... 5. NOT peaking TOO early .... Something to pay attention to with BBW , BTW , Camps and doing EPIC fun stuff , if you really are trying to maximize yourself for ONE particular event.
I have learned to make a brief note in my WKO+ journal/calendar when a wko goes bad like no mojo, blowing up, extra hard RPE than planned, etc.
Now, after a couple of years, I see a trend.
It doesn't always correlate with the progression from my EN plans. I can almost predict which weekend will be ugly. Not always, but often. As P pointed out, sometimes this has more to do with the cumulative effect from family/work/life stresses added to our wko stresses. Thus, making the bad weekend a little more nomadic on the calendar than I'd hope for.
But, if it's been a few weeks and all of a sudden I have a crappy weekend. I usually can go to PMC, see that CTL/ATL have been climbing, TSB is lower than I 'expected', and I take it 'ez' for a couple of days. That doesn't mean couch surf but it does mean play it by feel out there in the tri world and not train thru a brick wall just to hit ALL the intervals.
Ahhhhhh, let the analysis paralysis begin! Below are my thoughts on tapering for IMCDA in 2.5 (!!!) weeks. I welcome any perspective and insights y’all may have!
In short, this post is coming full circle on my reflection of last year’s build and races. http://members.endurancenation.us/F...fault.aspx I’ve felt I was over tapered for the last two years of racing and this year I’ve been looking at loads a little differently. Specifically, I’m looking more at percentage of loss of CTL, rather than TSB and targeting ROUGHLY a 10% reduction with the least for swimming, a bit more for by the bike and the most for the run. Although I don’t agree with all he offers, this guidance from Joe Friel is what got me thinking along these lines. http://www.trainingbible.com/joesbl...-form.html
I’ll save the training analysis for another time… at this point it is what it is! However, for the sake of conversation a couple of key notes:
* My bike and run training load has been pretty high for a while. Consequently, no matter what I do with projecting the taper load, my TSB gets really positive really quickly and I don’t have a pretty “peak” to taper off from.
* I did back-to-back camp weekends on 05/23 and 05/29 whereby we actually made a big loop from Black Diamond to CDA to Whistler and back home to Black Diamond. This came about because #1: I really wanted to get on the CDA course prior to race day and #2 I was presented with the opportunity to coach a camp for our local team the following weekend at Whistler. I couldn’t bring myself to pass either up, although next year if I have the same opportunities I won’t over book myself. When something had to give, it was invariably work (still employed - hooray!) or the swim.
* Of all the 112s (ish) I did the best was at Whistler which I backed up with another ride of similar TSS the following day. I will take that IF and confidence to CDA. How this relates to the taper is I may forgo the day off after the RR this week in favor of keeping the Sunday ride.
Year-over-Year PMC
The Swim: At the risk of digressing into training analysis (and subsequent therapy), the impact of the logistics and travel of back-to back camp weekends impacted my swim the most. Sometimes there just aren’t enough hours in the day. That being said, I don’t have any particular concerns about giving a little volume bump in the last two weeks and anticipate it will sharpen up for race day. Also, I use a flat 20 TSS points per 1,000 yards as I don’t have a lot of confidence in the TSS calculations.
The Bike: Here’s where I’m most intrigued. The bike load seems really heavy pretty late to achieve this desired drop. This is where I’m most considering backing off a bit, regardless of the numbers. Note I selected 06/14 as the peak even though it isn’t the true peak due to the camps week. Of course, part of the drop being more than I would have liked is the camp volume falling off by race day. It was for this reason I pushed the camp one week closer to race day this year.
The Run: Of all three, this one makes the most sense. The volume seems right, the numbers line up and although the TSB is pretty high, I wouldn’t add more to those last two weeks.
The Last Two Weeks: This is what I have penciled out VERY roughly.
Thanks in advance for taking a look and any insights you may be able to offer. If it works out hope this helps someone else down the road!
Thanks! I was just thinking about our conversation last week and was about to ping you. Your pictures didn't come through. Send them to me at rich@endurancenation.us and I'll get them added to the post.
Arg, good thing I work for a tech company, eh? I actually watched the screencast 2x and everything! For the life of me I couldn't get them to plop into that "PMC" folder. Oh well. Sent via e-mail!
I used to watch TSS very closely but have backed away from it in the past year or so. I still track and watch it, but more as an extra piece of information.
I find my fitness tends to swing quite a bit and therefore the inputs required a lot of tweaking. I found myself doing so much estimating at times I just got the feeling that it just wasn't that exact. Some things I just estimated too - strength training for instance, I just gave myself 1 TSS point per minute. Not necessarily accurate, but always consistent. Also, because of swings in bike strength from tri to road I would get different TSS for similar efforts. So I could do a hard road bike workout on the trainer and post monster watts or ride really hard on the tri bike outside at 40 or 50 watts less but still be wiped out. To me, mentally the same value, but not the same for TSS.
I have 10+ years of data slugged into TP & WKO+. For my past three IM TX results - peak TSS/d leading up to the race and ending time:
2013 135 max. tss/d finish time 11:11:xx
2014 128 max tss/d. Finish time 10:23:xx
2015 138 max tss/d. Finish time 10:53:xx
Other areas that really affect my training are stress and fatigue and they don't get picked up in the equation anywhere. This usually manifests itself with the lack of sleep. If I'm working on something important I'll often stay up late but still get up early in the morning to get the workout in. Three or four days in a row and I'm shelled. This kind of stuff is really hard to see on a PMC chart. I used to wear a fitness tracker to measure sleep but it was a hassle and it wasn't that accurate.
As to WKO 4.0 for the Mac I've seen a bunch of posts on it and I'm sure it's coming, but it's just way behind schedule. The longer the wait, the more irrelevant it becomes, in my opinion. TrainingPeaks is now good enough and other products like Golden Cheetah continue to erode the WKO user base. Like Al posted above, I'm a Mac convert, but have a PC in the garage with Computrainer, Trainer Road, the the Sufferfest videos which I use a lot and then WKO, which I rarely use.
@Jen -- thanks for sharing! Do you have your numbers for IMCA last year, as I know you had a great race there. Would be interesting to compare where you were for IMCA'14 vs IMCDA'14, though there may be some cloudiness in data caused by you racing 2x IM's, recovery, etc.
It makes completely intuitive sense that the swim, bike, and run should have different taper / CTL reduction trajectories(?) and I think the direction we're going is to use tools like this thread to help people explore what works best for them, and your modeling through IMCDA and your race experience in a couple weeks will be a great data point for all of us!
Update on where I'm at, observations, etc:
Since ToC I've kept my cycling volume largely static while focusing on my run. My last 4wks of running have been 36, 42, 44, and 50 miles (!!) last week. Anything north of 35mi is uncharted territory for me, I haven't seen those numbers since about 2002 or so, I believe. Last week was a bit of stretch but no pain, no injuries, a lot of confidence built and I feel a little stronger, more fluid on the run each week.
I've done about a 75% half-assed job of modeling out my training for the next 4wks, which you'll see in the chart above and TSS charts below. I have some observations about this exercise that I'll share below and then go through my next ~8-12wks in more detail. But the modeling is reflected in the scheduled running you see above for the next few weeks, which yields 40-46mi per week. What I learned last week is that in order to get into the high 40's I need to run longer on the weekend, before my ride, which really just kills my motivation for the ride, getting out the door in a timely manner, etc. IOW, a 4-5mi pre-ride run has about zero impact. But a 7+mi run definitely has downstream effects, largely as a function of poor time management and motivation that lead to a not-so-great long ride...for me. So my run-heavy weeks will coincide with vanilla weekend cycling volume, for me, which is about 3hrs each day...but more on that later.
Anyway, below is my run PMC and you can see a very nice lifting of the CTL line, from a peak of 43.6 before IMSG to a 53.8 today. I'll tighten up the modeling for next 3-6wks but I should be able continue this climb into the low to mid 60's, through continued running frequency and moderate volume, with fartlek/hilly tempo style harder running that happens organically as a function of the routes I choose to run.
Running PMC Observations:
My sense is that running CTL is a good reflection of running endurance and durability, not necessarily speed. That is, I feel I have much better endurance, a 7-8mi run is no big deal at all now. My paces for longer runs have steadily been decreasing. However, my sense is that I haven't seen a commensurate increase in my VDot. That is, I feel I'm more faster at longer stuff than I am faster at shorter stuff, which is only natural. Last Thursday I did a ludicrous 14mi climbing run with nearly 2k of gain. This Thursday I'm running 16mi flat to get a better feel of where my long run pacing is now. And I need to open up the browser and register for an early July half marathon I've had my eye on.
The Bike
As I've said, I've kept my bike TSS and volume relatively static since ToC and you can see that in the chart below. Note that my CTL has actually decreased from 90.1 at the end of ToC to 77.8 today. However, I reaped a nearly 10-15w instant FTP bump from ToC. For a guy my age with my cycling experience (tons of miles) to still experience a bump like this after a one week all-in investment is pretty revealing about the value of camps like this, I feel. Second, I lost about 3lb during the camp and other 2lb or so in the past month. The net of the FTP increase and KG decrease is a tasty w/kg increase (from about 3.8w/kg to 4.1w/kg, ballparking, without bothering to do the math), resulting in a much better experience on all of the climbing I do. This is reflected in my times on my local TT hill:
18:48 at 308w before IMSG
18:23 at 318w last Wednesday on a "heavy" day for me, at about 162lb vs the 158-159lb I'll likely be at tomorrow.
Cycling PMC Observations:
The cycling PMC doesn't capture / truly reflect (1) and increase in FTP and (2) increase in w/kg. That is, it's easy to look at the position of the lines above and think I've lost fitness. My endurance might be a tick below ToC (I doubt it though) but my FTP and w/kg have see a significant boost. The net is that because the PMC's primary input is TSS and TSS for AG'ers is largely static from week to week as a function of largely repeating the same flavor rides each week, it's a poor reflection of the attendant increase in FTP that's the result of this training. That is, I know that in the OS everyone's CTL is probably relatively flat but FTP rises nicely, because the PMC doesn't truly capture the value (from an FTP lifting perspective) of the interval sessions.
The cycling PMC responds to big volume pops vs consistent volume. For example, this week I'm dropping my run volume down by about 10mi (only about 90') but I'm doing a 6-6.5hr, >340 TSS ride on Saturday and a ~300 TSS ride on Sunday. You can see this in the significant lifting of my entire CTL curve that's kinda hidden behind that data box above. This weekend will take me from about 79 CTL today to 87 CTL by Sunday. That's a pretty big boost from only a two day investment.
Related to these cycling observations is my body composition. I've learned that due to the nature of the food that Joanne keeps in the house it's tough for me to eat more than about 3.5-4k calories in a day. The result is that my Fri-Sun routine (I get more more than 50% of my weekly volume in those 3 days) results in a nice 1.5-2lb weight loss that feels manageable. It's not difficult to extrapolate that out through June, July, into August, be confident I can safely reach a goal weight of about 150lb, do the w/kg math on that, compare that to where I was for IMWI'11 and have the motivation to keep on keepin' on. The lesson here for everyone is that focusing on the PMC numbers without also focusing on improving body composition and moving the w/kg dial upwards is a huge missed opportunity.
Changes / The Plan Going Forward:
FTP/Interval Ride:
My usual Chantry routine is #1 @ ~.98-1.0 IF, #2 @ max effort, ~1.05-09 IF, #3 as 1' ON, 1.5' OFF. Note that I subtract 7% from my watts up this hill get my on-the-road bike, flat ground FTP. Subtract 10% from the tri bike numbers (get the same watts road vs tri bike on this hill, climbing in the hoods) to get my tri bike FTP. I've been doing ^this^ since about 2005 which is why the IF numbers may seem a bit off . Going forward I'm going to do 4 x 12' @ my best effort, with intent of racking up 45-48' at >320-325w vs the 18:30 I'm getting now at 315-320w. I'll conclude the summer with a TT where my goal is 17:19 @ >335w, one second faster than Sawiris . I think my wattage PR from Back in the Day was 335w on the P3.
Weekend Volume Pops vs Hard Centuries
I have at least 3-4x weekend volume pops scheduled organically as a function of my IMWI and IMChat camps + a couple easy to schedule monster climbing rides across the summer. I'll use these pops to lift my CTL curve, per my observations above. When I'm not doing ^this^, my weekend will be:
Saturday: create a 100mi Strava segment down the bike path to the beach and just TT that thing, setting a new goal each week. 4:20-30.
Sunday: 3-4mi easy run and then a very repeatable (mentally) 2.5-3hr climbing ride, 3-4k swim
The Run:
On the Non-Pop cycling weeks, create a running schedule of 45-48mi, based on what I learned last week with my 50mi foray.
On the Volume Pop weeks, create a running schedule of 38-42mi.
Does anyone use Rubitrack for the mac? http://www.rubitrack.com/features.html I have been using it and it works well and gives training stress measures for short term and long term training stress. My research suggests that the training stress measures are supposedly the same to Training Peaks but you can keep your data locally instead of in the cloud.
http://home.trainingpeaks.com/blog/arti ... ing-stress RubiTrack's calculations of Effective Power, Training Intensity & Training Stress Load are virtually identical to TrainingPeaks' NP, IF and TSS, respectively.
I have not paid the money for training peaks paid features since I use Rubitrack and I was just wondering if anyone else had any experience with using it for this.
Does anyone use Rubitrack for the mac? http://www.rubitrack.com/features.html I have been using it and it works well and gives training stress measures for short term and long term training stress. My research suggests that the training stress measures are supposedly the same to Training Peaks but you can keep your data locally instead of in the cloud.
http://home.trainingpeaks.com/blog/arti ... ing-stress RubiTrack's calculations of Effective Power, Training Intensity & Training Stress Load are virtually identical to TrainingPeaks' NP, IF and TSS, respectively.
I have not paid the money for training peaks paid features since I use Rubitrack and I was just wondering if anyone else had any experience with using it for this.
Looks interesting. Since there's a free 14 day trial, I'll play with it for a couple of weeks and see what I discover. It would be nice to unload myself of the Windows 7 netbook I keep around solely for WKO+.
Another interesting tool that is available for free in GoldenCheetah http://www.goldencheetah.org/ It offer for the bicycle part most of the analytic that TrainingPeaks does. I started using it after an article from DC Rainmaker recommending it.
IMO, adequate analytic software for the Mac-dependent triathlete has yet to be developed. Golden Cheetah, as noted, is primarily written for the cyclist; adding in running and especially swimming workouts to get a proper PMC is problematic, but I'm willing to be schooled in that if someone can show me it is equivilent to Training peaks/WKO+ PMC for all three sports combined.
My 1-2 hours so far with rubiTrack leads me to believe it is not yet ready for prime time. For just one example, there does not seem to be a standard definition for FTP in the program. There are zones to be adjusted for pace and power, but there is no indication how those zones are used to calculated PMC values. There's also no way I can see to set initial values; there's no way to customize "seasons" for analytic purposes, and so on. Bottom line, my CTL in rubiTrack is currently 142, no matter how I adjust the zones. In TP/WKO+, my CTL is 122. That's too much of a difference to be useful for me.
Reading through the RT forum, it looks like the Normalized Power equivalent (Effective Power, ePower) was just introduced six weeks ago. Also, the imports of files from Strava and Garmin connect results in a lot of oddities, such as only the first Lap being displayed. And it is unclear if all the data is being used for PMC calculations in that case (I suspect it is).
Thanks for the info Al, I am new to the concept of training load and just having a couple of year's worth of data to look at. I have been using Rubitrack for over a year to keep my workouts on just because I am skeptical about keeping my data in "the cloud" with no local backup. I will look more closely at the training load metrics and see what I can find out.
Al, I found out that if you have the Preferences-Advanced-Import/Update Training Thresholds checked Rubitracks 4 will generate new athlete log entries whenever you import an activity, and it can mess up your data depending on what you import. You might delete the data that you imported and reimport with that option unselected and see if it makes a difference.
Also, this is a data point of one but I racked up TSS of 780 over the weekend and was scheduled to test again on Tuesday. I passed on Tuesday and tried to do the test today but my clinical judgement is that there is some significant recovery needed yet before I will be able to put up a reasonable test.
After a big bike weekend like that I find that it makes me tired to swim and run also, how do most folks recover and resume regular activities after an epic bike stretch like Blue Ridge Camp, Tour of California, or a long 3 day bike weekend?
After a big bike weekend like that I find that it makes me tired to swim and run also, how do most folks recover and resume regular activities after an epic bike stretch like Blue Ridge Camp, Tour of California, or a long 3 day bike weekend?
Monday of Wk16, after the big weekend scheduled in wk15, is a day off. I think we also have a note in the Tues workout to maybe turn that one down also. ToC is another beast, requiring more recovery. I know it did for me.
The thread that never dies.....I've been subscribing and learning but now know enough to contribute. I'm an analytical person by nature so am intrigued about how the PMC can be applied to further improve my training. I'm six weeks out from IMWI and am feeling stronger than I ever have but honestly started worrying a bit when I look at my PMC and see a CTL of 107 can compare it against Coach R's today along with the correlation that 140 is the magic number for Kona. I pulled some old data which I found very interesting that validates the point that a PMC should only be compared when you have a large base of data AND it should not be used for comparisons across athletes.
For IMWI '13 my numbers looked like this on the day before the race...CTL 72.2 ATL 27.2 TSB 41.7. And with this fitness I put up a 10:10 IM good for 7th AG and missed Kona by 90 seconds (the one roll down).
My FTP is up about 20 points since then, VDOT is up 2 points, and I'm overall stronger. My PMC numbers, while lower than the previously mentioned benchmarks, are much higher at CTL 107.9 ATL 161.1 and TSB -42.4 all with four solid weeks of training remaining. This was the perspective that really helped me understand where I am relative to the 'old me' and will be looking to drive that gap even higher in the coming weeks.
I have read the posts thus far, which are very helpful. My question here is about my current fitness. If I am reading this correctly, my current fitness (CTL) is approximately the same now as it was prior to IMCDA. That seems odd to me since I have been sitting in bike focus for a month, and even though I have hit every work-out, still substantially less than the IM build.
I ask because I am curious about adding more races in 2016, but up to this point been under the impression that one could not stay at peak fitness for prolonged periods of time. This chart seems to suggest one can (if I am reading it correctly).
Secondly, if correct, does this not make an argument for a less painful IM build?
For what it is worth, I feel great. My legs are tired at the end of the day, but upon waking I am refreshed. I am running faster for longer than I ever have. That is contrasted to the IM build, when I needed several days off just to recover from exhaustion from the program. I would love to do a race right now to see how if this feeling translates into results, but that is not in the cards unfortunately.
Doug, let's analyze this chart a bit, then see what conclusions can be drawn.
Your Chronic Training Load peaks @ about 70 TSS/day before the IM, and has been plateaued at about 60 since then
Your Acute Training Load during the IM build was in the 100-120 range in May, then dropped into 80-100 TSS/day.
Your Training Stress Balance was in the minus 20-25 range for a month before IM CDA, rose above zero for three weeks after, and now has been hovering around zero for the past 2-3 weeks.
I don't know if this chart included swimming, but I assume it does include both running and biking. If it does not have swims in it, , and you were swimming 3.5 hours a week, your CTL before CDA might have been about 10-15 higher.
My conclusions:
I would not expect you to feel exhausted during your current training regimen; a TSB of zero means you are just treading water, and not getting "underwater" with fatigue. but not really losing any fitness.
Now for the depressing news, no way to sugarcoat this: a CTL of 70-80 before an IM is not really all that fatiguing, nor is it a sign of top-end fitness. It is not uncommon to see CTLs in the range of 110-130 about 2 weeks before an IM, and some hot shots around here (see: Jenn Edwards; Tim Cronk) get routinely get above the 140 mark.
The good news: you have a good opportunity, *if you train consistently for the next 2-3 years* of moving your IM-ready fitness to a higher level simply from training more. Think of the whole process as a continual spiral upwards, each cycle building on the last. You are literally "training to train". Don't take this as meaning you should go out right now and try hitting right now an ATL in the range of 140-170 (what top-end IM athletes are routinely doing during an IM build). rather, each build, try and get your TSB up another notch, say to the 90-100 range next time, then 110-120 the time after that, etc.
As an exercise in learning the value of consistency (I know I have) and the potential long term cost of inconsistency:
Schedule in TP a template week that you know you can execute week after week. You can estimate/eyeball TSS for each workout from previous workouts.
Then just copy this week out each week for about 8-12wks and see how that affects your PMC line and numbers. Be sure to create a custom date range that extends into the future. Make bike and run-only PMC charts. Maybe take a screenshot of these so you can compare them to the changes below.
Then go back to ^these^ weeks and maybe schedule a couple run focus weeks, where you add 1-2 runs per week, maybe add a few minutes/TSS points to each workout, etc. Maybe drop the bike down a tick to accommodate...or not. Then check out these combination of (1) run frequency and (2) run volume expresses itself over time. Take a screenshot.
Maybe reset everything back to your original template 8wks and then pick a long weekend or two where you go REALLY big on the bike. Watch how this dramatically shifts your entire bike curves upwards.
I've done these exercises in my lead up to IMWI and it's really driven home the value of (1) running frequency over applied consistently for weeks and weeks and (2) the downstream value of picking a couple weekends in my build where I go big on the bike.
Finally, understand that the concept of the PMC built around "the more you do, the more you can do." I need to dust off the netbook where I think I have my WKO files from 2011, my last period of IM training, so I can compare. But I can tell you that the combination of (1) very consistent, high (for me) run volume, (2) my ToC exploits followed by consistent training on the bike and (3) this consistency applied week after week has built me up to some very high CTL numbers. More importantly, I'm just able to absorb much more work now than I was a few months ago, because I've done a lot, over months and months, increasing my ability to do a lot of work. For me, the charts, darts, and graphs, just help me visualize what's going on, where I'm headed, and help motivate me.
In the end, where I'm going with my own training, as I experiment and will have conversations with Patrick when we do our annual rewrite with the plans is:
Months and months of consistent, get it done training to build the curves and the CTL that allow you to...
Safely jack up the ATL at key moments of the season, which...
Dramatically shifts the entire CTL upwards, which...
You then build on/maintain going into race day.
I think I may have just talked myself into trying to put a 60mi run week next week...
Here is my PMC 1 month out from IM Wisconsin. I am now basically where I was when I crashed. I plan to do a big bike week next week and I still have a 20 mile long run. Hopefully I will get another 20 or so points to my CTL. Best I could do!
What Rich said! I. Never spent much time looking at PMC until this thread got me thinking more about it. I really like it because it shows those long term costs and benefits of changes in your schedule. I find myself now chasing a few extra TSS by an extra run, longer ride, etc when it doesn't impact my downstream workouts.
I also really like planning out my future workouts to see how my numbers will evolve. You can see a big jump in May when I did TOC and right now have CTL of 130 and will peak around 142 as I begin tapering for IMWI which I feel pretty good about.
Appreciate the feedback. Very instructive. As much data as this chart provides, clearly there are more data that generate the full picture. Comparisons between FOPs and BOPs aside, the daily 70/ATL100-120, and - 25 TSB was exhausting for this one dude. The taper fixed nearly all of that. How i feel now is roughly the same as I felt post-taper.
My question remains, however: provided that my current daily TSS is about the same as pre-IM, and my ATL is within spitting distance of the pre-IM, could one suggest I am nearly equally ready/as fit to do an IM now as I was pre-CDA?
Here is my schedule TSR running up to 11/8/2015 Austin HIM (advanced plan). Did my best to estimate TSS for work-outs, but admittedly much of it was guess work.
Curious, looks very aggressive to me (relative to the IM build earlier this year.
My question remains, however: provided that my current daily TSS is about the same as pre-IM, and my ATL is within spitting distance of the pre-IM, could one suggest I am nearly equally ready/as fit to do an IM now as I was pre-CDA?
My thoughts on this as a generic question, not about you specifically at this time. "Not all TSS points are created equal", when it comes to race readiness. It's quite easy to imagine someone training exclusively for short course, with a PMC which looks like yours. But without the weeks/months of long rides/runs/swims @ IM race pace or race pace plus, all that Training Stress will not make for a pretty picture on IM race day.
I used to think about my "routine" potential IM performance, meaning what I could do with the standard maintenance workout schedule, no bikes longer than 2.5 hours, runs longer than 80 minutes, or swims longer than 45 minutes. I could certainly *finish* an Ironman with that training, but my times would be 15-20% slower than if I had trained for 10-12 weeks focused on an IM. My experience is that I lose most of my IM-specific fitness within 5-6 weeks of starting my taper even if I keep training at a moderate level. So when I am doing multiple IMs in a year, such as this one when I've got 11, then 5 weeks between races, I'll take about 3-4 days of no work, a weekend to start the juices flowing again, and back at full training within 10-12 days. I've never found a way to get to all of those IMs @ peak fitness. I've got to pick one, and do what I can for the others. This year, I'm working on making the middle one be that peak.
So, to answer your question, unless you have continued doing IM focused long swims/bike/runs, no you are not as ready as you were June 28th. The PMC is not that sensitive, as different types of workouts can produce the same TSS levels, but have you ready for different types of events. I'll repeat my new favorite aphorism: "Ironman is easier to do, and harder to get right, than most people imagine."
At Rich’s (Kona bound!) request here are my final numbers and thoughts for 2016.
A few observations:
- Not all TSS points are created equal. We know this, but with two extreme days it was particularly noteworthy in the bike numbers. At IMCDA I struggled to turn in 246 TSS points and got off feeling like I’d overcooked it, no pun intended. Conversely, where I was borderline hypothermic in the first 30 at IMC miles I had 322 TSS points, built power throughout the day and got off feeling GREAT.
- In the spreadsheet many of the “peaks” were from the build to IMCDA, not in the rebuild to IMC so the days out were 45 or so.
- I’m pretty much over the TSB figure. It turned to a positive figure by the Wednesday AFTER each race simply based on the math with CTL I’ve been carrying. We all know that nobody feels any kinda fresh on the Wednesday after the race! I’ll be sticking with the percentage of CTL reduction math.
- I felt a lot better at IMC but there are a couple of variables at play. One could attribute it to being more tapered, but with a 70 degree temperature difference and much better execution at IMC it isn’t exactly a double-blind study. I’d bet on temperature and execution rather than an over extended taper based on how flat I felt in prior years.
Takeaways: I’m going to shoot for the same targets I shot for at IMCDA this year. I’ll say “no” to a few non-tri things so I can hit those numbers more precisely. Oh and I’ll be sending an offering to the weather Gods.
Comments
One of the big hangups is that people get really whipped up about the exact numbers....but they depend in such detail on the type of work and on how accurate the FTP (or its equivalent) is for each sport. The phrase "all TSS are not created equal" can be translated "The TSS model is a decent but flawed mathematical construct that should be taken qualitatively, not quantitatively."
I'm willing to believe that within the constructs of a typical IM plan there is a general CTL range that is more or less ideal, in exactly the same way that there is a general TSS on the bike ride of an IM that appears to be ideal...but you can't nail it down to some exact number for which one size fits all.
And of course, any decent taper will bring your TSB to about -(25-33%) of the CTL. So the question, "what is the ideal TSB" needs to be coupled to what the CTL is at peak.
And of course.....as someone once said to Coach P, "Past performance is the best predictor of future performance." :-) I think that's especially helpful for long term athletes who are trying to figure out how they taper best. In recent years, I've been around enough pretty decent swimmers (another sport where taper is very important), where it's clear that there are individuals that respond outside of the standard deviation and need shorter/longer/steeper tapers than others.
Thanks for the discussion. Yes, we know there are many, many things that are more / as important as the actual training, tracking that training, etc. But I think TSS and the PMC offer a system to help keep ourselves on track and perhaps strategically schedule our training so that we're at our peak CTL levels within X weeks of our goal races. And I think this ~130tss/day number offers us a bit of a benchmark or goal around which we can have our own conversations.
This is where I am right now with these tools:
Bike PMC below.
I see a few things here:
Run PMC
And so where I'm at with my own training is to leverage the stair-step potential of scheduling run focus weeks and bike focus weekends. That is:
Finally, I'm not sure if there is value, for me, in including my swim in the combined chart. IM racing for me is so much about improving my run, cycling to my potential, and then largely showing up with the swim that's always in my closet. So I want to focus on a number that combines bike and run and isn't clouded by swimming TSS.
For you guys and people watching this thread, I think that with enough data and similar screenshots posted we can all begin to wrap our heads around the potential of strategically scheduled TSS pops, through Big Bike Weeks, Big Tri Weeks, training camps with RnP, run focus weeks, alternating bike and run weeks, and other strategies to compliment or refine the most common method which is to just do the training plan as scheduled.
And if nothing else, looking at these your own charts should motivate you go get out the door and "just run" sometimes when you really don't want to
Some of my take aways after listening to that webinar Bob posted again and doing some refresher reading.
1. Multiyear Progression is needed to be able to handle increasing training load/stress....
2. All TSS is not the same... We hear this and we say it, but what does it really mean? TSS = Metabolic Cost , Glycogen Used , Energy Expended.... What it doesn't capture is muscle damage, tendon damage, life stress etc.... Not a perfect system but better than nothing...
3. Personal Red Zone- Compare to Oneself NOT others- Fitness, Years Training, Age, Gender, Body Type and Size play a big part here determining each individual's ability to handle training load/stress...
4. CTL, ATL needs to be cycled to continuously improve... IOW a period of time off , light training , etc is required to bring these down before another major build... This is a bit of a conflict with the Multiyear Progression....
5. NOT peaking TOO early .... Something to pay attention to with BBW , BTW , Camps and doing EPIC fun stuff , if you really are trying to maximize yourself for ONE particular event.
Now, after a couple of years, I see a trend.
It doesn't always correlate with the progression from my EN plans. I can almost predict which weekend will be ugly. Not always, but often. As P pointed out, sometimes this has more to do with the cumulative effect from family/work/life stresses added to our wko stresses. Thus, making the bad weekend a little more nomadic on the calendar than I'd hope for.
But, if it's been a few weeks and all of a sudden I have a crappy weekend. I usually can go to PMC, see that CTL/ATL have been climbing, TSB is lower than I 'expected', and I take it 'ez' for a couple of days. That doesn't mean couch surf but it does mean play it by feel out there in the tri world and not train thru a brick wall just to hit ALL the intervals.
#stuffyoualreadyknow
In short, this post is coming full circle on my reflection of last year’s build and races. http://members.endurancenation.us/F...fault.aspx I’ve felt I was over tapered for the last two years of racing and this year I’ve been looking at loads a little differently. Specifically, I’m looking more at percentage of loss of CTL, rather than TSB and targeting ROUGHLY a 10% reduction with the least for swimming, a bit more for by the bike and the most for the run. Although I don’t agree with all he offers, this guidance from Joe Friel is what got me thinking along these lines. http://www.trainingbible.com/joesbl...-form.html
I’ll save the training analysis for another time… at this point it is what it is! However, for the sake of conversation a couple of key notes:
* My bike and run training load has been pretty high for a while. Consequently, no matter what I do with projecting the taper load, my TSB gets really positive really quickly and I don’t have a pretty “peak” to taper off from.
* I did back-to-back camp weekends on 05/23 and 05/29 whereby we actually made a big loop from Black Diamond to CDA to Whistler and back home to Black Diamond. This came about because #1: I really wanted to get on the CDA course prior to race day and #2 I was presented with the opportunity to coach a camp for our local team the following weekend at Whistler. I couldn’t bring myself to pass either up, although next year if I have the same opportunities I won’t over book myself. When something had to give, it was invariably work (still employed - hooray!) or the swim.
Year-over-Year PMC
The Swim: At the risk of digressing into training analysis (and subsequent therapy), the impact of the logistics and travel of back-to back camp weekends impacted my swim the most. Sometimes there just aren’t enough hours in the day. That being said, I don’t have any particular concerns about giving a little volume bump in the last two weeks and anticipate it will sharpen up for race day. Also, I use a flat 20 TSS points per 1,000 yards as I don’t have a lot of confidence in the TSS calculations.
The Bike: Here’s where I’m most intrigued. The bike load seems really heavy pretty late to achieve this desired drop. This is where I’m most considering backing off a bit, regardless of the numbers. Note I selected 06/14 as the peak even though it isn’t the true peak due to the camps week. Of course, part of the drop being more than I would have liked is the camp volume falling off by race day. It was for this reason I pushed the camp one week closer to race day this year.
The Run: Of all three, this one makes the most sense. The volume seems right, the numbers line up and although the TSB is pretty high, I wouldn’t add more to those last two weeks.
Thanks in advance for taking a look and any insights you may be able to offer. If it works out hope this helps someone else down the road!
Hey Jenn,
Thanks! I was just thinking about our conversation last week and was about to ping you. Your pictures didn't come through. Send them to me at rich@endurancenation.us and I'll get them added to the post.
Hey Coach!
Arg, good thing I work for a tech company, eh? I actually watched the screencast 2x and everything! For the life of me I couldn't get them to plop into that "PMC" folder. Oh well. Sent via e-mail!
Thanks!
Little late to this post - been gone for a while
I used to watch TSS very closely but have backed away from it in the past year or so. I still track and watch it, but more as an extra piece of information.
I find my fitness tends to swing quite a bit and therefore the inputs required a lot of tweaking. I found myself doing so much estimating at times I just got the feeling that it just wasn't that exact. Some things I just estimated too - strength training for instance, I just gave myself 1 TSS point per minute. Not necessarily accurate, but always consistent. Also, because of swings in bike strength from tri to road I would get different TSS for similar efforts. So I could do a hard road bike workout on the trainer and post monster watts or ride really hard on the tri bike outside at 40 or 50 watts less but still be wiped out. To me, mentally the same value, but not the same for TSS.
I have 10+ years of data slugged into TP & WKO+. For my past three IM TX results - peak TSS/d leading up to the race and ending time:
2013 135 max. tss/d finish time 11:11:xx
2014 128 max tss/d. Finish time 10:23:xx
2015 138 max tss/d. Finish time 10:53:xx
Other areas that really affect my training are stress and fatigue and they don't get picked up in the equation anywhere. This usually manifests itself with the lack of sleep. If I'm working on something important I'll often stay up late but still get up early in the morning to get the workout in. Three or four days in a row and I'm shelled. This kind of stuff is really hard to see on a PMC chart. I used to wear a fitness tracker to measure sleep but it was a hassle and it wasn't that accurate.
As to WKO 4.0 for the Mac I've seen a bunch of posts on it and I'm sure it's coming, but it's just way behind schedule. The longer the wait, the more irrelevant it becomes, in my opinion. TrainingPeaks is now good enough and other products like Golden Cheetah continue to erode the WKO user base. Like Al posted above, I'm a Mac convert, but have a PC in the garage with Computrainer, Trainer Road, the the Sufferfest videos which I use a lot and then WKO, which I rarely use.
@Jen -- thanks for sharing! Do you have your numbers for IMCA last year, as I know you had a great race there. Would be interesting to compare where you were for IMCA'14 vs IMCDA'14, though there may be some cloudiness in data caused by you racing 2x IM's, recovery, etc.
It makes completely intuitive sense that the swim, bike, and run should have different taper / CTL reduction trajectories(?) and I think the direction we're going is to use tools like this thread to help people explore what works best for them, and your modeling through IMCDA and your race experience in a couple weeks will be a great data point for all of us!
Update on where I'm at, observations, etc:
Since ToC I've kept my cycling volume largely static while focusing on my run. My last 4wks of running have been 36, 42, 44, and 50 miles (!!) last week. Anything north of 35mi is uncharted territory for me, I haven't seen those numbers since about 2002 or so, I believe. Last week was a bit of stretch but no pain, no injuries, a lot of confidence built and I feel a little stronger, more fluid on the run each week.
I've done about a 75% half-assed job of modeling out my training for the next 4wks, which you'll see in the chart above and TSS charts below. I have some observations about this exercise that I'll share below and then go through my next ~8-12wks in more detail. But the modeling is reflected in the scheduled running you see above for the next few weeks, which yields 40-46mi per week. What I learned last week is that in order to get into the high 40's I need to run longer on the weekend, before my ride, which really just kills my motivation for the ride, getting out the door in a timely manner, etc. IOW, a 4-5mi pre-ride run has about zero impact. But a 7+mi run definitely has downstream effects, largely as a function of poor time management and motivation that lead to a not-so-great long ride...for me. So my run-heavy weeks will coincide with vanilla weekend cycling volume, for me, which is about 3hrs each day...but more on that later.
Anyway, below is my run PMC and you can see a very nice lifting of the CTL line, from a peak of 43.6 before IMSG to a 53.8 today. I'll tighten up the modeling for next 3-6wks but I should be able continue this climb into the low to mid 60's, through continued running frequency and moderate volume, with fartlek/hilly tempo style harder running that happens organically as a function of the routes I choose to run.
Running PMC Observations:
My sense is that running CTL is a good reflection of running endurance and durability, not necessarily speed. That is, I feel I have much better endurance, a 7-8mi run is no big deal at all now. My paces for longer runs have steadily been decreasing. However, my sense is that I haven't seen a commensurate increase in my VDot. That is, I feel I'm more faster at longer stuff than I am faster at shorter stuff, which is only natural. Last Thursday I did a ludicrous 14mi climbing run with nearly 2k of gain. This Thursday I'm running 16mi flat to get a better feel of where my long run pacing is now. And I need to open up the browser and register for an early July half marathon I've had my eye on.
The Bike
As I've said, I've kept my bike TSS and volume relatively static since ToC and you can see that in the chart below. Note that my CTL has actually decreased from 90.1 at the end of ToC to 77.8 today. However, I reaped a nearly 10-15w instant FTP bump from ToC. For a guy my age with my cycling experience (tons of miles) to still experience a bump like this after a one week all-in investment is pretty revealing about the value of camps like this, I feel. Second, I lost about 3lb during the camp and other 2lb or so in the past month. The net of the FTP increase and KG decrease is a tasty w/kg increase (from about 3.8w/kg to 4.1w/kg, ballparking, without bothering to do the math), resulting in a much better experience on all of the climbing I do. This is reflected in my times on my local TT hill:
Cycling PMC Observations:
Changes / The Plan Going Forward:
FTP/Interval Ride:
. Going forward I'm going to do 4 x 12' @ my best effort, with intent of racking up 45-48' at >320-325w vs the 18:30 I'm getting now at 315-320w. I'll conclude the summer with a TT where my goal is 17:19 @ >335w, one second faster than Sawiris 
. I think my wattage PR from Back in the Day was 335w on the P3.
My usual Chantry routine is #1 @ ~.98-1.0 IF, #2 @ max effort, ~1.05-09 IF, #3 as 1' ON, 1.5' OFF. Note that I subtract 7% from my watts up this hill get my on-the-road bike, flat ground FTP. Subtract 10% from the tri bike numbers (get the same watts road vs tri bike on this hill, climbing in the hoods) to get my tri bike FTP. I've been doing ^this^ since about 2005 which is why the IF numbers may seem a bit off
Weekend Volume Pops vs Hard Centuries
I have at least 3-4x weekend volume pops scheduled organically as a function of my IMWI and IMChat camps + a couple easy to schedule monster climbing rides across the summer. I'll use these pops to lift my CTL curve, per my observations above. When I'm not doing ^this^, my weekend will be:
The Run:
On the Non-Pop cycling weeks, create a running schedule of 45-48mi, based on what I learned last week with my 50mi foray.
On the Volume Pop weeks, create a running schedule of 38-42mi.
http://home.trainingpeaks.com/blog/arti ... ing-stress RubiTrack's calculations of Effective Power, Training Intensity & Training Stress Load are virtually identical to TrainingPeaks' NP, IF and TSS, respectively.
I have not paid the money for training peaks paid features since I use Rubitrack and I was just wondering if anyone else had any experience with using it for this.
Looks interesting. Since there's a free 14 day trial, I'll play with it for a couple of weeks and see what I discover. It would be nice to unload myself of the Windows 7 netbook I keep around solely for WKO+.
IMO, adequate analytic software for the Mac-dependent triathlete has yet to be developed. Golden Cheetah, as noted, is primarily written for the cyclist; adding in running and especially swimming workouts to get a proper PMC is problematic, but I'm willing to be schooled in that if someone can show me it is equivilent to Training peaks/WKO+ PMC for all three sports combined.
My 1-2 hours so far with rubiTrack leads me to believe it is not yet ready for prime time. For just one example, there does not seem to be a standard definition for FTP in the program. There are zones to be adjusted for pace and power, but there is no indication how those zones are used to calculated PMC values. There's also no way I can see to set initial values; there's no way to customize "seasons" for analytic purposes, and so on. Bottom line, my CTL in rubiTrack is currently 142, no matter how I adjust the zones. In TP/WKO+, my CTL is 122. That's too much of a difference to be useful for me.
Reading through the RT forum, it looks like the Normalized Power equivalent (Effective Power, ePower) was just introduced six weeks ago. Also, the imports of files from Strava and Garmin connect results in a lot of oddities, such as only the first Lap being displayed. And it is unclear if all the data is being used for PMC calculations in that case (I suspect it is).
I am new to the concept of training load and just having a couple of year's worth of data to look at.
I have been using Rubitrack for over a year to keep my workouts on just because I am skeptical about keeping my data in "the cloud" with no local backup.
I will look more closely at the training load metrics and see what I can find out.
I found out that if you have the Preferences-Advanced-Import/Update Training Thresholds checked Rubitracks 4 will generate new athlete log entries whenever you import an activity, and it can mess up your data depending on what you import. You might delete the data that you imported and reimport with that option unselected and see if it makes a difference.
Also, this is a data point of one but I racked up TSS of 780 over the weekend and was scheduled to test again on Tuesday. I passed on Tuesday and tried to do the test today but my clinical judgement is that there is some significant recovery needed yet before I will be able to put up a reasonable test.
After a big bike weekend like that I find that it makes me tired to swim and run also, how do most folks recover and resume regular activities after an epic bike stretch like Blue Ridge Camp, Tour of California, or a long 3 day bike weekend?
Monday of Wk16, after the big weekend scheduled in wk15, is a day off. I think we also have a note in the Tues workout to maybe turn that one down also. ToC is another beast, requiring more recovery. I know it did for me.
For IMWI '13 my numbers looked like this on the day before the race...CTL 72.2 ATL 27.2 TSB 41.7. And with this fitness I put up a 10:10 IM good for 7th AG and missed Kona by 90 seconds (the one roll down).
My FTP is up about 20 points since then, VDOT is up 2 points, and I'm overall stronger. My PMC numbers, while lower than the previously mentioned benchmarks, are much higher at CTL 107.9 ATL 161.1 and TSB -42.4 all with four solid weeks of training remaining. This was the perspective that really helped me understand where I am relative to the 'old me' and will be looking to drive that gap even higher in the coming weeks.
I have read the posts thus far, which are very helpful. My question here is about my current fitness. If I am reading this correctly, my current fitness (CTL) is approximately the same now as it was prior to IMCDA. That seems odd to me since I have been sitting in bike focus for a month, and even though I have hit every work-out, still substantially less than the IM build.
I ask because I am curious about adding more races in 2016, but up to this point been under the impression that one could not stay at peak fitness for prolonged periods of time. This chart seems to suggest one can (if I am reading it correctly).
Secondly, if correct, does this not make an argument for a less painful IM build?
For what it is worth, I feel great. My legs are tired at the end of the day, but upon waking I am refreshed. I am running faster for longer than I ever have. That is contrasted to the IM build, when I needed several days off just to recover from exhaustion from the program. I would love to do a race right now to see how if this feeling translates into results, but that is not in the cards unfortunately.
Doug, let's analyze this chart a bit, then see what conclusions can be drawn.
I don't know if this chart included swimming, but I assume it does include both running and biking. If it does not have swims in it, , and you were swimming 3.5 hours a week, your CTL before CDA might have been about 10-15 higher.
My conclusions:
The good news: you have a good opportunity, *if you train consistently for the next 2-3 years* of moving your IM-ready fitness to a higher level simply from training more. Think of the whole process as a continual spiral upwards, each cycle building on the last. You are literally "training to train". Don't take this as meaning you should go out right now and try hitting right now an ATL in the range of 140-170 (what top-end IM athletes are routinely doing during an IM build). rather, each build, try and get your TSB up another notch, say to the 90-100 range next time, then 110-120 the time after that, etc.
Doug,
As an exercise in learning the value of consistency (I know I have) and the potential long term cost of inconsistency:
I've done these exercises in my lead up to IMWI and it's really driven home the value of (1) running frequency over applied consistently for weeks and weeks and (2) the downstream value of picking a couple weekends in my build where I go big on the bike.
Finally, understand that the concept of the PMC built around "the more you do, the more you can do." I need to dust off the netbook where I think I have my WKO files from 2011, my last period of IM training, so I can compare. But I can tell you that the combination of (1) very consistent, high (for me) run volume, (2) my ToC exploits followed by consistent training on the bike and (3) this consistency applied week after week has built me up to some very high CTL numbers. More importantly, I'm just able to absorb much more work now than I was a few months ago, because I've done a lot, over months and months, increasing my ability to do a lot of work. For me, the charts, darts, and graphs, just help me visualize what's going on, where I'm headed, and help motivate me.
In the end, where I'm going with my own training, as I experiment and will have conversations with Patrick when we do our annual rewrite with the plans is:
I think I may have just talked myself into trying to put a 60mi run week next week...
Here is my PMC 1 month out from IM Wisconsin. I am now basically where I was when I crashed. I plan to do a big bike week next week and I still have a 20 mile long run. Hopefully I will get another 20 or so points to my CTL. Best I could do!
I also really like planning out my future workouts to see how my numbers will evolve. You can see a big jump in May when I did TOC and right now have CTL of 130 and will peak around 142 as I begin tapering for IMWI which I feel pretty good about.
Appreciate the feedback. Very instructive. As much data as this chart provides, clearly there are more data that generate the full picture. Comparisons between FOPs and BOPs aside, the daily 70/ATL100-120, and - 25 TSB was exhausting for this one dude. The taper fixed nearly all of that. How i feel now is roughly the same as I felt post-taper.
My question remains, however: provided that my current daily TSS is about the same as pre-IM, and my ATL is within spitting distance of the pre-IM, could one suggest I am nearly equally ready/as fit to do an IM now as I was pre-CDA?
Thanks,
DS
Here is my schedule TSR running up to 11/8/2015 Austin HIM (advanced plan). Did my best to estimate TSS for work-outs, but admittedly much of it was guess work.
Curious, looks very aggressive to me (relative to the IM build earlier this year.
My thoughts on this as a generic question, not about you specifically at this time. "Not all TSS points are created equal", when it comes to race readiness. It's quite easy to imagine someone training exclusively for short course, with a PMC which looks like yours. But without the weeks/months of long rides/runs/swims @ IM race pace or race pace plus, all that Training Stress will not make for a pretty picture on IM race day.
I used to think about my "routine" potential IM performance, meaning what I could do with the standard maintenance workout schedule, no bikes longer than 2.5 hours, runs longer than 80 minutes, or swims longer than 45 minutes. I could certainly *finish* an Ironman with that training, but my times would be 15-20% slower than if I had trained for 10-12 weeks focused on an IM. My experience is that I lose most of my IM-specific fitness within 5-6 weeks of starting my taper even if I keep training at a moderate level. So when I am doing multiple IMs in a year, such as this one when I've got 11, then 5 weeks between races, I'll take about 3-4 days of no work, a weekend to start the juices flowing again, and back at full training within 10-12 days. I've never found a way to get to all of those IMs @ peak fitness. I've got to pick one, and do what I can for the others. This year, I'm working on making the middle one be that peak.
So, to answer your question, unless you have continued doing IM focused long swims/bike/runs, no you are not as ready as you were June 28th. The PMC is not that sensitive, as different types of workouts can produce the same TSS levels, but have you ready for different types of events. I'll repeat my new favorite aphorism: "Ironman is easier to do, and harder to get right, than most people imagine."
At Rich’s (Kona bound!) request here are my final numbers and thoughts for 2016.
A few observations:
- Not all TSS points are created equal. We know this, but with two extreme days it was particularly noteworthy in the bike numbers. At IMCDA I struggled to turn in 246 TSS points and got off feeling like I’d overcooked it, no pun intended. Conversely, where I was borderline hypothermic in the first 30 at IMC miles I had 322 TSS points, built power throughout the day and got off feeling GREAT.
- In the spreadsheet many of the “peaks” were from the build to IMCDA, not in the rebuild to IMC so the days out were 45 or so.
- I’m pretty much over the TSB figure. It turned to a positive figure by the Wednesday AFTER each race simply based on the math with CTL I’ve been carrying. We all know that nobody feels any kinda fresh on the Wednesday after the race! I’ll be sticking with the percentage of CTL reduction math.
- I felt a lot better at IMC but there are a couple of variables at play. One could attribute it to being more tapered, but with a 70 degree temperature difference and much better execution at IMC it isn’t exactly a double-blind study. I’d bet on temperature and execution rather than an over extended taper based on how flat I felt in prior years.
Takeaways: I’m going to shoot for the same targets I shot for at IMCDA this year. I’ll say “no” to a few non-tri things so I can hit those numbers more precisely. Oh and I’ll be sending an offering to the weather Gods.
Cheers!