Pinch Me

[Deleted User]

Usual caveats - 10day forecast can change, can't change it anyway so not worth thinking about on race day, blah blah blah....

But D A M N and Y E S  P L E A S E!

Lindsay Blumenshein

We're all thinking it, you just said it. fingers crossed!

Coach Rich

Paging Ed Shimon to the weather information hotline...

MattAaronson

Ah yes, I guess within 10 days we're allowed to start obsessing about the weather. I have been monitoring the really long range forecasts from various 14-day sources and also seen the expectation that the current heat will move through and temps are expected to be mid or even low 70's. One forecast actually now has 69 and overcast on race day. Unlike most people, those aren't my ideal conditions as I tend to handle the heat better than most and was actually hoping for high 80's or even hotter. If I was shooting for a PR I'd want a nice and cool day but I'm guaranteed a PR in this race already!!!!

Btw, wind forecasts currently range from SW to SE in the 9mph range. If there has to be a breeze, I strongly prefer it from the West on that course.

rlh2000

After surviving IM Coeur d'Alene Surface of the Sun, I fear no weather.

Simon Shurey

Not focusing on the weather. Not focusing on the weather. I have had some interesting weather challenges on my last two ironman. Lake Tahoe 2013 that nice chilly morning. IMLP 2014 getting pulled out of the swim due to the thunder and lightning right over the swim.

This is great to hear.

Looking forward to getting through this weekend and starting packing

Looking forward to seeing some new faces and old faces




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

ejshimon

Howdy folks!  I saw the WeatherBat symbol in the sky, I think Rich hit the button.

I can keep you all informed about weather forecasts if you wish to get updates. I am a senior meteorologist for the National Weather Service, so I am a professional liar. 

The 10 day outlooks are showing cooler conditions arriving mid-week next week, and dry and pleasant Wed to Saturday, like the graphic below shows.  HOWEVER, one long range model is showing a storm system producing storms in western Wisconsin at 1 am Sunday, with them progressing across the race routes during the day. South-southwest winds would be prevailing in that scenario, some gusts to 20mph. With that said, the long range models tend to be too fast with systems that far out, and the tendency as D-day approaches is for systems to slow down in the model output. That is because until the system reaches the west coast, where we have weather balloons to sample the amount of energy and rotation, the models have a lot of trouble with timing and intensity. Sooooooo, as you might imagine, once we sample that system reaching western Canada/US around Wed/Thurs, forecast accuracy goes up significantly for Sunday.

I am putting in a good word with Mother Nature to keep the Wed-Sat conditions through Sunday! She owes me one after taking me out to the wood-shed several times last winter. 

Plan for the worst, and hope for the best.

John Withrow

Don't y'all worry about a thing. I bring good weather to every race I do. So just sit back, relax and enjoy your high 60's/low-70's overcast, no humidity and no wind day... You're welcome!

Paul Hough

I would be so happy just to have your weather THIS Sunday. A 69 degree low and only 90 high...yes please!! We typically don't start seeing morning lows in the 60s until the latter half of October.

Dawn Cass

Ed - we are all counting on you to guarantee a good weather day (no pressure!)

Dawn

ejshimon

Hahaha, sure Dawn, no pressure. Just 3000 racers and thousands of spectators ready to tar and feather me if the weather sucks. Easy peazy, lemon squeezie.

ejshimon

Latest and greatest, the storm system of note is slowing down and staying north of Madison for race day. High pressure looks to hang around long enough for no precip during the day. knock on wood. Also, cooler air has been a persistent theme that has not changed at all. Morning low around 50, afternoon high around 70. Winds appear south to southwest, 5 to 10 mph in the morn, increasing to 10-15 mph with a few higher gusts in the afternoon. I hope I do not jinx it by typing this! Keep your fingers crossed!

[Deleted User]

Posted By Ed Shimon on 06 Sep 2015 12:21 PM

Latest and greatest, the storm system of note is slowing down and staying north of Madison for race day. High pressure looks to hang around long enough for no precip during the day. knock on wood. Also, cooler air has been a persistent theme that has not changed at all. Morning low around 50, afternoon high around 70. Winds appear south to southwest, 5 to 10 mph in the morn, increasing to 10-15 mph with a few higher gusts in the afternoon. I hope I do not jinx it by typing this! Keep your fingers crossed!

#doublepinch!

Dawn Cass

Keep it up Ed!!

Peter Noyes

According to Wunderground, the first couple hours of the bike might be as low as 60. I might consider arm warmers if that is true.

[Deleted User]

Yea - I added arm warmers and my buff to the suitcase yesterday. Who'd a thunk it!?

rlh2000

I'm also thinking of going with socks on the bike- hate cold feet!

Coach Rich

I'm allllll about cooler/cold temps on the bike. My diesel engine really digs operating in cool vs hot weather, and my run even more so.

I rode yesterday in 101f and just finished my last local run in 95f. In fact, I'm just going to shut up with all of this weather talk...

Robert Sabo

David What's a buff?

[Deleted User]

"Multifunctional head ware"
Good for a base layer under helmet, or around neck in the cooler months.
Handy if the mornings chilly then toss in morning clothes bag. Could ride with it too if absolutely needed.
http://buffusa.com

Coach Rich

Looks like Peter, Jon, and I are getting out of LA just in time. About to jump into the truck to drive to the Rose Bowl for my final pool swim and it's (looks at the thermometer behind him) 103f. Yikes!