Should You Break the [EN] Rules when Racing Ironman Hawaii?
Kona Bike Execution Thoughts
Theory - After an easier than planned last hour of the bike in Kona 2015 followed by a PB run there, I wanted to see if an “easy last hour” was a critical success factor. For years I have considered biking “harder” to Hawi to beat the heat and winds (never have tried), but in 2014 I simply biked easier at the end due to fatigue, and still had a better run.
Researching other data from competitors online (TrainingPeaks), it is clear that -- at least in recent years -- the elite athletes do in fact go on cruise control in the last hour compared to the rest of their rides. Is this the secret to a solid overal Kona performance vs the standard EN execution there?
Background (Bear With Me)
As I plan for Kona 2015, I was looking back at my performances in the past. Last year’s run, a 3:25, was a personal best for me there by about 10 minutes...the run has seen me really suffer in the heat, especially once climbing Palani (mile 10) to the QueenK. For the record, it's the friggin hot and the bigger you are, the harder you suffer.
So, what was different last year?
I “slightly” crashed my bike at about mile 17 by riding right into another competitor who wasn’t pedaling. Road rash, etc. I got up and raced slightly harder, not bad...but then at Mile 35 there was a sick, unexpected 20mph wind. For like 10 miles. I tried to stay in my box, etc, but it was really hard.
So while I am usually very strong over the last hour in Kona, this year I was pretty much done by the time I got there. Figured I had burned out on adrenaline after over-biking post crash...so I set it on cruise control...and by the time I got to the run, I was like “No Pressure!” I simply ran to heart rate, not really racing or tracking folks. Then around Mile 18 (turnaround in Energy Lab) I started to pick things up and, for the first time ever, felt strong over the last 10k.
Thru Mile 79.8 — HR 134, AP 228, 21.4 MPH
Mile 80 to End — HR 133, AP 214, 21.6 MPH
Research
Of course I want to have a solid race on the Big Island, so I started with my performance last year, and decided to compare it with other files I could find online. After reviewing what I found, I think that elite athletes do shut down the final part of the bike to drop their Heart Rate for the Run -- specifically at Kuwaihiae / Mile 79.
#1 -- Ben Hoffman 2nd Place OA, Breakthrough Race (online here)
25mph all day, 272 NP (.81) with a 313 17' effort to Hawi and big 55x11 usage downhill...but then the last hour of the ride was 22mph at .74...clearly they shut it down that last hour to prepare for the run...hmmm.....
#2 -- Kyle Buckingham 2013 AG Champ, Course Record Holder (online here)
.82 for first 79 miles (to Kawaihae), then .73 for last 32 (scenic overlook, airport, town). Note Kyle’s file, like Meredith’s drops all day. Clearly working hard to overcome a swim deficit perhaps? To put away the non-swimmers?
#3 -- Luke Mackenzie, year of his 3rd place finish I think? (online here)
.83 for first 79 miles (to Kawaihae), then .79 for last 32 (scenic overlook, airport, town). (drop of 17 Watts). Not as much as the others, but still significant. Note that his early miles were fairly steady, which leads me to believe he made the lead group and didn’t have to work _that_ hard until Hawi, so he could do more at the end.
#4 -- Meredith Kessler (online here)
.83 for the first 79 miles, then .74 rolling back into town. Again, hard at the start to make a group...then steady all day.
Race Details / Background -- Or Why ^THAT^ Usually Happens
The Elite Racing Factor
I have to acknowledge that there is quite the “sorting out” that takes place on the men and women’s PRO race en route to Hawi. Even though they start so early in the day that they never really encounter winds on the bike like the AG folks do (!), there is a great deal of work done to sort our the pecking order by the time they are heading down from Hawi...case in point, you’ll rarely see the race order change or something dynamic happen to the group that is leading the way back. Someone could run them down, but I can’t remember the year that someone “came from behind” at mile 90 to take over the bike lead or break into the top 10, etc.
Why Go Faster Earlier?
Every year there is a discussion about getting out to Hawi as quickly as possible. First, the temperature is a non-factor that early in the AM when you are riding harder. Second, there’s a tailwind of some flavor, which added to the early “pack riding” makes for free speed. Finally, the common logic is that the sooner you get to Hawi the sooner you are headed back Home and that lessens your exposure to the headwind (formerly your tailwind) that increases across the day as the island heats up.
Why Go Easier After Mile 79?
Again, my top assumption here is that backing off at mile 79 makes sense in terms of what it does for your run performance. But there are other reasons. First, in general the road starts to tip downwards (save for Scenic Overlook) -- so these miles trend faster even with the less effort. It’s important to note that for these early folks (back by 1pm latest), the worst of the headwinds are behind you (usually)...not so for later riders. Also, as I mentioned ^above^ there is almost no passing or lead changes at the end of the bike, so I think there is some level of security.
So What Does The Mean For Coach P’s Kona?
Well, clearly my sample size is biased as I researched available data, not my peers. That said, the data does show that fast athletes bike harder earlier and easier later...no disputing that. So here is my tentative plan as opposed to what I have done in year’s past that focuses on the earlier part of the race.
Overall Normal - I swim my steady swim, pace the bike by starting smart and building my effort all day...then I try to hold it together on the run.
Overall 2015 - I plan for a "harder" earlier portion of the race, in both the swim and the bike, before turning it into more of an exercise in being steady and seeing what is possible on the run where my bandwidth is seriously limited.
The Swim Normal - I notoriously only have one swim speed, and that hasn't changed much over the years. I typically line up where I want but about 8 folks back...then I just try to swim steady and not slow down at the end when I get tired.
The Swim 2015 - I have been swimming quite a bit and my swim fitness / "durability" is higher...so I plan to seed myself like I am racing vs just drifting off the back of the line and being shy. I am ready for a hard first 15' and we'll see where it goes from there. Basically hoping my swim fitness will translate into a better group selection and a reduced loss of swim speed at the end of the swim where the currents get wonky, etc.
The Bike Normal - Typically I get settled over the first 10 (hilly!) admin miles in town before getting on the Queen K and riding steady. By mile 50 towards Hawi things really spread out and it's a much quieter ride. Then I continue to build my effort through the end of the bike. I usually pass tons of folks in the last 30 miles of the bike as I stay on the gas into T2.
The Bike 2015 - I am planning to extend my high heart rate window from T1 through Mile 10 of the bike...so stay on the effort early to get through the admin areas and not lose any ground. Then I will settle into my 4 hour power / ABP ride effort (.78 / 265 W) -- about 265 watts on the flats, 275 on long hills, capped at 300 for steep hills. During this outbound time I will aggressively work the group to stay with the fastest folks and keep the speed up. I will maintain the effort up Hawi, recover slightly on the downhill, and be ready for the "final" hard 15 miles through the top of Kuwaihae at Mile 80. Then I will switch to normal IM effort (.7 / 238 W) and essentially just hold the line over the final 32 miles. I will be cheese, find free speed and focus on keeping my HR down and fueling up for the run.
The Run - Since I ran this way last year, it's not really worthy of splitting it apart. Basically I kept my HR in my happy place as long as I could. This is about 140 for me, and I sat there all day until I started to really suffer after Mile 18 and then pulled it together. I think this approach of ignoring pace and the competition is the way to go, plus a few more cooling tricks, should help me put up an even steadier run.
So...what do you think??!! 
Comments
EN biking is the Fram Oil FIlter Strategy. Folks of a Certain Age may remember a TV commercial for Fram oil filters, featuring a garage mechanic, who offered you the choice, "You can pay me now; or you can pay me later." Meaning, buy a Fram oil filter now ($) or ruin your engine, and buy a new one later ($$$$). Take it easy at first, then avoid blowing up at the end of the bike or on the run.
Can you reverse it? Sure you can. The question is, does putting the easy part at the end of the bike vs the beginning bugger the run? One key part of the strategy you left out is the absolute requirement to stay topped up on fluids and fuel through the first 2-3 hours of the bike. I think the reason people blow up on the bike or the run if they work a little too hard at the start is not because they ruin their muscles irreparably, but because they start to get dehydrated way sooner, and use up their glycogen stores before the last two hours of the run. Speaking from personal experience, the two times I failed to complete a marathon (Kona '09, Tahoe '13), I biked at 0.78/9 from about mile 15-35 of the bike course AND failed to get in enough fluids and fuel during the entirety of the bike.
The other key is to keep your TSS under 280-88, with an hour by hour VI of 1.03 or so. The TSS is all about the "pay me now or pay me later" issue. At your effort level, you can't hide from the overall toll the bike puts on your system when considering the run, and TSS is the governor of that, for whatever reason. The VI reflects an old IM adage: "You'll lose 3 minutes on the run for every minute you go anaerobic on the bike". The theory of limited matches. But you understand that very well. Still, you should include all those elements in your final plan- constant hydration and fueling, steady effort within defined periods on the bike course, and a restriction on the overall energy (KJ) you expend on the bike.
The wheels keep on spinning...
Here is another reason to consider it... Not all TSS is created equal... You PM does Not know how hot/humid it is.... Makes sense to ride hard during the earlier/cooler hrs and back off a bit for that last 1.5hrs / 30 miles or so... That stretch of the KQ is when we start to feel the heat on the bike NO ?
I employed this technique @ IMTX with some good results, purposely riding the first 4hrs a bit hot and then purposely backing of a little bit for the last hr....
That's the rational self. The passionate self wants you to go for it. If it's been an approach you've contemplated for five or six years, this is probably the best time you can game it. You'll have a lot of time on the ground in order to ride certain segments of the course and create (and then test) a TSS model, and hopefully, be able to do one full rr execution using your rule-breaking strategy on the Sunday, 13 days out from the big day. Even though you'll have no acclimatization at that time, I think this would be the opportunity to hone it a little bit. As I say in the previous paragraph, the gains might be as much as 5 - 10 mins! Totally worth it, in my opinion!
(edit: can you play around with models on best bike split to help get to the cost/benefit or risk/reward bottom line?)
Last piece that's the tiebreaker for me: have you done specific work to assure you that you'll be able to push at a .78-.79 IF for that duration? In aero? With bricked runs?
Outstanding analysis, by the way. I'm looking forward to seeing this play out!
Tim, you ran well in TX after deploying that strategy, didn't you? I'm starting to lost count, but that was a breakthrough race for you, wasn't it?
I think that if you're racing by HR and RPE as the primary, and using power as (1) a metric giving you objective data at these subjective measures and (2) as a stupidometer to keep you from being stupid, they you'll naturally decrease your power towards the end of the ride as heat and HR increases.
I did this on my last RR, where I was at about 218w Pnorm at the coast, at the bottom of the bike path, and watched it spool down to ~213-214w Pnorm as the heat increase dramatically as I rode inland and I stayed honest to an HR cap I had given myself. It was tough to watch those watts go away, as it's easy to think of them as goals in and of themselves, rather than just another number.
Also, you may want to do some modeling on how this wattage strategy may play out, as Pnorm across the entire ride, then us BestBikeSplit to model what those watts result in as a final bike split. I do this by entering an actual Pnorm for the ride vs assigning an IF and having it calc a Pnorm. IOW, 220-225w Pnorm means much more to me right now, as watts I know I can hold and run well off the bike with vs whatever IF that number is.
Anyway, do ^this^ exercise for a range of get-off-the-bike-at-this-Pnorm strategies and see how this shakes out as various bike splits. I've been doing this for IMWI to get a sense of how spending/saving watts results in different splits:
Athlete profile: 150lb, 295w FTP, I think I just used all of the standard settings for CDA, rolling resistance, etc.
I think my point is that at pointy end speeds, you can see within a range of 10w...and we all know just how ginormously huge 10w is...you can see that the bike split needle is only moved by 6', according to BBS anyway. Yes, lots of caveats in there around the aerodynamic differences between athletes, how spending watts on this terrain vs that terrain pays off differently, etc, but I think that modeling in BBS is another tool to consider so you can see how various wattage decision may express themselves in different bike splits.
Very interesting thread. I'm with Dave T...my head says one thing but my heart wants Coach P to give it a shot. He's got the experience and talent to race like pro so why not.
I'm not as analytical as some of you guys, so not sure I can add much to that. But my common sense tells me that the fall off in watts after mile 80 is a combination of the heat and wind coming up, the more downhill trend of the course, and the pros gathering themselves metally and physically for the run that they know will be where the race is really won or lost.
My one-time experince at Kona showed a drop off in watts and HR from about mile 75. I was holding about 170 watts and HR of 127 thru 75. Then they dropped to 160 Watts and 123 bpm. And they both dropped again at mile 95 to 140 Watts and 115 bpm to the end of the ride. And I can tell you that last drop after mile 95 was not by choice...it was simply all I could muster in the heat and wind. And I recall getting passed by many people in the last 20 miles of the ride, and it wasn't an uplifting experience. So for this year my goal is to to try to be more consistent...to avoid the 2nd drop in the last 20 miles. I understand the first drop and I thnk it is a function of the factors I mention above, but I want to avoid that 2nd drop. I'm not going to try to go out faster on the first 75 miles. I'm sticking with EN Rules, and hope to avoid a melt down again.
Reviewing my KONA races also fail to correlate not being similar enough.... 2013 I rode KONA very steady with my highest watts 100-105 miles (ran well) but I was executing on the side of caution to save for IMFL .... 2014 KONA I completely came apart unable to hold power as it just went lower and lower thru the day and followed it up with a poor run (IMCHOO 13 days prior).....
Back to P's KONA.... It just makes good sense .... It doesnt have to be a huge difference... Just ride 2-5% hotter on that first 80 miles and then 2-5% less on the last 30... I will be employing something along these lines ( I will promise myself that if I can stay AERO those last 30 miles I can produce 5% less watts)....
If you want to break the [EN] rules, also think outside the bike. If you took a lower risk, slightly more agressive (but not quite as balls-to-the-wall as you are describing) approach on the bike, is there something that you might make happen on the run? For example, how much faster a per mile pace were your last 10k (or whatever, from the turnaround at the Energy Lab) than your first 30k paces? Something I'm thining about for 2016 is starting "EN Mile 18" at Mile 16 or 17 ... in other words, I'm willing to take a minor gamble to achieve a minute fater in the run by starting my race kick a bit earlier. Heck ... you've turned yourself inside out on hard long runs with strong finishes, plus a bunch of stand alone marathons, in your day ... what would happen if you ran your last 12 miles hard?
Tim has also hit on something important ... whatever you do in the early bike miles, you absolutely positively need to be able to keep aero in the 79 miles + stretch. If you've able to do that while reverting to the easier watts, that's gold. If you've unable to comfortably push easy power in aero and your position or power falter, that's not so good.
First, it's just hard to ride hard after swimming. Not sure what it is for me, but I feel out of breath but I am actually okay HR-wise...I plan on more sessions to acclimate to this transition.
Second, my last ride of my big week was 115 miles at .797 for 325 TSS. It was with the local tri stud, and you know you are in trouble when you are at threshold, in aero, 12 inches off someone's wheel.
Third, I have done three sessions with a swim and then a hard bike, and I am 85% confident I can ride 3.5 hours at 260-ish NP, and that I can dial it down afterwards.
But that said, I am not sure what it will get me. My run last year was still the same style of run...lost effort after Palani / Mile 10, then again at Mile 19 out of the Energy Lab, but I lost less than in previous years and rebounded quicker.
So no real answers here, more of a "this is less hypothetical right now" than my initial post...quite frankly I am excited about the concept of racing Kona vs doing, although I have to recognize the potential "race damage" I might incur...
Any more thoughts from you guys!?
I needed that rest big time. The CTL is still up there but I feel better...of course spending 2 days moving 8 yards of loam around my house as part of a mega-reseeding effort is taking it's toll.
That said last week saw my run form come around (higher cadence!) and I am now riding in full race set up sans kit and tires/tubes. Today's 50 miler saw me average 23+ for most of the day after my warm up. That said, temps are still cool here..anxious to be on the ground where it's warmer!!
Hope your race plans are coming together!
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That's more activity than the average American does in a year!