Help me figure out my IMLP bike split
No, not getting all Type 1 about a race that's still 11 weeks away, but I'm loooking at the EN Power Racing Calculator to figure out goal watts for the big day, and I'm not really sure where to start. LP will be my first IM race, so I have absolutely no idea what my time will be. I can come up with a rationale as to why I think it will be anywhere from 5:45 to 6:30, which is a difference between racing at 71% vs. 67%. Love to hear any thoughts on where to start.
Stats:
FTP = 240
Weight = 155 (race day goal 147)
W/kg = 3.41 (race day goal 3.6)
aggressive aero position on a Felt B2.
Thanks for your thoughts!
Mike
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Comments
My SWAG for you would be to shoot for .7 on your first RS and see how it goes. If .7 is too high you will know it on the run.
Thanks!
Mike
Since your #s are the same as mine - FTP and (projected) weight, I'll offer a stab based on my times on the CDA course. Narrow your range to 5:56 to 6:12.
One caution about using the FREE rally pre-rides. There is never a time when you can truly replicate how you will ride on race day. The times when you are fit enough to replicate it (during IM prep phase), you are not tapered, and the times you are rested (before or early in the OS), you are not fit enough. So a one loop trial after a rest day may be the closest you can get, and even then, it be on the slow side.
Mike,
You can plan for 6 hours but I bet that you ride sub 5:45 if not faster on race day. There is a lot of time to be saved from traffic control and legal drafting on that course that you can't replicate on non race days.
It's OK, even if you are! This is the place for it.
Hey Mike - for what it's worth - last year, I went to the EN camp at Lake Placid and I did 2 RR rides of 112 miles on the LP course - both came out to somewhere right around 6hrs @ ~ .7 IF on very untapered legs. I was working an FTP of ~ 267'ish and weighed ~ 155 lbs (but was fully loaded with water bottles to get me around a 56 mile loop with no bottle handoffs)
On race day with tapered legs, full aero setup, and no stopping at intersections, I rode 5:44 and change on about .68 IF and then I ran pretty close to my full VDOT potential off the bike. Only mishap was a couple of short bouts with cramps during miles 18-22 that caused me to walk a few minutes during those couple of miles before I regrouped to run in the rest of the way. I think I paced the bike pretty well, but just buggered my run pacing btwn mile 6-18 and probably undershot the sodium intake needed for a pretty humid day by LP standards.
If you are doing the LP rally, definitely try to ride the full 112 on the course at .70 and see what time that nets you - then you can probably subtract 15 minutes from that (which I think is conservative) to arrive at your predicted race day split.
Mike
NO! You should not plan to ride at .73 [or whatever] due to the downhill and assume that it will even out. This would be a really bad idea. Besides that part is not all down hill and you can pedal for a good bit of it. If you get off the bike with less TSS than planned [hardly ever happens anyhow] you can always run really fast at the end.
Thanks Chris, I had forgotten about the sections you can actually pedal. All I remember was holding on for dear life going 52mph.
Mike, sorry to hijack your thread a bit but I have been thinking about this post for a couple of days and had a question. What is the significance of tapered versus untapered legs when it comes to IF on the bike? Are watts not watts regardless of how your legs feel? I totally get how tapered legs will be better for raceday. Also understand what road closures and an aero setup get you in the way of time savings. But my question is if you had an FTP of 300 so you planned on riding 210w, does it matter if your legs are tapered or not? Or am I missing a bigger point here? Like fresher legs allow me to push the same watts but in different gears with different cadences versus tired legs, and that allows me to go faster? Maybe I just think that on a flat surface with all conditions the same, if I push 210w I should go the same speed regardless of how my legs feel. Am I wrong?
@ Tucker - Yes, a watt is a watt, and the correlation among gradient, wind, watts produced and speed should always hold. So what's different about race day? Two things I think: first, the risk of feeling strong, with the preceived exertion feeling lower on race day for the same watts produced in training - leading to working "too hard" if one doesn't keep an eagle eye on the PM. Second (assuming adequate attention to hydration and nutrition) the rested legs will be able to hold the same watts longer with more left over for the run than the chronically tired legs of training.
P
Patrick,
Mine was just a theoretical question. I was just wondering how watts on one day could be different then watts on another day regardless of how the legs felt. Wasn't being critical of or questioning any methodology about what IF to ride at, it just doesn't make sense to me. I wouldn't doubt Rich. Raceday should not make me go any faster, all things being equal, if watts are the same. I assume you rode the RR and the race at the same IF with the same FTP? How you picked up 55 minutes is the mystery that I am trying to figure out. Ok you had a disc, probably weren't carrying as much food/drink, maybe were lighter? Did you forget to do the out and back one loop?
Tucker
@ Patrick, Tucker - this IS an interesting issue, because I don't think anyone ever goes as fast in a race rehearsal as on race day, even with the same NP/IF. Possible factors, in addition to the ones noted above, might include aero helmet, disc wheel, better and more consistent aero position on race day, less weight, tighter clothing, no stopping and starting in the race, and the effect of the "Ironman draft", the effect of 100s of people moving air in front of you, 7 meters (or less) apart.
Tucker - also keep in mind that the race day execution protocol takes into account that you have tapered prior to race day. As is always very clear from race reports - IM racing is not a math problem. The equations, figuring, data points are designed to let you put yourself in a place where if things go right you have the opportunity to race to your potential. There is nothing easy about it and FTP plus Vdot does not guarantee you XX:XX:XX time. Not matter what there is a huge suckitupitude factor that comes into play out there when it starts to really suck. The key is to put off that really sucking part as long as possible and make sure it is within tolerable limits when you arrive there.
No one is going to care about your FTP or Vdot out there on the road when it gets HARD. I have talked to people who have claimed that they went too easy on the bike...but none of them every had a good explanation as to why that did not translate to a better than expected run. Remember, some people consider 26.2 a decent challenge on its own without the splash and spin thing before it.
On a lighter note I really need to make some T -Shirts that incorporate SUCKITUPITUDE somehow...love that "word"
@Chris - I know there is no magic formula to tell how long it will take to complete the race. That was never my question. I was only talking about the bike. I simply was asking, because I do not know and it didn't make sense to me, why riding the same course under the same conditions and with the same intensity, why would it matter if my legs were tapered or not. Of course having tapered legs one would feel better on raceday. Would have lower PE, run would be easier, overall body should feel better, I get that. It seems these are the reasons I am getting why you go faster on raceday:
Traffic control
Different bike setup
Tighter clothes
Draft effect of hundreds on course
Carrying less food
Changes in weather
So it seems to me that these factors contribute much more to a lower bike split on raceday than tapered legs. The law of physics do not change on raceday. If you push 200w all day you should come up with time "X". If the next day, if conditions the same, you push 200w all day, you should come up with the same time "X", albeit with much more tired legs.
Or is it that having fresher legs allows one to push harder at certain times whereas one wouldn't be able to do that on tired legs in a RR? I think I may have beaten this to death.
I don't. I think you've brought up an excellent question which seldom gets asked. Most people accept "I'll go faster on race day because my legs will be fresher." Clearly, if all else were equal, pushing 200 watts is pushing 200 watts, whether the legs are tired or fresh, and therefore "fresher legs" cannot be the explanation for the phenomenon.
I think you've captured all of the 'possibles' here in the thread (big thanks to Al's analytical mind). If I had to rank order them, I'd say
Traffic control is fairly obvious, and if you're saving 20-30 seconds per encounter (light, side street, etc), that adds up pretty quickly
Draft effect is probably the least appreciated one out there. There was a great TriTalk podcast (David Warden's bastion of analytical geek-dom) maybe 2-3 years ago on his performance versus a rival in local sprint races. Short version of the story was that he was a faster swimmer, about equal on the bike and run, but would lose to his rival consistently in races where they were in the last swim wave. Turns out, his rival was (legally) using the slingshot/draft effect to pick up big time gains on such races, enough to get a small advantage. In IM racing, we probably slingshot past people less, but the effect of passing and being passed does contribute to overall higher average speed.
The rest probably speaks for itself.
As to how P could have a 1 hour difference, that may be a little extreme, but I've had 2-3 minute differences on a 10.5 mile local TT based solely on weather, so combining the above with some different weather, I could definitely see it.
Mike
I loved listening to that guys podcasts. Wish he were still doing them! I agree, Al is the man. Everything that he says is usually spot on and quite intelligent.
Have fun when you go to LP. Go to the brewpub after the bike, not the night before like I did. Didn't feel good that next day.
I have to admit, I am hoping for a little "draft effect", legal of course, in my 70.3 this Sunday!
Tucker
I hopped off the grid for a few days after my original comment about tapered legs helping me go faster on race day. Perhaps this was a bit of a misnomer on my part. I think the factors others have highlighted - traffic control , aero gadgets, tighter clothes, more time in aero postion, and the legal draft effect are the biggest contributors to going faster.
However, I will throw out one more thing to consider - 210 watts in race rehearsal, all other conidtions being equal, does not automatically equal same speed as 210 watts on race day. "How" you rode those 210 watts can make a big difference in your speed. There has been some good discussion on previous posts on the forum about how a Low V.I. power profile will most of yield the fastest speed for a given output. Patrick posted a power profile of one of his buddies from CdA last year that had immaculately low V.I. - looked like the guy might has well have been racing IMFL - he smoked the bike for the wattage he rode, and then ran well off the bike, too.
The reason I bring up V.I. is that I find it easier to ride low V.I. on tapered legs than on tired/trained legs. For some reason when my legs are heavily trained, it is harder to be disciplined about working the downhills. So in my RR, say I ride an NP of 210 watts, but I ease up a bit more on the downhills because my legs are tired, so I end up with a V.I. of something like 1.1 Then on race day, my legs are fresh, and I stay very focused on working the downhills (and my legs stay strong to support that objective), then I ride NP of 210 watts with a V.I. of 1.01, I almost certainly go faster at that same wattage. The faster speed is not because of my tapered legs - it is because of low V.I. - but I am better able to execute low V.I. on tapered legs.
Anyone else have similar experiences?
I definitely know that when I am on the verge of overtraining my VI goes out as my power output is not as smooth and I have more spikes and drops.
Eitherway, your point about a low VI is a good one and I'm interested to hear others thoughts.