Average Times for 70.3

Chris Oubre

I pulled together finish data for several recent Ironman 70.3 distance races.  I built a data set of over 3100 racers.  I then averaged the split times for several time ranges looking for what split it takes, on average, to achieve a particular finish time.  I know there are several uncontrolled variables; however, I think the results still contain enough information to draw some conclusions.  Here are the results.  The way I read it, if I'd like to finish a 70.3 in under 5 hours, I should shoot for a run split of 1:42.

Finish By	Count	Ave Swim	Ave Bike	Ave Run
4:00	51	0:22	2:03	1:23
4:10	126	0:24	2:09	1:23
4:20	204	0:26	2:15	1:25
4:30	321	0:27	2:19	1:29
4:40	495	0:28	2:23	1:34
4:50	734	0:29	2:27	1:39
5:00	956	0:30	2:31	1:42
5:10	530	0:33	2:36	1:48
5:20	434	0:36	2:38	1:53
5:30	246	0:36	2:46	1:55
5:40	116	0:40	2:47	2:01

 IM Race Results.xlsx 

 

What do you think?

Al Truscott

Better to look at what YOU think YOU are capable in each of the three legs, then determine (a) what it would take in training to be ready to go at that pace and (b) be honest about your limiters, and where you might need to weight your training time.

But I guess this is a reasonable step to take to see if your are dreaming, or setting stretch goals for yourself. :32/:03/:2:42/:03/1:45 = 5:00 makes sense to me for someone who is a well-rounded triathlete, +/- 2-3 minutes in the run and bike.

As to *these* numbers, looking at the “5:00” line, I see a missing 17 minutes. Really? transitions taking 8-9 minutes EACH? 

Coach Patrick

Like Al said...it's your numbers that matter.

I'd pick a favorable course, and train for it. If I wanted a 2:45 bike and a 1:42 run, I'd train for a 2:40 and 1:38, respectively. Always nice to have some wiggle room.

That said, most speed on race day is about improved execution...a better run is often a result of smart biking and good fueling...and those are independent of training "suffering."

Chris Oubre

I'm not sure where the "missing time" is either. That's one of the reasons I posted the spreadsheet.

I agree about running the race that you are capable of. I'm looking to start setting monthly/yearly goals. I haven't picked a specific race, just looking for a general target. If I'm a 5:40 guy, on average what are the 5:30 guys running? That is very different than, "What does it take to run 5:30 on course X?"

I also have drank the EN kool-aid regarding execution. But the fact is if my Thursday long run is not close to the average run split for my target time, I'm stacking the deck against me.

MattAaronson

Totally depends on the individual but the averages I do think are interesting. I have a bunch of finishes around 4:30 and a 27' swim is nowhere near my split -- I did them all with a swim 35-38' but biking faster and running about what the table says as "average". But that said, I doubt most people are more than 5-7' off of the averages so they are decent numbers to have in the back of your mind. For example, targeting a 5-hour finish with a 2-hour run puts you WAY outside of normal. But then again, I guess that is pretty obvious!!

Mike Roberts

@Chris, FWIW, when I shoot for a time goal - usually 5 hours in a HIM - I make my race selection, training, and race strategies in reverse, based on my strengths/weaknesses.  I've been running a long time, know my good HM time is low 1:30s, so HIM run = 1:38-40 on a typical run course.  That means I've got 3:20 to get out of T2.  Building that 3:20 becomes the puzzle.  If the bike course is brutal and will take me 2:45, I've gotta spend a lot of time in the pool, then red-line a :30 and ace transitions.  Likewise, if you're a slow :45 swimmer, you better pick a fast bike course, beef up the FTP and hammer out a 2:30. 

Chris Oubre

I've thought about this some more and I think the extremes are skewing the averages.  Instead, let's look at it like this

For a finish time of 4:55 - 5:00 you see that the most common combination is Bike: 2:35 - 2:40,  Run: 1:40 - 1:45

Here are the numbers for 4:40 - 4:45.   The most common combination is Bike: 2:30 - 2:35,  Run: 1:35 - 1:40

 

And for fun here is the whole population, regardless of finish time.  This shows what bike/run split combinations were the most popular.

I updated the spreadsheet.  You can use the filter to select a specific finish time bracket.  IM Race Results.xlsx

MattAaronson

Love the data. Note that the really fast runs with slow bikes may be people who flatted on the bike. Any way you can run 4:25-4:30? And (if I may ask), 4:28-4:33?

Chris Oubre

Here's the 4:25 - 4:30  and 4:30 - 4:35 groups.

  

MattAaronson

Thanks man. So I am about 15-20 mins faster than average on my bike split, and MOP on the run relative to finishers with my time. I'm slightly surprised my run isn't a bit better. But it squares well with my gut feel. What it also implies is that my swim is a huge boat anchor!!!