Setting my goals for next year
WARNING!!! Minutia to follow. Lots of user specific data! Consider topping off your cup of coffee... you have been warned
I want to set very specific goals for the up coming months. Like many of us here, I have a desire to one qualify for Kona. I am NOT trying to fit this into any time frame. I know where I am and I have an idea of where I'd need to be. I can measure that distance. I have a demonstrated ability to absorb work. I'd like some feedback on how to set a reasonable, challenging and achievable timetable.
Basic stats for me
- Age: 37
- Weight: 171
- FTP: 249
- VDot: 46
- TPace: 1:57/100y
- PRs:
- HIM: 5:28:01 - Buffalo Springs 2015
- HIM Swim: 41:37 - Buffalo Springs 2015
- HIM Bike: 2:40:11 -Texas 70.3 2015
- HIM Run: 1:48:23 - Austin 70.3 2015
- IM: 13:56:37 - Coeur d'Alene 2014
- IM Swim: 1:41:14 - Coeur d'Alene 2014
- IM Bike: 6:04:57 - Texas 2013
- IM Run: 4:48:56 - Coeur d'Alene 2014
My plan. Knowing that I'll need an IM time between 9:50 - 10:10 to qualify in my AG, I plan to focus on the HIM distance until I can get my HIM time around 4:45 - 4:50. I've tried improving all three sports at once. Now I plan to go with a run focus and big bike volume pops. the swim..... well it sucks. My plan is to not focus on the swim until I can get my bike and run near the target areas.
My Targets: Open half marathon time in the low 1:30's. Bike FTP to 285.
I pulled the numbers for all of my runs >= 10 miles. My best run paces have evolved over the last three years as follows
- 2013: 8:50 / mile
- 2014: 8:38 / mile
- 2015: 7:48 / mile <- This year I did an outseason and focused solely on HIM distance.</li>
For my current run durability block I've been using a goal pace of 7:30 target, though I have been laying down some low 7's in these short duration runs.
What goal run pace should I target for 2016? I'm going through 2 blocks of run durability, then an outseason then a HIM build to a mid year race.
As always thanks for even reading this.
Comments
maybe u shouldn't completly disregard the swim.
had a talk with my PT who is trying out triathlon, he is a decent rider and a good runner but a terrible swimmer. He told me that he is penalized twice on the swim as:
1- he gets out of the water with only 2 or 3 bikes left in transition area thus a lot of work to do on the bike (passing, etc..)
2- he spends a ton of energy in the water so by the time he is out, he is exhausted and his bike and run suffer from that
he's working on his swim, not necessarly to get faster but spend less energy to have a decent bike and run.
It's hard to analyze your stats as we are missing some good info (ie: your IM bike pr in regard of the run you had afterward, or your IM run PR vs the bike u had before)
for example, I consystantly ride 2h43s on hilly courses/run 1h40s and it translates to a 5h45/4h10 on similar IM courses.. so watching your 2h40 HIM bike PR, it's kinda weird your IM bike PR is 6h..(all conditions and courses being similars of course)
good luck with your goals
Hey Chris,
I too am in the goal-setting process, so this hit close to home. You've made great progress and probably have lots of potential to still achieve. Because you don't appear to have a super strength in any one discipline (i.e., you're not a 4:45 biker or :52 swimmer), your long-term goal is probably along the lines of a 1-5-4 Ironman, with some wiggle room to account for transitions and relative strengths/weaknesses (for example, my 10-hr IM dream looks more like 1-5:10-3:45 to account for my relative strengths/weaknesses). Can you get there this year? Probably not. But a couple 2-3 years isn't out of the question at all.
The biking is probably the easiest to chew off conceptually. To ride 5 hours +/- 10 minutes, I would simply aim for 4.0-4.2 w/kg (on a flatter course, big FTPs north of 300 trump w/kg). So, if you can hit 285 this year, 305-10 next year, you're probably there. Of course, if your 171lbs could/should be 160, then 290 FTP may do the trick.
You can run a 4-hr IM marathon with a 49-50 vDOT and a well-trained endurance engine. Maybe even 3:50. But you can't just create a 3:50 IM marathon by cranking up the volume and/or intensity over 12 weeks. It may take a couple of years of consistent, frequent, injury-free running to get there. Just make sure that your short-term run goals fit within your longer-term goal of running sub-4 in an IM. When you dismount after 112, the fact that you ran a 6:15 mile or a 19:30 5k in the spring doesn't mean squat if you didn't also build the endurance engine and running economy to sustain 9:00 pace at the top of Zone 2 HR over next 26.2. So, instead of focusing on maximizing my 5k, Z4 or LR pace in the Outseason (doing so can lead to over-reaching, which leads to injury/burn-out, which are the enemy of consistency), I instead just focus on and trust in the process, which I know from past experience will produce meaningful, faster results. Thus, my run goal between now and April is to find my accurate TRP, run at least 6 days per week, never less than 20mpw, slowly/smartly building to 36-38mpw according to the plan. I know for a fact that, if I actually pull it off, it will lay the endurance foundation for me to do some cool stuff in both my summer HIMs and fall IM.
Your swim will also probably take at least a couple of years to get down to sub-1:10, so ignoring the problem now is a long-term mistake. If I recall correctly from the swim video you posted, your stroke rate is pretty low, you press straight down on the water, causing head to go up and hips/legs down, and you compensate by kicking like hell. If I got that right, it's a recipe for a slow, high-HR swim. If you diligently focus on just those issues by doing absolutely nothing this year but stretching, cord work and drills, you'll improve far more than if you were to hammer out 10-15k per week without changing your form. And don't forget, the IM swim is relatively high-HR time with no hydration or nutrition. You have an opportunity to reduce that damaging time by 25-35%, which will have obvious, positive downstream effects on the B&R.
Finally, make sure to make this fun. I don't really like training for training's sake, but I love competing, love racing. So, I try to race as much as I can, never going more than 4-6 weeks without attaching a timing chip. But that's just me.
Looking forward to following your progress.
I've become a big fan of more single sport focus specially in the off season and the basic structure of your plan makes sense to me going from run durabilty to OS to HIM build... There are no short cuts and it appears your on board with that.
The Swim- looks like there is still some technique based gains to be had here - this is good as its not about how much or how hard you can work its about small corrections- video, triathlon swim coach, and a balance of swim within your run focus/OS blocks.... be sure to add some volume within the HIM build...
The Bike- Couple years ago I was dying to do a run focus (this was my weakest) to help me get to KONA... Coach P said we need to get you off the bike with- in the top 10 first... I held off on the run focus and worked the bike for another year.... He was spot on with that recommendation ... My point is no matter how good we are on the bike we can always be better , its the longest percentage of any triathlon and therefore will always have the biggest weighting... Make sure to again balance the work on the bike within the run durability but make sure you do the work in the OS...
The Run and Body Comp- I put these two together...Huge gains year to year already... Not sure about Body comp ,which has already been mentioned, but this is a huge portion of the run ... I have watched a 49 yr old AG friend of mine who is a life long runner just miss the BQ time over and over again... This year he lost 8 extra lbs and absolutely crushed the BQ not to mention earn himself a lifetime marathon PR by over 15 minutes....
My one question- 2 blocks of run durability? maybe too much? need time to absorb and adapt? Talk to Coach P on that one.
Your Question- What goal run pace should I target for 2016? - I'm assuming you have listened to the run durability webinar? I would say the new TRP or SLOWER.... again talk to Coach P...In general I would probably say just run and don't pay too much attention to pace... TRP for me is not an easy pace but for lots of shorter runs I think I would try for that pace, Yes I could run TRP or faster but for how long? ... I went over my run focus plan from last year and my average pace was EP + 30-60 seconds and that would have been TRP + 60-90 seconds...Keep in mind I was doing longer runs on trails (very very easy trails) but the point is the same ... When doing a lot of running NOT to worry too much about pace..
1) I need to get a W/kg of 4.0 so set me FTP goal of 285 this year and 305-310 for next year
2) I need to slow down and listen to the run durability webinar. Due to lack of bike fatigue, I've been laying down some 7 - 7:30 paced runs. Just checked and I SHOULD be running 8:27's. Time to slow down and avoid injury. This is going to be a long build for the run.
3) I need to gain endurance at 2-3 vDot points higher than where I am. I need to slowly but surely build this with run volume of 36+ mpw. So I should target an open 13.1 times as follows...
Current) 1:42
End of RDB 1 (12/13) 1:41:30
End of RDB 2 (1/3) 1:41
End of OS (4/10) 1:39
HIM Raleigh (6/5) 1:37
??Crazy??
4) I cannot just forget my swim.
5) I should set some fun goals to keep me focused. How about..
a) run at least 2 50+ mile weeks in 2016
b) Run at least 20 days in a row one time in 2016
c) Podium in a local sprint. (I was 3rd this year)
d) Bike at least one week with 250+ miles
My point of contention.
1) I don't think I can work the swim to hard while I'm working the other sports hard. I think I need to focus. the swim takes the most out of the family, is my least favorite and contributes most to burn out due to lack of success. This season I want to try and pick apart each one. I need to get tactical with my swim. Cords/stretching/videos. I'm not sure how many swims per week I need though. Could I get by with one 30-45' swim a week with cords 5 days a week ~ 10-20' at a time? Then up the swims to 2X per week in the OS...
Questions/Follow-ups:
1) Coach R assigned me two run durability blocks back to back, just before my OS. There's not many weeks in that. And it's in the holidays. Don't know if I can fit a big bike week in there. Or if I should
2) Post HIM Raleigh I'm wide open. I have a sprint that I love to do. I might do IM Augusta for fun. I'm thinking to put a few more big bike weeks in there... Not sure yetThat said I believe the cords + 1 swim will help sharpen my technique and help me build strength.
Chris,
Love your energy and enthusiasm. As for the swim, you know what you need to do. You gotta fix some form/mechanics. The OS is not the time to be worried about swim fitness, making sure you're getting 8-10k per week, etc. If you can get those feet and hips up, turn the windmill into a high-elbow catch and increase your turnover via 45 minutes of drills and 30 minutes of cord work, bravo. If you exit the OS with improved form, but lower fitness, congrats on a huge net plus. On the other hand, you spending 4 hours per week schlepping to the dreaded pool to exhaust yourself by reinforcing bad form, huge waste of time you could have spent with the family or on the bike.
I view OS like this: I may swim once a week, only for fun, only if I want to, all focus on form. Run is on auto-pilot until at least February. RD just began for me and goes throughout the Jan OS into April. I'm gonna run 2-5 miles just about every day for the next 8-10 weeks. I already have alerts on my Garmin to keep me between 128-138 HR (mid-Z2), and as long as the watch isn't buzzing, I just run. Running becomes something brainless and carefree I do every day. I never worry about or over-analyze the run until at least Valentine's Day, at which point I'll start adding more tempo and eventually Z4 work (I'm old and just finished a 2xIM season, so I ease into the faster stuff). That leaves most of my time and 95% of my focus in the OS on the bike. Where it belongs. If I want 270 (4+w/kg), I know my 2x20's gotta get into the 250's, then 260's, 270s, and then I gotta hold 284 for a straight 20'. Makes me wanna throw up a bit just typing that. Likewise, the VO2 sets gotta get into the 300s, then 310s, etc. That's where I focus, over-think and obsess.
If you smartly and patiently follow the RD process through the holidays and the first part of the OS, perhaps finding a HM in late February or March, you will be very pleasantly surprised at how fast you run. I set a 20-yr PR last year in the HM right out of RD, on zero speed training. Just be patient and let it come. Whatever time you run that hypothetical early-spring HM in, plan on that time + 5-7 minutes for Raleigh. That course is always hilly, almost always hot and humid. I'll be there too. And if you go about this OS correctly, I'll be fortunate to even keep you in sight. After Raleigh? Well, Louisville is still open.
MR