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KS 70.3 bike time guess

gilliattgilliatt
in Racing Forum 🏎

 Last year did KS 70.3, I was not inside the haus yet.  I did have a brand new PT and understood a little bit about power didn't understand how to ride with a low VI yet.  I split a 2:40 on a 220 pNorm 200 avg power VI of 1.1.   I think  I've made some refinements.  Curious how much faster you guys think, I'll be able to get around the bike course.  I should be around 240 pNorm on Raceday VI I'm pretty confident will be much lower 1.06-07 ish

FTP up from 250 ish last year to 285-290 

Compact crank

New position from TTBikefit.com

I weigh the same, bike is the same, 

I haven't had a lot of outdoor riding 

 

Comments

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    mattsullmattsull

    My unscientific guess would be low 2:20's. You'll crush it!

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    manconamancona
    I went 2:22 last year on 225 watts so my power was less but my w/kg was probably higher. I believe I was at a 260 FTP for ~4.2 w/kg for this race last year (I'm pretty sure I am one of the lightest guys in EN which is why it is was so high). My guess is you will also be in the 2:20s.

    More importantly a better executed ride than last year should also get you a better run as well. The time will work itself out and everyone else will have to deal with the same conditions.
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    William JenksWilliam Jenks
    I did 2:45 on 180 W ave (ok, so I'm a woos) VI 1.05. You went about 3% faster than me on about 10% more power, which is exactly right for the normal square relationship for power and speed, all things being equal...probably totally by coincidence. :-)

    But anyway...

    You are talking about a 10% power increase, which should translate to a 5% speed increase, all other things held equal. (Remember velocity only goes about with the square of power at high velocity and the square root of 1.1 is just under 1.05). Your original time is 160 min, meaning you get ~8 min for power alone, or 2;32. If your fit makes you more aero and the VI makes your effective power a bit better (and conditions are exactly the same), you could easily get a few more percent, i.e., =2:30.

    That's exactly what the other guys told you off the top of their head. :-)

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    gilliattgilliatt
    Wow, impressive exactly what I woud expect from an ISU man. Thanks guys the TSS chart lines up pretty well then. Last year ran a 1:32 looking for 1:28 ish +/- 90 seconds. Last year it got pretty hot esp. the last lap. I think I was the last AG to go out which made quite a difference heat wise.
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    Michael JohnsonMichael Johnson

    Im doing IMKS 70.3 also... Im alittle uncertain.....I did have a FTP of 260w, but, 2 wks ago did a 280w....not sure if this is accurate...haven't repeated this test. 80% on 280w is 224w and 80% of 260w is 210w or so.....I guess i'll just sure what shakes out!

    My goal is in the <2:45 split range....we'll just see</p>

    I hope u have a EN singlet on....I will!

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