An elusive sub 10 kona, reverse engineering a Finish Time, and The Process
Disclaimer: I have done a bunch of IMs and can get away with considering dumb stuff like this. If you’re reading and prepping for your first long distance race, ignore my line of thinking, and don’t let this stuff rattle around in your mind. Follow the plan and The Process, it will work.
I’m taking a fourth attempt to get under 10h in Kona this October. I have (something like) a 10:40, a 10:20 and a 10:08 on the course, and by race day, I’ll have accumulated about 60 days of on-course training over the years.
I’m thinking about race execution and what it takes to get that number, on that course, in whatever conditions it deals up on the day. Now that I have a pretty good body of data, I know what I have done in various conditions. I also have three experiences where I have followed “The Process” which I describe as putting trust in my training and preparation, racing humbly and to my abilities, and following a straight-up EN execution model. It’s definitely served me well, but I’m needing to think about every possible approach to hit a hard goal. (Let’s assume that I’m doing the fast-guy gear stuff and covering the marginal gains and mental game elsewhere).
Data and current markers suggest that if I follow The Process, I could mush together something on a "varied conditions Kona day" in ranges of S 1:04 – 1:07 / B 5:15 – 5:18 / R 3:32 - 35. Fast T1/t2s are probably 7 min total. So, an over/under of 8 minutes /2 minutes. I want to trust in The Process to lead to the under-10 goal, but looking at how that spread lies more on the over than the under side of the ledger, I’m keeping an open mind to other approaches.
The alternative is to completely commit, and chase that time with some precision. So, instead of my Process approach, I would take a calculated and benchmarked run at the day … something like setting a hard target (maybe the lower end of each of those ranges above) of being out of the swim at NN, being at Hawi at XX, exiting T2 at YY, hitting Palani hill at ZZ, and so on. And building on that, I would be developing micro strategies in my race plan through the day: Am I a minute behind coming out of the swim? Ok … adjust the bike plan to be slightly more aggressive to make that up over the next 5 hours. Am I hitting mile 13.1 exactly on time? No? Ok … revert to Microplan that has me running 8:00 miles from here to Mi 18, then 7:40s from there. And so forth.
Back to the ^Disclaimer^ above: this is no way to race, until it is. The downsides are myriad: squeezing things REALLY tight, and moving from a place of racing in the box to having a number breathing down my neck at almost any given time makes a tough day. So, the stress response and its effect on the actual physical execution, clear decision making, and all that stuff comes into play as genuine dangers.
I guess the upside is it pushes the envelope as far as it will go, and causes me extend beyond my established limitations. It’s not just a move along the risk-reward curve … it’s a rightward shift of the curve altogether. For those who have watched past Konas, it’s the Marino Vonhoenacker heartbreak … the guy has come into the day with eyes wide open, racing for a win, but knowing that he is going to be right on the ragged edge all day to get that (unfortunately, he’s toppled over that edge somewhere around mi 15 of the run). Still, there are others who have gone on to be on that edge to success (and it's worked well for him elsewhere).
Thoughts?
(Also, apologies if I have posted this in the past ... I feel like I asked exactly this question a few years ago, but didn't find anything in a search)
I’m taking a fourth attempt to get under 10h in Kona this October. I have (something like) a 10:40, a 10:20 and a 10:08 on the course, and by race day, I’ll have accumulated about 60 days of lifetime on-course training.
I’m thinking about race execution and what it takes to get that number, on that course. Now that I have a pretty good body of data, I know what I have done in various conditions. I also have three experiences where I have followed “The Process” which I describe as putting trust in my training, racing humbly and to my abilities, and following a straight-up EN execution model. It’s definitely served me well, but I’m needing to think about every possible approach on this to hit the goal. (Let’s assume that I’m doing the fast-guy gear stuff and covering the marginal gains and mental game elsewhere).
Data and current markers suggest that if I follow The Process, I could mush together something on a varied conditions Kona day in ranges of S 1:04 – 1:07 / B 5:15 – 5:18 / R 3:32 - 35. Fast T1/t2s are probably 7 min total. So, an over/under of 8/2. I want to trust in The Process to lead to the under-10 goal, but looking at how that spread lies more on the over than the under side of the ledger, I’m thinking of other approaches.
The alternative is to completely commit, and chase that time with some precision. So, instead of my normal Process approach, I would take a calculated and benchmarked run at the day … something like setting a hard target (maybe the lower end of each of those ranges above) of being out of the swim at WW, being at Hawi at XX, exiting T2 at YY, hitting Palani hill at ZZ, and so on. And building on that, I would be developing micro strategies in my race plan through the day: Am I a minute behind coming out of the swim? Ok … adjust the bike plan to be slightly more aggressive to make that up over the next 5 hours. Am I hitting mile 13.1 exactly on time? No? Ok … revert to Microplan that has me running 8:00 miles from here to Mi 18, then 7:40s from there. And so forth.
Back to the ^Disclaimer^ above: this is no way to race, until it is. The downsides are myriad: squeezing things REALLY tight, and moving from a place of racing in the box to having a number breathing down my neck at almost any given time makes a tough day. So, the stress response and its effect on the actual physical execution, clear decision making, and all that stuff comes into play.
I guess the upside is it pushes the envelope as far as it will go, and causes me push beyond my limitations. It’s not just a move along the risk-reward curve … it’s a shift of the curve altogether. For those who have watched past Kona’s, it’s the Marino Vonhoenacker heartbreak … the guy has come into the day with eyes wide open racing for a win, but knowing that he is going to be right on the edge to get that (unfortunately, he’s toppled over that edge somewhere around mi 15 of the run). Still, there are others who have gone on to be on that edge to success.
What say you?
Comments
Dave - We've all got different motivating mechanisms wired into our psyches, so take this as simply a description of what has worked for *me* in order to get my best times.
I've done my best when I have been racing other people - specific people. In my case, they were guys in my AG that I was trying to catch. Now, you are not going for a specific place goal, but a time goal. So how to translate the motivation of using catching other people to grab your dream? Use other people to help you stretch the size of your envelope to its absolute max.
On the swim, it's easy. You can draft off of someone you know is going a little faster than you, to force you to swim to your limit just to stay on their hip or feet.
On the bike, you can use a mixture of eying someone ahead and using them as a rabbit, or slotting in behind someone who passes you, pressing you to your limit even if for only a mile at a time.
On the run, similar tactic: aim for someone up ahead, and/or stay in contact with someone who slowly passes you, again up to your limit.
Just think of Mark vs. Dave, '89, or Macca vs Raelert, '10, and many other examples from pro racers, who clearly used their competition to help them achieve a very tough long sought goal.
But it doesn't have to be the same person all the way thru the race - it can be a series of them, whoever you can use to motivate you at any point in the day, As you note, this is contra to EN wisdom: "Don't try to win the race up some random nameless hill at mile 40 of the bike." My suggestion is you do indeed make the day a series of successive races with other people, as and when you can take advantage of them.
I think this strategy works best when you use RPE, rather than HR or watts or pace, as your upper limiter. Having raced IM, and specifically in Kona, many times, I'm sure you know by now the feel of "Can I had this effort level from here until the end of the race?"
3X what Al said. I would add that you need to determine if another Kona finish around 10 hours is more important than pushing things to the edge and beyond even if it means risking blowing up at mile X and finishing at 10++ or possibly a DNF. That decision might happen during race week or the day before race day depending on how the weather conditions are shaping up. If it looks optimum for racing you might decide to go for it whereas if it looks like it's going to be really hot and sub-par conditions that might decide that even if you run the perfect race it wouldn't happen because of conditions. Regardless, I think you have the experience to know what you can do on that day and how to manage it.
Dave - how do your Kona times compare to other races which similar fitness levels? I'm curious as I approach Kona this year where I will follow the traditional EN execution.
I don't have anything to add in regards to Kona given this will be my first trip, but agree with the key elements of Al's note. You have enough experience to know/feel how close you are to that edge. Certainly you will be increasing the risk profile of the race, but you are entering that eyes wide open. Your goal isn't to have the best race possible with limited risk of blowing up...it's to have your best race with an acknowledged risk that you may go too hard and have a bad race. But again, your long history in the sport and in Kona gives you the perspective to know how big that risk is.
Hey Dave,
On your 5th trip to the island I think you've earned the right to roll the dice a bit. Quick notes:
I have raced with you on the IM KONA course twice , and I can honestly say that , not only am I not your equal, I'm not even in the same zip code as you.
The preparation , mentally, physically, and planning wise, you bring to race day is extremely impressive and hard to comprehend. I don't think you ever finished in KONA and said I could saved a minute here or there. You have researched and analyzed , every second is accountable, and I know you are prepared and leaving nothing out there every time you go.... Is there some secret one more wko , one more day of rest in taper, one more lb of body comp , one more day of acclimatization that will give you that breakout? I highly doubt it. Can you just will it to happen kind of like your suggesting? well YES and if anyone can, its you... BUT , chasing a number on a clock? NO , Specially trying to make up for lost time in one discipline or T , that just spells danger.... All I can think of is going a little more aggressively right at the beginning of your day... If it is to be, you will feel it and can add to it... Commit to a 5 min harder start in the swim to try to get that one faster group, study some more bike profiles of the pro's ( I know you have) ride the first half more aggressively like they do , settle into your known run paces earlier , chase those people ahead of you but stay within yourself until then end... Put yourself on the edge of your envelope ASAP and commit to being uncomfortable... No matter what its still a balance of all those things running around in your head... If it is to be, it will be , on that day it will all come together and feel easier than it normally does , parts of your day will disappear ... You will be uncomfortable yes but there will be no pain and you will smile.....
Re: using a time, somebody needs to trash records. Bolt does not give a crap about his competition - he is chasing a world record time. You are not, but I see nothing wrong with setting time goals to go sub-10. (as a former nearly scratch golfer, I suggest you plan your targets to go 9:30 - improves your chances of going sub 10).
I also know it is possible to chase a time (even an unrealistic one). I did it. My handle shows a 2016 goal of mine was to sustain a 7min/mile. I cannot recall why I wrote that, I think it was after too many beers and reading in awe too many of Coach P and Behler's sub 7 minute strava runs. I signed up for a half marathon at the end of OS. I was averaging about 7:30's, maybe 7:20's at distance during the OS before my knee blew up 4-5 weeks or so before the race. Run jail for about 2.5 weeks. I decided to try it anyway. Gun went off, I decided to stay with the leader pack as long as I could just to know what if felt like. I managed just under 5 miles at their ~6:20 pace. My pace degraded, (their's did not) but I kept going at a pace I kept telling myself "this is not sustainable" just to see if I could meet my dumb goal. Last few miles were around 7:15-7:20, but I averaged 7:00! My take away from this - there is some value is going out hard and holding on as long as possible, knowing you will eventually slow down. I am aware a IM is waaaay different than a 13 mile run, but everything is scalable, IMO. I would personally not have the courage to try on an IM at this point in my career, but I have tried it on the 70.3 distance (on the swim), and I suspect it would work on the bike. Just not sure about that run.
The pros have paces I am sure, but to Al's point, I am most confident they throw them out the window when they know the are close to a W - the run to beat people. I am reminded of Cardinale's IM texas run and how he used his teammate.
I've taken a few (unsuccessful) runs at sub-10, and here was my thought process: Most importantly, I have to exit T2 between 6:10 and 6:30. The first step is that simple. If 6:10, I've gotta go 3:50, doable, but I have to stay under 9/mi pace, etc. I do pace calcs for 3:45, 3:40, etc. Anything beyond 3:30, I'm realistically hosed, so I scrap Plan A and go to B so that I can stay motivated (i.e., passing 100 runners, neg splitting, trying to really race the last 4-5).
The next step is, based on course and my strengths, how do I get to that 6:10-6:30? The swim can be unpredictable, so you will likely have to re-calculate on the fly. I planned on 60 or better at FL, but the ocean was quite hot and mean and spit me out at 1:11 or 1:12 (I've tried to forget the details). That meant I had to go sub-5:10 on the bike, which meant 23mph or so. A prolonged flat killed that idea, so Plan B was implemented earlier than expected (moving time was 5:14, so I would have exited T2 at 6:30 sans flat, right at the extreme limit). So I suspect that for you too, the min run time is fixed (prob no way you can go faster than 3:20-5 in Kona?) and the swim will be what it will be, making the bike the most variable discipline. I suspect your window of opportunity is pretty small, so the macro plan should be relatively easy - something like:
Swim 1:05-10
TA's: 5
Required bike to exit T2 no later than 6:35: 5:20-25.
There are probably a dozen ways to achieve that hypothetical 5:20, many of them depending on the race-day conditions. If you're .5 mph average behind with 20 to go, are you willing to bury yourself for an hour to at least give you a shot at 10? If 10 is really the goal and walking the last 8 really won't bother you if it comes to it, then I say bury.
Of course, if you succeed in the first part and exit T2 at or before 6:35, you'll then have to plan the required 3:xx run to go sub-10. And then execute it. Not many people can do that last two steps better than you.
Mike
Hey Dave - First let me start by saying i have no business giving advice to a grizzled ironman vet such as yourself, but since you asked for input i'll add my 2 cents to the really good advice you received so far.
From my perspective the later in the day you get the less ability you have to "make something happen", meaning by the time you get to the run it's really a matter of keeping the wheels from falling off as long as you can. Judging by your past performances, assume by sheer physical and mental strength you will run 3:34/3:35 matching your best Kona times. Also assume about 6 minutes total transition time. That gives you about 6:20 for the swim and the bike. As Mike stated i think looking at the combined swim/bike time is a good place to start and then i also agree you have the most wiggle room to make something happen on the bike. Yes, much of that will be weather dependent, but you were able to put together a solid ride in 2014 which by all account was very windy year. Also, the bike in Kona is a different animal than in other races meaning the earlier you can start the bike the better weather you will likely encounter and you will most likely be grouped with stronger riders so you can take advantage of the legal draft. So, if you could somehow get your swim down to the 1:04-1:05 range you will put yourself in a position to hammer the bike and then hold on for the run...Kind of a Starky/Chris Lieto plan, but hopefully with better results.
All of this is easier said than done. Taking 3 minutes off an already strong swim is no easy task, neither is having to gut out a 3:30 marathon on shelled legs, but however you slice it you are going to be in a world of hurt for a long time. As others have mentioned it will come down to the question of whether or not you're willing to risk a blow up to go sub10 and only you can answer that question.
"On your 5th trip to the island I think you've earned the right to roll the dice a bit."
You've lived the dream, you've raced Kona 4x, this IS a game, if the game for you means taking a run a real hard run at 10, then do it! Not doing it and wondering, what if? will bother you more the next day than will reflecting on walking in the last 5 miles if you blow up trying. Mentally the blow up will suck, but afterwards, you'll pat yourself on the back for trying, and probably learn something in the process to make it happen right on the next try.
Can't wait to see it either way! Thanks for always leading and sharing!
And obviously, the answer to my question is "buy a Ventum and save 5 minutes. Problem solved." Kidding.
Seriously, there's lots of good insights here, and I think it bridges me to my next question, which is "if I take this approach, how do I train for it." As I'm learning from trying to replicate Rich's 2015 weekly tt's, there's a pretty big difference between riding a course to set ourself up for a great run, and riding a course to get through it as fast as you can. As I'm weighing the risk/reward equation, I think the extent that I move from Least Watts Riding to Getting to T2 fast will start to tip. So, lots of work to make sure I can actually do that by inserting some tough surges in long rides and then staying on the gas, riding hills and course features, fast, etc. etc. Ditto for run: If I'm taking the traditional approach, I will add a few nuances like starting Mile Six pace a bit earlier, or starting Mile 18 Pace / Effort at mile 16 or 17. And drafting my ass off on the run return from the Energy Lab (seriously, I think there's about a 10-20% effort gap with the headwind running back to town). The swim advice is gold, and I'd like to do a practice run of that approach at the 2.4 OWS the week before to see how it shakes out.
Finally, there are lots of tactics to think about, and plot out on risk/reward. I've been meaning to reread Patrick's thread from Kona 2015 about executing the bike the non-EN way (and leveraging the tailwind to arrive at Hawi earlier and with a larger group), and want to layer that on my own work on nailing the Waikoloa -> airport stretch. I managed it last time, but it took a lot of prep and practicing riding in a headwind sucks almost as bad as racing in a headwind.
@ Jeremy: offhand, I think the KQs and Kona results were:
10:15 IMWI -> 10:48 IMWC (13 months between races)
9:43 IMAZ -> 10:20 IMWC (11 months between races)
10:11 IMCA -> 10:08 IMWC (same season)
10:10 IMMUSK -> GOAL (13 months between races)
Bigger point, also: I see Tim has used 'commit' at least a few times in his response, and I guess putting it out in this thread / post is kinda the first part of that commitment. Definitely easier to commit from a office with AC blasting than as I'm shuffling along Ali'i, but it's out there. Stay tuned for progress reports, other Q's etc.
Thanks again, guys. Really great thoughts, as always.
So I say F swimming harder or better. You already swim well and it does nothing for you other than make you feel like you are racing. Find a small tweak and stick it but your swim mojo is good.
And the run isn't about running harder anywhere other than the last stretch from top of Energy Lab back in. Until then it's HR management and hydration. Done right you are in a position to really put the hurt on yourself there. I don't recall all your Kona reports, but I believe maybe you've only been in that place once. IOW, as Mike R noted, when you get off the bike, your finish is fairly predetermined unless you F it up.
So...it's the bike. You are still rolling the dice as you don't know what the winds will be like out there (massive headwind at mile 35 in 2014 anyone!?) but the pay off / cost ratio is much more in your favor. So I would want you to be ready to ride pretty hard out to Hawi while still fueling well. This requires a few things:
1. Super aero set up. It all matters out there esp if wind isn't in your favor. Find tweak X and make it happen. Mine was moving tool kit to a TorHans bottle on downtube as a faring...in 2015...as well as new Castelli speedsuit.
2. A bigger gear. There are quite a few long fast places in Kona, and most folks spin out. I put an 11 on and really enjoyed sustained upper 20s and low 30s for those spaces...
3. Aggressive in the groups. You know the road is insane with folks, and drafting is rampant. If you are racing out, you need to find a way to "See" the other rides moving through the field at that pace, mark them and work with them (legally) to get out of the masses. This means a bit more surge-y per Coach Rich in bridging to new wheels, changing speeds, etc.
If the stars align, you will find yourself in a great position on the return trip where you can ride your own race and fuel up / stay cool for the run with less of the costly wind, etc.
If things don't workout, you can still mitigate damage in second half of the bike and regroup for the run.
Any other race than Kona I might have you be crafty on the run...but that run...man, that RUN.
So is this official permission to move from a compact crank to 52 tooth big ring? I'm thinking about making the move beginning in August to get some time in. I'm guessing I'll run 12-25 ... I can't see an 11 tooth outweighing the smaller range mid-ring. But convince me otherwise!
davor. with my compact crank I moved to a 52. left the 34. using this with my new Etap. works fine except mild hesitations, at times, going from small to large chainring. I think officially, with the 52, the smallest chainring is supposed to be 36.
so with a 52/34 and 11-28, I can handle ALL types of course. I do like the 52/11 combo for downhills.
Dave,
It's great to always see you putting it out there. Most of my ideas have already been covered, which was taking advantage of the early bike miles and lower winds, the bigger gear for the down hills, and getting a legal draft maybe just going a little harder have someone pull you through traffic or to follow for 5-10K.
Beyond that if you are pushing the bike just that notch harder for 5 hours work the nutrition plan to ensure you can get in the calories at the harder effort and are set up for the run. The surges might cause some challenges and how do you deal with this
Finally I know you plan in great detail the extra effort may require more diligence on the cooling end to the extent that you can do that in Kona. I read some of your race plans and reports and not sure there's much more you can do here but something to think about as far a timing.
That's all I've got from and remember I'm a Kona web watcher, while I was actually there to watch the race once 9 years ago.
Gearing: now that I'm on 11spd, I'm running 52/36 and 28-11 for all of the climbing I do around here. I do have an annoying cadence gap at ~23.5-24.5mph, right in my sweet spot for riding on flat bike paths, which gets annoying on my weekend rides. Assuming better w/kg by Kona I'll definitely be moving to a 25-11. The 52-11 is plenty fast, though I may also investigate if I can put a 53 or 54 on there.
The 16t gear fills that gap. You will have a 16t on the 11-25. The 50/34 has the same gap at 22mph and have been using a 12-28 which also has a 16t gear. I spin out at 33mph / 100rpm, which is also annoying, but the D-Fly data shows that I spend very little time (5-7 minutes) above those speeds during IM races, so I have stuck with the 16t to reduce the VI.