Behler Racine 70.3 Race Plan - Help Needed
I'm racing Racine 70.3 on Sunday. My goal is to qualify for 70.3 Worlds in Chatanooga next year. This is the first qualifying face for 2017 so I expect few (if any) roll downs and I expect 4 (max 5) slots in the M40-44 age group. There's quite a bit of variation over the last couple years with 4th place requiring anywhere from a 4;!0 to a 4:35. My 'should' time is in the low 4:30s and my 'best case' time is 4:25. If I push too hard and have a sub optimal race I'm ok with that as my primary goal is to qualify so I want to give myself a chance. Looking at the bib list there are 4 'usual suspects' that put up top 5 times consistently each year. That said, I understand Adam Zucco is coming off injury and surgery this spring so not sure where he is performance-wise.
One of the challenges is that my AG is broken up into three waves so I won't know for sure where I am relative to my AG. I'm in the first wave, so if I get passed if it's by someone in wave 2 or 3 it will be too late to do anything about it in most cases. My current plan is to push on the bike a bit harder than normal and use RPE to keep myself from overdoing it and then running as I normally would for the first 6 miles and at the turnaround begin to turn it up gradually through mile 10-11 before a final push.
Thoughts/suggestions from others on how to race given the above?
Comments
Hey Jeremy,
You know how to race these things better than I do, so take my comments with a bucket of salt. But prior to EN, I use to race 70.3's pretty stupidly - that is, racing against friends and competitors. Sometimes it worked, other times not so much. But, at the end of the day, you really just have to put up the fastest time you possibly can.
The swim will be the standard mess. The only time I've done well (sub-30) in a later wave is when I was able to swim inside the buoys. Pay close attention to the fist 10 or so waves, see if there are currents, see if kayakers are letting people inside the buoys. Even the fastest swimmers can't swim fast over/through hundreds of prior-wave swimmers.
Plan your TAs carefully. Assume they both will be jammed with people and walking bikes. Look for short-cuts. Try to save 30-60 seconds over the top guys. Free time.
You'll have three waves of ladies in front of you, then the 45-49 men. I bet by mile 20 of the bike, you'll be in front of most of the women and may actually have some relatively open roads. Then again, it could be crowded the whole time. But if you do get some more open roads for the last half of the bike, it'll give you a better opp to mark anyone passing you. If someone in your AG passes you after Mile 35 or 40, he's probably in a wave behind you. Otherwise, he's a terrible swimmer. And if he's a terrible swimmer, he probably can't run either - so, ignore him. Think about it: how many 2:15/1:25 guys do you know who swim :45-50 minutes? I don't. But I do know quite a few :45/2:15/1:50 guys. For those 40-44 guys who do pass you, try to remember as many of their uniforms as possible, reminding yourself that at least half of them will run over 1:30, which means you can make up that 4-minute lead they now have.
The run is out-and-back with many chances to mark, and time, the gaps with your known competitors. Which is perfect. You can't worry about the unknown ones behind you. If Zucco's in top form and passes you on the run, it might be silly to try and go with him, as he already has 8 minutes on you. But, otherwise, with your foot speed, you should try to respond to just about anyone who passes you. But don't let the pressure/fun of racing derail your hydration and heat-management plans. At Mile 10 or so, assume you're in 6th place. If you pass someone in your AG in Mile 11, you're still in 6th place.
Best of luck. I'll be tracking your progress/success.
MR
I've got no strategy or tactical tips. Just a thought to keep in mind.
You've got more in you than your numbers might indicate. It's just waiting to be called upon. Consider going, if not physically, then mentally without your HRM and pace watch. You;ve been at this long enough your sense of effort and pace are well honed. On the bike, keep pushing at what it feels like at the very low end of your race pace "plus" intervals. And on the run, it should start feeling by half way through like your MP effort level while training, then work up to HMP thru mile 10, into TP for the final 2-3 miles, hitting 5K effort for the last min or so. Your pace won;t get any faster, but you won;t slow down.
Not debilitating, just an annoyance while you are riding.
At Muncie there were about four unclaimed AG spots. Those typically roll first to M35-39 then to your AG.