How do you choose your Best Race?
After my success at IMLP which I hope to Validate at IMWI in a few weeks, I am contemplating the serious "all in" for an attempt at moving up the ladder to reach for the podium & potential for KQ in 2017. Yes (Jeremy Behler) I actually wrote that
, but boy am I hedging
So.. this begs the question... how does one pick the best course for themselves? As in certain horses do better on certain courses. I think back a few years where R coached P on switching his A race from LP to TX and how P dominated Texas thereafter.
Me - I like hills, I know how to work them. If I know a course, I am fearless on the downhill. I like that hills tear up the competition and eventually spit them out when they race them wrong. I have a lower back weakness (one of the items on my strengthening list that I have woefully ignored) so the thought of riding X watts in aero for 5.5 hrs.. bothers me... That for me essentially eliminates TX, KY, MD, AZ, FL. I'd also prefer not to do TX as I am planning on doing the NYC Mary in early Nov and would have a tough time jumping into the NOV OS.. Though if I am going after podium and All in on IM, then clearly NYCM may have to take a back seat.
Already signed up for LP next year. Planning on the NC Camp with P In April (or is that May) and building other camps whether away or at home for a month before & a month after. Thinking about any of: Choo, MD, or KY.
- Swim is my weakest discipline, even if I bump my swim up to a 1:05 from it's current 1:09-1?10 if I can validate that at WI. I believe this points to Choo & KY with down current swims that shorten the amount of time that stronger swimmers get to dominate me.
- Bike is my strongest discipline. So I am thinking that nixes Choo with it's fast bike course and tougher run. I raced at 3.8 w/kg, hope to get close to 4.0 by WI(Body Comp gains) and hope to race next year at 4.2(wattage gains & body comp continued focus)
- Run is Good, not best, room for big improvement, can run downhill better than most, can get working on hills sooner than most, live in a hilly area that I can take advantage of.
I am thinking KY - Swim that lessens time that the fish dominate me. Good hilly course that has enough to take a lot of people out of the game. Flatish run (I've done this course before)
Welcome the team's thoughts on this!
Comments
Background. IMO, the racer makes the result, not the course. I've done multiple IMs on 4 different courses, plus single IMs on 4 others. Some flat, some hilly, some with cold swims, some with warm, some on hot days, some on cold. I find no pattern in what has worked for me. (note the equal number of KQs at AZ and CDA.) You may pick the "ideal" course, and then find on race day that (a) five other really fast guys showed up, while no one did at that other race the same weekend, or the week before or after or (b) a friggin hurricane or earthquake or heat wave or windy cold snap ruined your plans.
For *you*, I note that LP has the "easiest" swim course I've personally done, easy meaning easiest to reach my potential on. You have the downhill into Keane *nailed*. You understand the nature of the run, i.e. Those hills in the last couple of miles. You feel at home there. Etc. etc. Looking to do well out of the box on a new course in an unfamiliar locale is tricky. Go ahead and sign up for Choo (cause it fills first), then if you change your mind say, next April or May, you'll probably be able to switch to another fall IM.
But when I said podium was your next step, I was thinking LP was the place to go all in for that. Then think of the Fall IM as the Revenge option.
Come to CO end of May and climb like crazy, pull a Jeremy and go 600 miles in a week. Then dedicate six weeks in June and July to a thoughtful pure IM race prep. A good IM racer relies on his preparation and execution, not the nature of the course, to assure a quality result.
@Scott,
My quick thoughts, as yours are questions I've asked myself as I took to take a stab at in '18 when I age up 50-54. This year, I'm just steadily building the machine, trying to get stronger on the run through consistency. When fully trained, I can go sub-60, 4 w/kg and 51 vDOT. But those numbers won't put me in the top tier of my current or next AG at nearly any race. In terms of overall time, I need to go sub-10 at the fast ones, 10:15ish for the medium ones and 10:30ish for the tough ones. That's just to have a chance. Because my goal should be to try to get to the top of the second tier (maybe 3rd-8th place), I will definitely be looking for a race that meets my strengths and with more slots/competitor, whether that be a regional with more gross slots or a smaller race where there's only 3 slots, but also only 120 guys in my AG. Louisville would be a good course for you for sure.
P.S. I'll be at Blue Ridge with you next year in April and LP in July.
MR
1st Attempt - IM South Africa. I am finally picking an early season race that allows me to train in the "winter" where I'm not spending so much time recovering from heat exhaustion as much as the volume. And I'll be able to run. That left IMTX and IMSA, both 75 slot races with a chance for 2 slots in M60. I don't like anything I've read about the swim at IMTX and there is still potential for hot weather on the new date. Flat course. IMSA will be tougher. It's a toss up and my Sherpa wants to go to SA so that's it.
2nd Attempt - IMNC which I expect to be 21 Oct 2017, 1 week after Kona so highly unlikely any 60+ folks will try to punch their ticket again just 7 days later. Tidal swim assist will help me. Flat bike course but I do well on both flats & hills. Potential for cold weather. If others are freezing I'm fine. One slot only... have to win.
Will see also in November with IMAZ how I can manage that one.
@Paul - interesting analysis about the lack of KQers at NC... same works for KY given that it is the same day as Kona!
Looking like LP & KY..
An observation...My AG is small enough that I can easily research all those who are signed up, to see who *might* be fast enough to compete with me. I found one each in CHOO and MD...and FIVE in KY. So, sure, those @ Kona won't be there, but those who are trying to get to Kona may all see an opportunity. Repeating my point...you just can't make assumptions about your competition, it's you who makes the race.
Scott,
Beyond what's already been said. How do you do in the heat? Choo, KY will be hotter than LP, most likely will they not? Other than that how does your schedule set up for a two IM season, with the 2nd for a revenge opportunity as Al mentioned? I'm not one two be commenting on any of this but I'll say out of the 2 IM's in a season discussion.
My thought process is more on the how much time do you need versus the best IM:
If you look at an early season IM like TX then what's the plan look like to get the swimming, cycling and running increases that you need? 5' for the swim is fairly significant along with going from 3.8 to 4 then 4.2 watt/kg. Again going from 4-4.2 is a solid undertaking. I do note you did not outline any goals for the run but you note room for big improvement. Does this mean you need to attend the Florida training camp and extend that out a bit versus the other EN event a little later in the year.
So how do you get from IMWI to the 2017 IM and make most or all of these improvements? LP in 2017 gives you the time to focus on 2016 recovery then have a longer run at making the improvements to get you to Kona in 2017. If you need more training time later IM's to consider might be Coeur d'Alene or Trembant in August. This would buy you another 4 week block of training over IMLP.
Beyond that get fixing that back weakness as it kept you out of the race in LP one year (2015?) and will be a game changer for your 2017 season should it flare up.