Paul Curtin IM Lou 2016 - Race Plan
The Race:
Ironman Louisville 2016 will be my third Ironman: I completed IM Canada 1998 and IM Wisconsin 2002. Given the 14-year gap between races, and that I had no idea what I was doing back then, I’m going with a rookie mindset. Here are my guiding principles for race day:
- Take what the day brings you
- Make good choices all day
- You are always in control
Summary Agenda:
Wednesday:
Early run; breakfast at home
Final gear check
Pack SUV; leave Waynesville at noon or so
Arrive; check in to hotel
Supplies at Kroger and Whole Foods
Dinner
Thursday:
Early-morning swim at downtown Y
Bike course recon ride; lunch in La Grange (perhaps)
Athlete check-in
Try for 2:00 p.m. athlete briefing (no worries if I miss it)
EN team dinner at Hard Rock Café 6:30
Friday:
Run to swim start and back; breakfast at hotel
11:00 a.m. athlete briefing; meet EN gang; team photo
12:45 p.m. EN team lunch at The Bristol
Pack gear bags
Dinner
Saturday:
Do not go anywhere near the practice swim
Objectives for the day: feet up; hydrate; watch IM Kona; visualize my race
Sometime around 3:00 p.m.: Bike and gear bag check-in
Evening: Olive Garden carry-out at hotel
Sunday:
Race morning Schedule:
|
Time |
Task |
|
3:30 a.m. |
Wake up and eat (oatmeal, juice, Core Power, scrambled eggs, smoothie … depends on how hungry I am … don’t force it down) |
|
4:45 |
Leave for transition with Jay and David (my sherpas) |
|
5:00 |
Get in line for transition open (the Athlete Guide says 5:15) |
|
5:20 |
Decide whether to do body marking at North Lawn or just skip it and head to swim line (Athlete Guide says body marking starts at 5:30) |
|
5:30 |
Ride street bike from transition to swim start – meet Jay there with bike lock |
|
5:35 |
Get in line for swim start; don’t sweat it regardless of where I land in line |
|
7:15 |
Put on swim gear and wetsuit for 7:30 rolling start |
Once in transition I’ll put the bottles on the frame, fill the TorHans, and then calibrate the Garmin and PowerTap meter. No filling tires with air – that’s too stressful. If I bring them fully inflated to Saturday’s bike check-in they’ll be fine on race day. (As a side note, I rode 112, 112, and 68 miles during the second race rehearsal weekend without needing air – the tires stayed nicely inflated it seemed)
Logistically, the start of IM Lou is a bit of a cluster. The swim start location is about 1 mile from transition. It’s a rolling start with a FIFO order (first in, first out). Last year they had body marking at the swim start but this year it will be just outside of transition. I’d like to be in the first third of the swim line so I’ll have to figure out whether to do the official body marking or just do my own.
I’m planning to ride my Giant street bike from transition to the swim start. Pretty much everyone else will walk there so hopefully I’ll cut out some time and stress. There could be up to two hours of just sitting there, but the way I figure it I’ll be anxious no matter where I am (at hotel, standing around transition, etc.), so it’s better to hang out in line. And try and stay warm. I’ll have food to eat a small second breakfast, and plenty of fluids. Hopefully there won’t be an issue with getting out of line to use the port-a-potty.
The Swim:
The swim course can be broken into thirds: the first third is up the channel to the turn-around buoy; the second third to the end of Towhead Island; and the final third goes under the bridges to the finish. I want to be on the right side of the channel; it seemed last year that most folks drifted left and it looked crowded. Bi-lateral breathing would be best but on race day I usually wind up with a 95% turn-right-to-breathe technique.
I’ve decided not to wear the Garmin for the swim. The time is the time, and I’ll get my split afterwards. If I keep my head down and avoid contact I can hopefully get into a groove. After the turn buoy there should be more open water. I want to stay right and use the line of kayaks as markers; if there’s a current it will likely be strongest on the right side.
At the swim exit there are a fairly wide set of stairs, but last year everyone seemed to hug the left side and it got backed up. I’m staying right, and will use the wetsuit strippers on that same side. There’s about a quarter-mile run to the transition – as I recall it’s kind of tricky with a narrow walkway and a set of stairs to navigate.
T1:
Assuming the current weather forecast holds, it will be chilly to start the bike – expecting 49-52 degrees. Unfortunately at that temperature I must do a full gear change into dry clothing. Clearly this will add time, but to me it’s worth the comfort factor to not be damp and cold when riding. If it takes me an extra 90 seconds for this, I’ll easily get it back in long-term time savings from not missing nutrition or fluids in those early miles. I’ll put on all my gear, including shoes, and then jog out of transition to grab the bike. No need to be fancy here – just stay clear of people when running out and getting on the bike.
The Bike:
The biggest question for my ride is which power number I’ll get. It’s been highly variable. Some days I seem to have much more power for a given heart rate. Of course I’ll be watching heart rate as the primary metric; I’m just highly curious as to what the NP will show for each 5-mile lap.
My metrics:
· -- Weight: 75 Kg (down from 85 when I started with EN!)
· -- FTP: 285 from the last successful test in June
· -- 5-Hour Power: 215-220 NP (with HR in high zone 2)
· -- Expected IF for race day: .72
Here’s a list of some key rides that I had:
|
Date |
Distance |
PNorm |
Avg. HR |
Notes / Link to Workout |
|
Aug 6 |
91 |
208 |
139 |
Chattanooga Race Camp Day 2 Ride |
|
Aug 21 |
101 |
231 |
138 |
7 x 25’ Zone 3 |
|
Aug 27 |
93 |
218 |
140 |
IM Lou Race Rehearsal ride with Trent |
|
Sept 10 |
106 |
220 |
141 |
8 x 25’ Zone 3 (faded towards the end) |
|
Sept 11 |
71 |
227 |
134 |
ABP Ride (very good power for this ride) |
|
Sept 17 |
85 |
220 |
143 |
8 x 20’ Zone 3 (Brick workout; didn’t run well) |
|
Sept 23 |
112 |
207 |
138 |
Race Rehearsal Ride 1 (Ran after, was slow) |
|
Sept 24 |
112 |
199 |
130 |
RR Ride 2 – lots of JRA (Ran after, was much faster) |
Based on all this information, here are my conclusions:
· 1) My JRA heart rate should be in the 128-133 range
· 2) My comfortable Zone 2 HR is in the 136-140 range
· 3) Going above 140 for long periods of time will impact my ability to run well
· 4) Using both the [FTP x 0.72] formula, and the empirical evidence from prior rides, power on race day should be 205 or so
· 5) The best-case VI number, given the hilly course and the EN approach of JRA in the early miles, should be about 1.05
Bike Nutrition Plan:
|
Hour |
Solid |
Gel |
Liquid |
Total |
|
1 |
240 (Clif Bar) |
100 (Clif gel) |
200 (Tailwind) Water |
540 |
|
2 |
110 (PowerBar half) |
None |
280 (Infinit) 120 (GE – 2/3) |
510 |
|
3 |
110 (PowerBar half) |
200 (2 gel) |
180 (GE) Water |
490 |
|
4 |
None |
100 (Clif Blox) 100 (Gel) |
180 (GE) Water |
380 |
|
5 |
None |
200 (Clif Blox) |
100 (GE) Water |
300 |
|
5.5 |
None |
100 (Clif Blox) |
50 (GE) Water |
150 |
Keys to a Successful Bike Leg:
· -- Shift wisely for 112 miles; use several gears on the climbs; begin to shift down at the crest of each hill; put the Di2 investment to good use
· -- Be steady; no spiking watts on hills; I have plenty of gears (52/36 with 11/25)
· -- Pass with reduced urgency; don’t spike to get past others; use all 25 seconds as needed
· -- Stay areo as much as possible; pedal standing up every once in a while
· -- Mile 80 to T2 is a nice long downhill stretch; hold a steady pace throughout
· -- Do not try the flying dismount; it doesn’t work well with bottles behind the seat!
T2:
Since it’s likely that I’ll change into bike gear in T1, I’ll have to change into running gear in T2. My wife thinks this is crazy. Some of you will probably think so as well. But here’s my rationale: if I’m going to run well, I have to feel like a runner, and that starts with being dressed like a runner. Even if I had the EN speed suit I still couldn’t run in it – it’s just not comfortable for me after a few miles. So transition will be to remove the biking outfit, put on tri shorts and running top, then shoes and socks, grab the waist pack and the go bag and head out.
The Run:
I’m nervous about the run. I really don’t know what to expect. On some stand-alone long runs I’ve done very well, but for the most part have struggled on brick runs.
Here are some key run workouts:
|
Date |
Distance |
NGP |
Avg. HR |
Notes / Link to Workout |
|
Aug 19 |
9.4 |
8:42 |
139 |
Split Run 1 |
|
Aug 25 |
14.1 |
8:46 |
142 |
Long Run |
|
Sept 3 |
6 |
8:59 |
139 |
Brick Run (legs were heavy) |
|
Sept 4 |
15.3 |
7:53 |
145 |
Camp Long Run |
|
Sept 8 |
15.5 |
8:04 |
137 |
Treadmill Long Run (no pace data) |
|
Sept 15 |
20.1 |
8:07 |
138 |
Ironman RR Run |
|
Sept 20 |
16.1 |
7:38 |
150 |
Last Long Run |
My 5K VDOT is about 50 but my 13.1-mile number is probably 46. Frankly I’m not really sure what the current VDOT is. But I’m going with the more conservative guess. Based on the EN Pace Chart, that would translate to about a 9:10 pace.
The plan is to run the first 6 miles at my expected last-hour bike HR. That should be 138 as an HR cap. If HR is lower, that’s fine; I’ll focus instead on taking in calories and fluids. If I’m running faster I need to slow it down.
It’s critical that I get an early focus on form and stride rate – I seem to run best at about 90 strides per minute with my arms relaxed and moving in a forward direction (not inwards). I plan to walk each aid station, just to ensure I drink 4-6 oz. of fluids. I did this on all my long runs, and hopefully I’m now used to the constant stop/start action. Nutrition will be gels and Bloxs for as long as I can tolerate them, then Coke or Red Bull.
Miles 7-18 should be highly interesting. I expect HR to creep up even with a steady run pace, so it’s a matter of how much creep I can tolerate. I’m hoping to have a decent pace with HR in the low 140’s. Somewhere around mile 18 I expect to see my heart rate dropping. This is where the fight begins. It’s an eight-round bout. I’m ready for it.
Comments
Love the format of your Race Plan Paul. Also , enjoyed watching you throughout the training cycle on Strava! You're ready bro!
IMLV was my first IM back in 2009. One of my favorites as well.
1/3 of the swim is up the channel out of the main river, however, there is still some current to fight. When I did this race it was not wetsuit legal and, we ran into a very shallow patch in this 1/3 where many would stand up and walk in 2.5 feet of water. If you hit that patch, I recommend you swim as far as you absolutely can without standing up, you'll move faster than the others walking in the water.
Your bike nutrition plan looks right on target to me and well thought out. Expect your bike HR to be 5-10 beats higher than your RRs unless those RRs included a 2.4 mile swim right before the bike, otherwise, you'll see some of that swim fatigue in those bike HRs. Take that extra T1 time to calm down if you can and get that HR as low as possible and keep it low the first 20 miles of the bike before you begin to go to work on the bike. Hard to go too easy that first 20 miles but definitely a good way to mess up the rest of your day going out too hard.
Run is all execution coming off of a very smart bike as you by now know having completed IMWI and IMC!
Wish you great skill and execution PC! Represent strong and smart!
SS
Nice plan...see you in a couple days!
@Ed - thanks, I really don't know what to expect so I can't put a time on anything. Get the heart rate down on the bike, roger that! See you soon ... and looking forward to riding Thursday if that still works for you.