Urgent Help: IMNC 78.6 Strategy
Due to flooding of some of the roads and bridges on the northern part of the IMNC course, WTC just announced they were re-routing it and having both the 70.3 and 140.6 athletes do the same "50-ish" mile course. My initial reaction was loud and juvenile, but I was alone in my car, windows rolled up. No harm, no foul. Then the mature side took over, reminding me that this is a game for me and that a lot of people's lives are upside down and literally floating down the river right now. The $500 Matthew did to our house pales by comparison.
So . . . back to the race, still trying to digest this giant shitburger as I pack the SUV and prepare to head to Wilmington, I've considered many options over the past 30 minutes, some rationale, some not so much. They've ranged from screw-it, to trying to transfer, to dropping out after the bike and go BQ at a marathon in a week or two. Currently, while still chewing on said burger, I was just reminded by Dinhofer that I am still a swim-runner whether I like it or not. Thus, I need to man up, go bring my dollars to an area that needs them, and come up with a plan so that I can put up the fastest possible OA time I can.
Assuming I swim the 2.4 no differently than I would in a real Ironman, and assuming the new bike route will be on dead-flat roads (there are no hill options),
- Do I pace the bike like a 70.3 at .80-85 IF?
- Do I stick with IM plan of .70 IF out of respect for what follows (26.2)?
- Or something in between, say 70.3-Light, like .77-78?
Right now, I'm leaning towards Door #3 and targeting 195-205 watts instead of my intended 175-80?
Once on the run, should I still go conservative the first 6 miles or shorten it to 3 and then step on the gas?
Thanks in advance, team.
MR
Comments
Mike...my $.02. I like Door #3. If you do #1, you will blow up your legs for the run. Others will try to do this, and they will pay for it in the last 10 miles of the run. If you do #2, you will have a good run but maybe leaving time on the course. #3 seems like the right mix, especially since you've been training to for the full 112 miles. Of course, depending on the heat & humidity, you may want to monitor your IF carefully and drop back to 72% if need be. On the run, I'd still go conservative for 6 miles, then step on the gas. You still want to have a great run so you can blow by those guys who rode too hard.
Good luck.
I would bike a bit faster and my "conservative 6 miles" would be a bit less conservative (so yes #3 sounds good). I think this format will actually fit u better... Good skills out there and stay safe
You are a strong swimmer that will get out of the water quickly.. not alot of people in front of you on the bike, hammer the bike and run with RPE.
Mike, my thought is use the racer brain. How much faster on a flat course are you at the higher watts. You are very aero but there is definitely a wattage where the effort is not returned in speed at the same rate. Is that 20 or 30 watts higher, only you really know. Like Tim said there will be racers there. What is your fastest stand alone marathon and how fast do you think you could run after a 50 mile ABP ride? Do you think anyone in your age group will be close to that? I think I recall your ABP speed is pretty high. I know you can run a fast marathon. So, my thought is to back off the pace to .77 IF on the bike and then execute the perfect marathon. Good luck.
Seriously, reading all of this after it's written, I am trying to digest the people I know best, etc.. I know I've done some full IMs where I felt like I overcooked the bike a bit and backed off to have a successful run. I'd probably plan for 5 miles at .8, evaluate from there, 15 minute resets on the garmin to recalculate NP/IF. tape the wattage/IF #s to your bars or write them with a sharpie on your forearm, unless you can commit to memory..
Key here is to go harder than you think possible, but not as hard as the really stoopid people, a mary is a mary.. respect it, that said, why can't you have your BQ in NC on Saturday... Set up for THAT!
the old line from 4 keys, if you don't think you biked hard enough, you have 26 miles to prove that point!
I would expect you:
+ to ride more conservative than you think you should, but faster than IM guidance.
hope there is a nugget of something as intelligent as what ^^they^ said!+ be smart and evaluate
+ Set up for a faster Mary than usual
+ Negative split the Mary as you don't want to overcook it in the first half only to blow up..
Does it not matter what your goal was going in? Was this to be a KQ attempt for you? I am sorry, I didn't read your plan, but it seems to me you should honor your plan here, meaning if you were planning to focus on setting up a solid/steady run-the-whole-thing at all costs, you go door #3. But if you were thinking this was your chance for a KQ, I agree with Cronk and Trent and ride hard - the tip of the spear absolutely will. If you go out at .81-.85, that is a lot of heat and I would guess your legs will feel mighty similar to a .7 112 effort, so you could pace your marathon as you would an IM.
Having read nearly all of your comments, I am reminded of your tag "its the bike...". Not sure what that meant to you before, but maybe it means to tear that shit up!
Hmmm...here's my 2¢, based on your FTP and VDOT, and based on what I would do if I had still had those #s like I did 10 years ago:
Great opportunity. Have fun with it!
So, I'm just going to race it. I'm going to swim my face off, on the rivet the whole time, fighting to stay with the fish, but never quite crossing the anaerobic line and blowing up. And, if I blow up, so what. I need to put 5 minutes on my competiton. Will ace the transitions, although I will need arm warmers and gloves for the 45 degree, windy ride. I need to ride at wattage that would propel me to at least 23-24mph on a "normal" day. This is in the 200-10 range. That's .80 IF, but I'll rely heavily on RPE to adjust up or down, trying to find that fine line and keep from crossing over. To go meaningfully faster (i.e., 25mph), I would need to get closer to FTP wattage, and that's a fool's game. I really can't give up more than 15 minutes to the front group in my AG, other than the pure bikers who have no other play but to ride at 28mph. Then I'm going to start the run HIM-conservatively, based on bike HR and RPE. Probably 8:15 or so pace for the first 3, then re-assess. I'm hoping I feel like I do at Mile 3 of a HIM and can begin to run close to normal stride/pace. I'm in sub-3:15 standalone shape right now, so I want to shoot for 3:30/8:00 pace. If I blow up, who cares. If I somehow feel good at the halfway point, sub-3:25 = BQ.
I will definitely go a bit lighter on calories on the bike, all liquid/gels. Will walk early stations on the run, especially if HR is way high. But it will be in the high 50's/low 60's, which makes hydration and nutrition (and HR) way easier to manage. The second loop will be full of "70.3" racers on their first, so efficient aid station management will be very important. Assuming bike course really turns out to be 50 miles and the swim isn't a contra-current slog, I need to bust 7 hours to make the first page, hit 6:45 to make it interesting. And if I blow up trying and don't reach either . . .
I am little late to this post, sorry.
Do what I do whenever I get a shitburger:
1) Recognize this is a shitburger and call it like it is.....
2)Move forward, put some mayo, mustard, ketchup, salt pepper on it. Add some Cronk dust, Truscott powder and DJ sauce (if the cranks are in good shape) and look for the silver lining......(read my signature line.)
In your case and IMO, you have a distinct advantage at this race. You are one of the best race execution peeps I know having done two IMs with you and you deal with changes in a very smart way. While your competitors are still looking at this shitburger, complaining and stuck in their negative thoughts, you have taken it, moved forward, put together a strategy that will leverage your experience and strengths in terms of racing this modified course much smarter. No way I would skip that opportunity. All 7 of my IMs had some kind of shit burger, you got a BIG MAC but you got it upfront well in enough time to take advantage and use it to your benefit.
Now, I was thinking the same as Tim in terms of TSS and Al but got to the party late. I too, was going to say not to change anything on the swim (just don't go anaerobic).....
If you manage a .85-.86 IF for 50 miles and come in between 2:15 - 2:25 that is about ~170 TSS, much less than the 285 -290 TSS IM bike load. Gonna be hard to go over .86 simply because you really have not trained nor built the fast twitch muscle base needed for that in my view. As Al noted, will be more difficult to digest IM bike calories at that effort level, so for me, I would be going with liquid only on the lighter side of the drink mix concentration but maintaining sodium plan. May need to consider a bit more caffeine as well. I would still behave myself on the first ten miles of the bike (vs. 20 in an IM) and try to get that HR down to a good point from which to go to work. That means you're going to be pulling something higher than the .85 on the last 15 miles of the bike most likely.......sounds like BIG fun and complete insanity but remember, I'll be watching virtually.
I can't really give you advice on the run. You're a strong runner and mentally tough as well. I would still be careful on the first 6 miles using HR and, if you feel like you gave something up on the first 6, you can take out your revenge on the last 8 of the marathon.
Wishing you great skill and execution. I really think you will excel in your AG given this weird course, what it will do to your competitors and how smart you will be going in with the adjustments you make.
SS