Help me pick my Next IM (Choo, LV or Los Cabos)

scott dinhofer

As my signature has stated all year, my second IM of the year was to be "IM-TBD" 
now it is time to determine that.. 

It's post LP where I laid it all out to go after the big prize, a KQ. While I came very close to my targets, the field was stacked in my age group. 3 of the top Ten by AWA rankings were at LP this year and #1 ranked in the world went 3rd! I improved from a 209 overall to a 163 but dropped from 10 to 14th in AG... 

sooo... the thoughts are - Chattanooga, Louisville, or Los Cabos..
Los Cabos is far, not an easy course, in November, and while it has very few participants, they are all online, there are probably 3 guys I'd pray to beat and another 5 that are probably my mirrors in the prayer session out of a total of around 30, it's also Mid-November and frankly, by that point I am thinking NOS, DOS or JOS.. 

Louisville - (10 weeks away)
"downhill" swim, but not as much as Choo. Difference between the two is probably less than 5 minutes, which means it's really choosing between the bike/run courses
LV bike course is very manageable and hilly, not climbing hilly, but constant adjustments in power (I did LV in 2011 as my 2nd IM) this is exactly the kind of course that flat power riders will gain a huge advantage on, the run is pancake flat. 

Chattanooga - (8 weeks away)
faster swim, so that helps me really take the swimmers off the table since it's my weakest of the three disciplines. It's two weeks earlier than LV, which also risks a pretty hot day in the South. The bike (from what I understand, never been there) is very manageable and fast. the run, is a beast, hilly, but that shouldn't scare me, I've conquered the hills at LP & Tremblant, yes, these are rumored to be worse.

I would love to get insights, feedback & support of those that know me and my skills, as well as those that know the courses.

Time is of the essence as Choo has less than 10 regular entry slots left. 

Thanks all!

Francis Picard

FWIW, I had the exact 3 same races as you are listing and here are the reason why I decided to go with LV

Los Cabos: It too late, I really struggle to finish IMAZ training last year and didnt want do it again and also wish to jump in NOS. Also, going in Los Cabos would mean to bring the whole family $$$$

Choo:

Too close of IMMT, but I could had manage this but got invited to an important partner's conference that I can miss during that 10 days window. Also thought about the heat, coming from the North this could be tuff to manage

LV:

Swim is fast, run is flat which should help me considering my run. Only worry is the bike since I am a $hitty cyclist and also my familly wouldnt come, that cut the costs.. we also have a nice EN line up already going there, being 7 weeks post IMMT, I find it reasonnable to get back on the training horse by doing 2 weeks of transition and getting into camp week.

Since your goal is to KQ, I wonder if alot of people like you will be racing IMLV ? The run being flat in IMLV should help you considering you can run easily in hills.

Brian Hagan

Nothing to add other than I would love to see you at Louisville!

Paul Hough

If you run well in the heat then Chatt elsewise go to Louisville.   If you don't have success this fall then consider joining me at IM Norway next July.  First, it is limited to 2000 and I doubt they will get 1500.  Second, it is the same day as Austria and the week before the European Champs at IM Frankfurt...takes away a lot of competition.  Third, you can count on a cool run...60s, even possibly 50s.  Fourth, potentially fewer Kona takers due to the expense of travel from northern Europe to Hawaii.  Fifth, single loop bike with a lot of hills plus a hilly run.  

Danielle Santucci

2 time Lou finisher here and think you should go there. It's a great course/set up for you.  Perfect time of the year!

Mike Roberts

I've been looking at races for next year and have tons of thoughts, not convinced any of them has any worth here. I haven't checked the entry lists, but LV and Choo are both in the top half (if not quartile) of IMs in terms of difficulty, although that can be lessened if weather is good. Strong bikers who can't swim and are ok on the run show up at LV in droves, and strong runners who can't swim typically show at Choo. With those two races, you have zero time to improve on any weakness, so you're going in with what you got, perhaps a little flat from LP, probably against strong fields. I have full faith in you, as you know, but the odds aren't great at those two races. 

Cabo gives you more time to recover, perhaps tackle the swim a bit, and hope one or two of those studs doesn't show. And with a field of a few hundred, you'll have a better opp to really race one-on-one. If it don't work out, Cabo Wabo is down the street. 

Don't forget Coz. It gives you more time to rebound, may take out some out your competiton via the heat/humidity, and also rewards you with a vaca if you don't reach you race goals. 

scott dinhofer

Paul Hough said:

If you run well in the heat then Chatt elsewise go to Louisville.   If you don't have success this fall then consider joining me at IM Norway next July.  First, it is limited to 2000 and I doubt they will get 1500.  Second, it is the same day as Austria and the week before the European Champs at IM Frankfurt...takes away a lot of competition.  Third, you can count on a cool run...60s, even possibly 50s.  Fourth, potentially fewer Kona takers due to the expense of travel from northern Europe to Hawaii.  Fifth, single loop bike with a lot of hills plus a hilly run.  

you tell me all of ^^this^^ after I paid for LP 2018 today 

Al Truscott

Louisville. You can flirt with 10:30 there. Your competition, and abllity to recover, then ramp up again, is more important than the course. 

Qualify, and I'll go to HI next year to watch.

Paul Curtin

Dang, that's a tough decision Scott.

I hope Chattanooga is sold out by the time you decide, but only because it would be great to have you join us at Louisville.  Last year the 50-54 AG was stacked (3rd place was 10:07 or something); but times there seem to vary from year to year.  If the weather gets bad on October 15 I have a feeling you would crush the competition

However, I think Chatt is your best option.  That bike is harder than it may seem.  I rode it at camp last year.  Here's Saturday's ride (we drove the first 10 miles so this is the two-loop section)
https://www.strava.com/activities/666680772

Last year it was killer hot there ... KQ times were very slow by comparison.  If your primary objective is to KQ, that race seems to have the best potential given your strengths

tim cronk

I know we have talked about this but just wanted to say I am in the IMCHOO or IMLOU camp whichever fits your schedule better... I forget why you ruled out IMMD???  I think it was timing or schedule??? Not as easy a swim as IMCHOO or IMLOU which would suit you better but its much closer and easier to you!

Brian Harding

Join us at IMLOU Scott! Come on.., everyone's doing it.... It's going to be a fast course and hopefully the weather will be ideal for a KQ kind of day. 

Francis Picard

do I need to tell you in French that you must join us in IMLOU ???

do it! aha

Josh Church

I second the ability to run in heat. Last year the bike wasn't terrible to me but the run was hot by the first aid station. I was super lucky with a slow time and got 6th in my ag. You never know! Would love to have another join the CHOO crew this year. 

scott dinhofer

tim cronk said:

I know we have talked about this but just wanted to say I am in the IMCHOO or IMLOU camp whichever fits your schedule better... I forget why you ruled out IMMD???  I think it was timing or schedule??? Not as easy a swim as IMCHOO or IMLOU which would suit you better but its much closer and easier to you!

IMMD isn't even on the radar for both reasons you mention, I think the rest rank this way
IM Los Cabos -

• far away on calendar, can do a more proper training block
• will require huge commitment for a "2nd season."
• Limited, but "known" competition. 
• probably the "hardest" course of the three.

IMKY -

• won't give me as much of a boost on the swim as Choo, but probably a negligible effect on the outcome between the two.
• I've done the race and kind of "know" the course
• great bike to chew up people that don't ride it "right"
• fast run course

IM Choo - 

• compressed swim aids my weakness here
• longer, but fast bike, should be "easy" for me
• challenging run, but nothing I can't accomplish and i can train on similar terrain for all runs between now & then
• heat is a risk, but a hot day managed well creates an advantage

Totally humbled to have people asking me to join the team at their races. Need a few days on this one.

Jeff Kane

@Scott, lets continue to stack the team deck at IMLOU!

scott dinhofer

@Jeff Kane @Brian Harding @Francis Picard @Josh Church
perhaps we ought to have the KY & Choo teams rally up their resources... team with the largest donation to my withrow challenge fundraiser, wins? (be careful what you wish for !)