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2017 IM LOS CABOS Thread - or - Me talking to myself

jimmy augustinejimmy augustine
in Ironman Los Cabos
Im in. Before this one goes the way of the dodo.
I've heard that it is disorganized, hot, and a general mess.
Sounds about right.
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Comments

  • Paul HoughPaul Hough
    I am amazed they didn't pull the plug after last year.  Doesn't look like it will reach 500 participants.   Go get 'em!
  • Mike RobertsMike Roberts
    It's very curious that LC has 40 Kona slots for '18, despite having a handful of entrants, while Brazil, a race that has sold out (or close) for many years, gets its '18 Kona slots slashed from 75 to 30. Looks like Frankfurt, Texas, Cairns and SA - now with 80 - are the only regional champs. And don't get me started on the total nonsense of giving 50-75 slots to a handful of preferred 70.3's. 
  • scott dinhoferscott dinhofer
    @MR - which 70.3s? any outside of China?? That said, expect a big change in a couple of years once Wanda sells to what will likely be a non-chinese buyer. If you ask me, it will come back to a US or European Private Equity firm with a partner that has a Multi-sport interest. I expect them to buy it from Wanda for a lot less than they paid PEP for it. 

    While it is small in Wanda's balance sheet, I expect to see this get tossed as it is a non-core asset. 

    also shocked that it survived, but what is clear is that it is becoming a haven of pointy ended people. As you know i looked at the pointy ended people. There are at least as many fast guys there that will be at Louisville with all the headaches of travelling to Mexico and not speaking the language, at least I can somewhat understand a southern acent :smiley:

    @jimmy augustine  - curious what the draw was for you? 
  • Paul HoughPaul Hough
    @ Scott - I'm not buying that Wanda is going to unload WTC in the nearterm regardless of slowtwitch rumors.  Why would they have just bought Competitor Group?  Ironman continues to expand well beyond the core triathlon business.  They have a dozen plaques on the wall at their entrance of all the businesses now in their portfolio.  They moved to new offices a couple of months ago to expand the space as they pull in Competitor Group from San Diego, and they just announced last week they are doubling their footprint in Nov with a new lease to take the rest of the floor they occupy.  Outside of WTC it looks like stagnation, inside it looks like an explosion of growth going on.
  • scott dinhoferscott dinhofer
    @Paul Hough - Wanda and other Chinese "investment firms" have been on an acquisition tear. I have one of these as a client and am somewhat aware of how they've been working. At the end of the day, just like a US bank in the credit crisis, when they need to meet lines drawn in the sand by the Chinese Government on capital ratios, they will unload what they can at whatever price they can.

    Their real estate is going to be even harder to unload... just watch, good time to get good assets if you are a value player, just have to be patient enough to not catch a falling knife. What's old again is new again and in 2 years, we will be in a contraction that won't be as bad as the last one here in the US, but will probably be pretty ugly in China and other places. my $.02... 

    btw, it will become a great market to pick up 2 year old Tribikes and other fancy toys as well :neutral:
  • Francis PicardFrancis Picard
    what I learn from working in the M&A world:

    1) when you made enough profit/money out of an asset, its time to sell - you dont wanna be the owner when it will go down
    2) dont fall in love with your assets
    3) an asset is only a document in a portfolio - it worth nothing more.
  • Paul HoughPaul Hough
    Without seeing their books it is all speculation.  However, from what I read they made their capital ratio requirements when they sold their amusement parks.
  • Paul HoughPaul Hough
    @Jimmy - good call to do it now.  They announced on Facebook tonight that this is the last year.
  • jimmy augustinejimmy augustine
    @ Scott- the why is a small group of why's.
    time of year is right for work and family rhythms.
    wife likes a beach location.
    i want a race I haven't done before and I've done Florida and Cozumel.
    lastly, it isn't a "pr" course. It seems like a grind it out things will go wrong kind of course and that is what I am in the mood for.
    i will not be attempting to pointy end. Just execute well.
  • Brian TerwilligerBrian Terwilliger
    Looking at results from previous years, tons and tons of 10 hour plus AG winners.  Is the course / conditions that difficult or have the really fast stayed away from this race in the past?

    See the talk above about it being a bunch of pointy enders.  Which confuses me.  

    Deciding in the next few days if I want to do this race after Choo on Sept 24th.
  • jimmy augustinejimmy augustine
    @Brian - Im guessing it is the conditions. In 2015 they moved the race from spring to fall and the times dropped off pretty hard. Looking only at M45-49 (cuz that's all I care about :)) I also see a 15% DNF in 2015 and a 20% DNF in 2016. And the splits look slow across all 3 disciplines.
  • Rich StanbaughRich Stanbaugh
    @jimmy augustine  - I'm in... anyone else going to this race besides us?
  • Dave TalloDave Tallo
    I'm in a holding pattern ... it will be on a snap decision after Louisville.  But I'm tempted. 
  • jimmy augustinejimmy augustine
    I'm actually now out. Spousal veto forced me to switch to Arizona the following week. Sorry guys!
  • Rich StanbaughRich Stanbaugh
    @jimmy augustine - too bad... thought we would share the heat suffer-fest again :-)
    @Dave Tallo Would be awesome if you cane down... but I expect you will crush Louisville!


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