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VDOT increase amount?

I'm running my first open marathon in December.  I haven't tested VDOT since I was early into IMLP prep this year (it was 50) and have a run base of mid 30s to low 40 mile week average, with a couple near 50 miles.   I will be jumping into the balanced EN marathon plan next week.

For all the WSM and super runners out there, what kind of VDOT increase can one realistically expect over 3 months assuming you stay injury free?
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  • I believe the Daniels rule of thumb is 1 point per six weeks (in a dedicated run program).  

    I've never been able to move more than 2 points in any one block, myself.
  • Since you're at peak fitness, once you recover and get a couple weeks of running in, I'll give you 1 point,  If you do the EN Full Marathon Plan (I'm not sure what the Balance Plan entails), I bet you can get another point.  I ran a marathon PR 3 months after IMLP in 2015, on a hilly course.
  • Is 50 your max ever vDOT?  because returning to a higher vs setting a highest I think would be different answer.
  • Is your vDOT based on a 5k test?

    In my experience marathon training hasn't ever raised my vDOT, but what it does do is have your vDOT hold up over longer and longer distances. For instance, it wasn't until I went through a marathon training cycle that I was able to run a half marathon at my 5k vDOT. 

    I don't think I tested my 5k vDOT while in the middle of the marathon build, there is a chance it could have gone up in that timeframe but I doubt it.
  • @Scott Renick x2 what others have indicated... I think considering the high level of fitness you are coming from, dropping Swim/Bike and focussing on the Run can net you minimal gains in the Vdot deparment, larger gains in your Marathon pace department,  unless of course you have a history of much higher Vdot than 50 in which case I would imagine the gains would be more as you just rebuild what you already had.
  • I think this is a similar issue as evaluating FTP vs 5 hr power. The numbers don't necessarily hold up over distance. 
    I just ran a hilly (760' of climbing) half mary a week ago. I plugged that into a Vdot calculator and the answer was only 47.5. I thought it would be higher, maybe you can argue 48 for the hills?
    I went back and looked at a 5k I did on Thanksgiving and apparently that was only a 44.3, I had been SWAGing it higher..
    So, in 9 months I raised my Vdot over a longer distance a little over 2 points. I'd argue it might be higher as the half was not an A race and it was only 3 weeks after IMLP, as well as being hilly. Interested to see where I will be when I do the same turkey trot again this Thanksgiving
  • Thanks guys.  It sounds like you're all in the same range for expected gains.

    @Derrek Sanks I believe the "balanced" plan adds what averages out to a bike day per week vs. the regular full marathon plan.

    @Robert Sabo yes, 50 is my highest ever.

    @Peter Noyes yes, that 50 is from two 5K tests earlier this year.  The time from my only open half marathon (january 2016) translates to a 48.5 vdot.

    @Scott Dinhofer I saw your half mary results...it hurt my legs just thinking about it after LP.
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