Predicting Standalone Mary time

scott dinhofer

I am considering trying to muster the energy to do a solid run block after IMKY and do a flat BQ attemp at the Sacramento Marathon, Dec 3. I am figuring on needing a 3:27:30 to actually get into Boston '19 vs the "qualifying time"  of 3:30
My standalone mary PR was a 3:35 after blowing up trying to run a 3:24 at NYC in Nov 2013. I am & will be lighter at this event than I was then. 

Wondering how to run a predicted time off the half mary I ran 3 weeks after LP. 
1:36 with 750' of climing. https://www.strava.com/activities/1129723792
the Sacramento course is flat- downhill with a net loss of 350'

any guidelines on how to guesstimate this? @Coach Patrick?

Mike Westover

Scott, a few thoughts

• From the Runworks calculator (http://www.runworks.com/calculator.html) your 1:36 HM with 750' of gain/loss would be equivalent to about 1:33:35 on a flat course, or 48.7 vdot (vdot from https://runsmartproject.com/calculator/)
• Subtracting 1-1.5 vdot points would give you a time of 3:21:30-3:23:30 for a flat marathon course
• The steady downhill course might get you another minute or two, assuming you can use the hills to your advantage (not braking too much)
• To get into Boston 2018 you would have needed 3:26:37...and that was with tough weather conditions at Boston 2017 and other big qualifying races. Next year could be harder

If getting into Boston is your main goal, I would probably go out on pace for about a 3:25:00, which should still get you in with room to spare. You could always pick up the pace to run 3:24 if you are feeling good at mile 18-20. You can test that pace in your long runs to confirm you can maintain it easily.

Given the downhill Sacramento course, I might also start incorporating some downhill strides or (not too hard) downhill intervals once a week to help your legs prepare.

Mike Roberts

Rather than looking a hilly HM time run on thrashed legs and trying to project, I would just look at your IMLP run time, subtract 30 minutes, and say you easily have the engine to run 3:20.  But marathons are tricky things, and when the wheels fall off at 18 or 20 or 22, they really fall off.  Trust me, been there.  Me, personally?  I'm toast in the weeks after an IM.  Three weeks after one, no way.  But that's just me.  I wouldn't bet against you (seriously, I'm not going to, so you and @John Withrow keep your nonsense to yourselves).

That said, if you really want to run Boston '19, do what me and a few others are doing: run the ridiculously fast, downhill Phoenix Marathon at the end of February. 

Paul Curtin

Without accounting for hills, a 1:36 half should get you a 3:20 using Riegel's formula.  Considering you ran that on hills and 3 weeks post-LP is awfully impressive

How hard will you push at Lou?  Sacramento would be 7 weeks later, and you've got a season's worth of accumulated fatigue in your body

Mike Roberts

7 weeks?  Sorry, I saw 3 and went with it (I'm tired).  You can probably run fast 7 weeks after Lou, unless you dig a super big hole in two weeks. 

Jeremy Behler

I agree with most of @Mike Roberts  sentiments.    Without getting too much into the data look at your recent IM runs and you have more than you need to qualify....probably even at the AG below yours.   Key will be to have a focused, intentional recovery plan after IMLOU.   If it were me I'd do something like this post race.

Week 1 - totally based on feel.  No/very limited running.   Easy biking as active recover.
Week 2 - introduce some easy running.   Maybe a 4 runs and 25 miles.   Maybe a couple short Z4 intervals to see how the legs feel.   Long run of 12 miles.
Week 3 - Volume ramped up to 35-40 miles.   Long run of 16-18 miles at race pace and a 10 mile tempo run midweek.  
Week 4 - Jump into the last 4 weeks of the Marathon advanced plan at this point.   These don't get much discussion but the run specific plans are great....last one I followed led to a huge PR.

scott dinhofer

@JeremyBehler @Mike Roberts @Mike Westover @paul curtin - trying to gauge what's got better odds here, rebuilding after IMKY where i had better put it all out there or doing a full reboot, increasing the run durability & doing Phoenix.. 

the plus to doing Sacramento is that I can ramp up, keep myself focused between IMKY recovery & JOS start and essentially have mostly recovered from the Mary by the time I start the JOS. Doing a Mary in what is essentially the JOS will likely put a damper on my OS and my Mary results because of the accumulated fatigue I will be carrying 7 weeks into the OS...

I am fearful of the fact that calculators and smart people are saying I can run a 3:2X mary... wowzers

Al Truscott

Scott, first off, no question you can hit your time goal @ CIM early December. 13 years ago, I had my first BQ there with a time of ~ 3:28, and you are certainly faster now then I was then, as demonstrated by your recent IMLP run. That year, I raced Xterra World's in late October, and had no trouble coming back from that by first weekend of December. If you had a proper training build and ran a flat course for your HM, I have no doubt you would be 1:30 or better. So don't worry about your BQ capacity, only about when, how and where.

Thew Sacramento course is not really "downhill". It basically follows the river into town. As you know from biking there during ToC, the Central Valley is not undulating. 350' in 26 miles = 13 foot loss/mile. For reference, the Rio Grande Trail loses about 100' per mile. Another advantage is the weather. When I did it, temps @ the 7 AM start were in the high '30s, and on a clear day, barely reached 50s by finish time. Phoenix in February might be warmer, to say nothing of eating into a proper Outseason® and #Skiseason

As to training, I endorse the general direction Jeremy provides. Rolling over your IM fitness into a BQ attempt December 3 would work out great. Swim only to feel loose, and don't bother with your bike or the OS; pick that up again after the first of the year.

To answer your question of how to predict a stand-alone marathon time, the online running calculators are a good place to start. But they are idealized for a well-trained athlete. Since your training would not be ideal, don't set yourself up for failure by going out at a pace predicted by them from your VDOT (which is probably near 50 right now). Start the race at your LRP (about 8:15-8:30 by my estimation) for the first couple of miles, and work towards 7:45 by the end.

scott dinhofer

@all - thanks!!
@Al Truscott - thanks for the comparison to the RG, THAT is helpful!

plan is to do 2 weeks recovery, roll into a run focused plan,
swim on vasa 1-2x / week.
1 pool swim per week

I DO plan on some biking, but more for social aspects as follows - 

• Tuesday night gravel rides
• Weekend MTB rides
• group roadie rides of 1-3 hours
• everything will be unstructured Xtraining

tim cronk

Your BQ time is 3:30... Considering this year you needed an extra 3.5minutes I would target 3:25.... I find the calculators predicting M-time off vDot and HM-time to be QUITE optimistic... The faster/younger you are the smaller the differential and more believable IMO for these estimates....To give yourself a more realistic estimate I would go back and compare HM's to M's (HM time x2 subtracted from M time to see what your differential was) and apply that differential to your recent HM time... You can also look at differential from your old IM run compared to old M-times and see how that differential may apply to your recent IMLP run?
IMO the way you are currently running it will be no problem, any reduction in swim/bike will certainly help, but I think you could BQ if you do nothing more than maintain 30-40 MPW with 1 quality speed and 1 quality long run... Now if you were to drop 5-10lbs on top of that it will be like a walk in the park!

scott dinhofer

tim cronk said:

 Now if you were to drop 5-10lbs on top of that it will be like a walk in the park!

THE major point of doing this is to give me a post season focus on resetting my body comp range 8-10lbs lower than I have thus far achieved... the goal will be immeasurably helpful in THAT endeavor! i wanna be @tim cronk & @JeremyBehler Skinny!

scott dinhofer

Paul Curtin said:

Without accounting for hills, a 1:36 half should get you a 3:20 using Riegel's formula.  Considering you ran that on hills and 3 weeks post-LP is awfully impressive

How hard will you push at Lou?  Sacramento would be 7 weeks later, and you've got a season's worth of accumulated fatigue in your body

@Paul Curtin - interesting as my run fell apart in LV, one thing on my mind was that no matter how hard I would push, I'd not have the race i want... thoughts turned to "get it done, easier recovery, focus on the BQ...."

Paul Curtin

Great strategy @Scott Dinhofer.  I suspect that you may not need more than this week to get close to 100%