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Bill Manard's IMCoz race plan

Well, boys and girls, I guess it's time...  TL;DR version - training sucked so I'm not prepared, but I'll still probably at least come close to a PR.

Recent history - training has sucked since IMMT.  Work has made it tough to get regular training in (12 hours most days with overflow to weekends), and my motivation has honestly been lagging.  I've completed about 70% of prescribed workouts (on the IM minimalist plan), and I've not always been as attentive as I should be to those.  Additionally, because work has been rough, nutrition has been somewhat poor.  On the good side, I've been seeing good peak numbers in Zwift races recently (as some of you know), so I at least know I have some bike power with which to work.

Cozumel is a place with which I'm very familiar, having travelled there repeatedly for diving, and having done the 70.3 race there in 2015.  This makes logistics somewhat easier, as it's not a completely unfamiliar location.

Arriving to CUN on Thursday (Thanksgiving) and taking a shuttle to the Playa ferry, ferrying to CZM, then to the hotel.  Hope to arrive at the hotel in time to walk up the street to check in (about a 1 km walk) for the race.  I'll plan to carry my bike shoes and helmet with me so that I can go ahead and pick up my bike from TBT (time allowing).  Try to get a 5k or so run in, have a quality dinner (probably at Los Otates) and rest.

Friday - get up in time to do the practice swim (take a taxi there); this is contingent on getting my chip the day before (which is required for the swim).  If I don't make it in time, I'll plan to swim across from my hotel, which is what I did for the 70.3 previously.  Attend required briefing, take it easy otherwise, make sure the bike is ready to go (probably a short shake-out ride), and get to bed on time.

Saturday - make sure bags are all together, take shuttle with bike down to T1 to check in bike/bag, take shuttle back to hotel and walk to check in run bag at T2.  Otherwise legs up, probably simple dinner at hotel or close-by (haven't determined yet).

Sunday - up at 0430, eat/drink/other stuff, take shuttle to T1 to place nutrition on bike and check tires (and other bike setup including computer), take the shuttle to the swim start while continuing to sip on GE

Swim - recent experiences suggests that, given the current support this race has, I should like up in the 1:10-1:20 group, planning to finish about 1:18 (at worst).  Gel about 30 minutes before start, drink up until in the corral, time trial start at about 0740 (0730 is start, last time I did the 70.3 it took about 10' for me to get in).  Easy swim out to turn buoy.  Get in rhythm after making the turn.  Don't expect much contact, but plan to swim just inside buoy line until final turn back to dock at Chankanaab.  Out of the water feeling great and happy with my time (when I did the 70.3 there's a good picture of my surprise when looking at my watch).

T1 - run through showers.  Grab bag in tent and keep going.  Up hill and to bike.  Apply sunscreen.  Smooth movement.  Experience suggests about 5:00.  Out to the road and mount.

Bike - BBS plan is at bestbikesplit.com/public/66698 .  The suggested time seems a little fast to me; I'm aiming more for 6:00 or so (given a 2:58 in 2015 for the 70.3 and some FTP improvement since then).  Plan to hold ~135 W for first 20' or so, then increase to 145-150W (depending on HR; keep HR about 133-135).  Be prepared for heat and wind, especially on the east side of the island.  Gatorade (not GE) is on the course, which means my nutrition will be 1 bottle of Gatorade (160 kcal, 300 mg sodium) per AS as tolerated (13 AS, with a couple closely grouped, may make this tough) and sufficient water for intake of about 40 oz/hr and sodium intake of 700 mg/hr (supplementing with Salt Stick + as needed).  If additional calories needed, and at least intermittently for caffeine, Black Cherry Shot Blocks.  Brief stop at SN to refresh and stretch.  Entering T2 take feet out of shoes and plan to leave shoes on bike.

T2 - hand off bike, run through rack to grab bag, shoes on, go bag with hat/number/RaceSaver, apply sunscreen.  Bottle of fluids in bag to start run.  Should be about 4:00.

Run - the part I'm really concerned about due to my training.  Will keep HR at last hour bike HR, regardless of pace.  Stryd should read about 160W for this; if there's a mismatch, probably dehydrated (given the heat).  I'd expect a pace of about 12:30-13:00 for the first 5-6 miles, planning to increase as tolerated just before the second turn (3 lap race; second turn is 1/3 through).  At each AS, will plan to walk for ~10 steps at least initially, although I'd expect this to increase as the day goes on.  AS every km (yes, that's 42 AS passes).  Take agua, hielo, and Gatorade at each AS, with a gel or other supplemental calories every 4th-5th.  Will need about 6-8 oz fluids each AS.

Overall - plan 1:20 swim, 6:00 bike, 6:00 run, 0:10 transition, which comes out right at 14:00.  This would be a PR, but not unexpected on a flat course (which benefits me given my mass).  With the training deficits, we'll see how it bears out.

I couldn't have remained as adherent to my training as I have without all of you, especially the folks in GroupMe for the bike.  Whatever good happens, it'll be due to your inspiration.
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    I'm sure you will do better than you expect @Bill Manard. Your bike is looking strong and sounds like you have confidence in your swim. Running by HR sounds like a good plan. If they have ice don't forget the bag to hold it as you run.  Always fun in the bike group me.

    Have fun and execute!
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    Bill, sounds like all things are pointed towards goal #1: don't blow up on the run. 4.5 mph on the run should be very doable for a PR. A run like that is very possible even given minimal training. As long as you keep running.
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     You are being honest with yourself and I appreciate that. However, don’t underestimate all the good work you’ve already done this year.

    As Allen mentioned, the biggest differentiator between your projected time in your finish time will be mental toughness on the run. How much work can you really do?

    Sounds like you’re planning to do Gatorade and supplement  with salt. I chose to make a concentrated bottle of Gatorade endurance, and then put 2 ounces of that into a front bottle full of water with water coming from the stations. Both work.

    Yes, best bikes foot does not work well on the coast. So be mindful of that.

    Staying cool this critical early on… As this putting your “breaks” I had of time. Designate spots on the course where you have permission to rest and don’t deviate from that. This will help you stay focused when your mind starts playing tricks on you.

    Remember to have fun! 
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    @Bill Manard
    You are probably more ready than you think considering its your 2nd race of the year. Be smart on the bike to settle a good run and keep in mind of stayng cool and on top of your hydration and it should be a good race.

    Will be stalking you !
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