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Tracking weight over 12IMs / 7years: observations and insights from this chart?

This time every year, the office starts to clear out and I get some time to look at data over the past season.   I'd be interested to hear any insights, observations and recommendations based on the chart below.   I was originally a little embarrassed to put this out there, but now that it's 7 years, as Popeye said, "I am what I am."

Notes:   

  • Red circles are Ironman races
  • Trend line is the right direction, but is 'tipped' by a leaner 2017 OS / year
  • But a leaner 2017 OS / year didn't result in improved race outcomes.  I hoped this would have directly translated to run improvements marked by higher VDOT and faster IM Marathons, in particular.  
  • I'm not sure if I'm an average guy who gets skinny for races, or a skinny guy who falls apart in the winter. 
Tagged:

Comments

  • You are either gaining way too much in the non-race season and need to limit the gains to 10 pounds area of 5% or you are losing too much during the build to IM.  The first step is identifying the problem; now go fix it.
  • So you’re saying a 30lb delta is a lot?  
  • @Dave Tallo  Do you know what % BF each of these weights were? Are you more muscular in the lower body? I ask because if you are losing a disproportionate amount of muscle in the lower body it could affect power. The graph appears to say you have gained 15 pounds since September. 

    Questions:
    * Do you lose the weight leading into the race because of volume of training?
    * Do you get sick with the weight loss before OR after racing?
    * Are you massively hungry with IM peak training?

    I bet your body type is that you loose weight if you don't keep up on Carbohydrates. 



  • edited December 21, 2017 8:59PM

    @Sheila Leard,

    I didn't track bf%.  But my scale measures it, and anecdotally, outseason 13%, inseason, >10% ( don't know how well those guesses would actually withstand the math, though).  

    Yes, I'm leggy.  And have a slight frame.  Not quite a Tyrannosaurus Rex ... closer to an ectomorph with quads and a butt. 

    Yes, the weight drops with the increased volume of training.  but my FTP would plot to the inverse: it's at its lowest during OS and builds to plateau around race time.     

    No, not massively hungry during Peak IM training. Not any more hungry than other times of the year.  But CHO is at its greatest, both % and total intake. 

    And I like my carbohydrates. As I mentioned, I got better at getting the periodization of my macronutrients aligned  with the periodization of training during 2017 (where better = eating to support activity).  


       

  • Dave,

    It looks like you losing/gaining large amounts still right before and after races.  Given there is 3 months on the x axis it's hard to tell exactly how much but it seems like big amounts during an IM 12 weeks.  When I first looked at it I almost thought of a boxer trying to make his weight class. I know I don't perform well outside the OS losing more than 1lb-2 a week. When I'm at the upper lever the log stuff suffers, particularly the rides for me.

    What does the 12 weeks of IM and final 4 weeks look like in terms of weight loss?  There appears to be a larger delta prior to the IM's in 2012, 2013, 2015 and 2016 but again you have significant drops in the 3 months coming in to all your races.  You also have some huge spikes after races even when doing doubles.  For me even after and IM year when I've lost 30 or so lbs I have to work very hard to gain anywhere near this amount.  This in not a slight but an observation that perhaps you are racing too light and once you start eating after a race you gain weight and fast. 

    I'm thinking you might be coming in trying to squeeze out the weight loss while it would be nice if this could be accomplished in the OS.  Of course this is the 225lb IM guy telling the sub 150 guy to get his ducks in a row so I see the hypocrisy of my statement.

    Finally after the September 2016 IM to 2017 there seems to be a trend upwards. The delta is smaller 150-163 outside the last spike to 170 but there a lot of volatility with your weight. 


  • Normal...Mine looks similar...Your average swing(not extremes) is around 20lbs and mine is around 10lbs.... Not healthy to go up and down , but then its probably not healthy to stay at the lows or highs, somewhere in the middle would probably be the healthiest, but that would require moderation, and then what kind of a triathlete would you be? Ever notice that the lines on the graph going up , do so at a much faster time frame , than the lines on the graph going down? :-)

    Kudos for a leaner overall 2017, bummer it did not translate into those faster run times, it could be a one off, things to consider , overall loss of muscle over that time frame, I know I have lost muscle (mostly upper body) during my triathlon life (been doing strength and plan to continue) , and as you track that graph from left to right you are getting older....
  • Kudos for the courage to post this and expose yourself to our nit-picking. I'd add a few thoughts:
    • Consistency is a bedrock principle in your training, I know. "90% of success in life is just showing up". You make a strong effort to maintain focused work throughout the year, to get proper sleep, etc. It seems, though, that you don't apply that thinking to your body comp (and your diet?)
    • Metabolic stress...I wonder what the impact is over the course of a season on your body having to shed mass while getting fitter? Are you making it harder for yourself by having to lose those pounds?
    • Rob may be onto something...your race day weight (hi 140s) is in the same range as mine has been over the decades, yet you are significantly taller (6-8 cm?) and have larger legs. Combine that with Tim's observation that his fluctuations are more like 10#, and it very well could be that your swings are too wide on both ends.
    • Also, note that your lowest weight in 2016 coincides with a period when you were struggling to repeat previous performances, and that continued into 2017.
    I believe that you would benefit from taking a short sabbatical from IM focus, while honing your strength and speed in Olympic distance races, with maybe a 70.3 thrown in to keep you motivated to do 3-4 hour rides and 2 hour runs in training. During that time, concentrate on getting your weight to just about 70 kilos, and keeping it there. Then, when it comes time to do your next IM, allow your training to dictate what your race weight will be - it might drop 1-2 kilos to race day, but it should be your body's decision, not yours.

    Not that I think it should apply to others, but I'll take the opportunity to make a few notes on my weight over the decades. I weigh pretty much what I did in my late 20's (66-68kg), when I was skiing every day. My weight has not changed much since then; I did get up to 72 kg at one point, but felt I was starting to balloon, so put an end to it. There were two points, @ age 48 and 61, when I lost substantial weight that I never completely gained back, first by bicycling across the USA, and then by spending 10 days in an ICU. I got in the habit of weighing myself every morning, adding % BF and % body water to my metrics in the mid-00's. I do not track those #s in a record or diary, rather rely on daily micro changes to my fuel, fluid and training strategy to maintain homeostasis. The interplay among those three #s is interesting - on a day-to-day basis, higher BF% usually goes along with lower body water and overall weight. So if my weight is down, my BF% is up, and my water is low, I know I am dehydrated, and need to up my fluids, and not worry so much about my calories.
  • @Al Truscott
    Interesting observations regarding the relationship between hydration and percentage body fat. I assume you use a scale that passes a current through your body to measure body fat and hydration? If so, when you are dehydrated, your resistance goes up, so "it looks like your body fat has gone up", but that may just be the dehydration. Just a thought.
  • @Al Truscott
    Interesting observations regarding the relationship between hydration and percentage body fat. I assume you use a scale that passes a current through your body to measure body fat and hydration? If so, when you are dehydrated, your resistance goes up, so "it looks like your body fat has gone up", but that may just be the dehydration. Just a thought.
    Prescisely...eg, yesterday AM, I was 6,3/58%, today 6.8/57.6
  • Thanks a lot for the thought-proving responses.  I'm chewing on these, and also pondering why I want to respond the way I want to respond - I find myself starting a 'in defence of weight swings" reply every few hours, and then coming to my senses!

    Gonna keep reading and re-reading these and will give the replies the objective thought they deserve.  thanks for the input so far. 
  • Regarding weight swings ... I believe a swing is okay for competitive athletes. You cannot be elite without being incredibly lean; and it's way too difficult (and risky) to maintain year round.  Don't worry about gaining a few pounds.  Besides, it's cold up where you live.  Curious to know if there's ever been a study of the physiological effects of these swings.  Could they somehow be harming the body?

    Based on the above data, I don't see a strong correlation between race weight and race performance.  But more data points could help the analysis.  It would be interesting to see the graph with a new metric on the right side that plots your IM times.

    My hunch is that for those at the pointy end, race-day weight becomes much less of a single influencing factor.

    I also don't see a strong correlation between yearly weight variance and race performance.  For you, the trend of annual weight swings has tracked downward so that's got to be good.  In looking at obstri.com, you had a great year in 2012; that was your lowest weight but largest weight swing.

    For me this raises two questions: 1) what are your optimal weight ranges for 2018; and 2) what other factors could be influencing your ability to run faster
  • @Dave Tallo, concur w @PaulCurtin in that I would like to see race time overlay, but also which IM and your age at each one.  I.e., you need to normalize the performances for course profile, weather and age to really understand how weight is impacting your times.  Meanwhile, I have to agree that you have a huge weight swing.  Mine runs about 15 lbs and I thought that was too much.  I have one week after an IM to enjoy eating and if I don't get it under control by then I will start climbing fast.  It's just too hard to get off so I'm becoming more disciplined as I get older.
  • I never did collect all the data you have done, but I usually get really low weight during the 5 weeks pre race - usually around 139 pounds. The following weeks I get back to 155-160 pounds.

    One easy way to drop weight for me is to totally cut wines, chocolate and diary products.

    Something I found is that I recovered easier when I am light compare to the days where I was a heavier racer.
  • @Francis Picard - even that would be a huge range for me.  I weighed 150.2 this morning and hope to race IM Norway at 145 ... no easy task for me to lose 5 lbs.

  • edited January 1, 2018 11:01PM
    @ All ... thanks.    So I guess I'm EN's Jan Ullrich.  Separating us are a German heritage, about 190 watts of FTP, and a system full of dope.  What binds us are we like to show up to the season "beautifully marbled."    Sure, his favourite things were schnitzel and noodles, and mine, well, every other food under the sun.  

    Anyhow, I really appreciate the thoughts and insights shared above.    I took a number of false starts over the last few weeks in responding, only because I couldn't write a post without trying to defend the swings that the chart reveals.    To give a sense of where my head has been over these years, it's basically to take a race-focussed approach to actual weight, and be guided by (1) It's preferable to race light, but it really doesn't matter that much how you train, and (2) as long as it's not too stressful, just let the body do what it's telling you to do in terms of weight management the rest of the year.    

    Anyhow, I put these responses out only for continued dialogue, and not as defences of these data.  Remember ... I was the one who posted it in the first place.  

    @Robert Sabo ... "First step is admitting it's a problem."   I agree, conditionally.  What if it's not a problem?   iow, although the sawtooth chart and big SD aren't as pretty as a straight line, who's to say what's optimal?   I think the 10% variation has been a figure that ????? wrote about in Racing Weight, but is this a number that's backed with an actual physiological rationale, or is it just what he observes from athletes?   

    @Gordon Cherwoniak "What does the 12 weeks of IM and final 4 weeks look like in terms of weight loss?"   This, for me, is where the real dynamic happens.   From memory, the greatest drop comes from the volume incurred in weeks 1-8, and the final 5 usually comes in the last 4 weeks.   This happens pretty naturally via a large calorie deficit, driven particularly by the combination of Long Run Thursday, Big Bike Sat and ABP Sun.    I work very hard to manage nutrition for recovery (timing CHO/PRO/cal intake following a session) on those days, but I'm not stringent about replacing the outright caloric expenditure.     

    @Tim Cronk: "Normal...Mine looks similar...Your average swing(not extremes) is around 20lbs and mine is around 10lbs.... Not healthy to go up and down , but then its probably not healthy to stay at the lows or highs, somewhere in the middle would probably be the healthiest"      I stopped reading at "normal."   Kidding!     Let me probe (again, not debate )   this a bit ... what's the basis for "not healthy going up and down?"    Are you saying that the kcal excess or deficits that would drive weight one way or another are creating some kind of undue strain on the body?    I'm asking because I honestly don't know, but I could understand that it might be playing some kind of havoc with blood sugar, liver activity, etc etc.      Maybe @Sheila Leard could also answer that question.                 

    @Al Truscott ... "Consistency is a bedrock principle in your training, I know. "90% of success in life is just showing up". You make a strong effort to maintain focused work throughout the year, to get proper sleep, etc. It seems, though, that you don't apply that thinking to your body comp (and your diet?)".        You're on to something here.   For me, body comp and diet are my price of admission to the consistency along other dimensions.    I can sustain and persevere through greater loads over long periods, but diet is a major reward to get through these, and while I can keep great diet over a good length of time, eventually I have to say "ok ... time to regenerate" and just let it go.     Again, a defensive comment coming up ... but in my mind, in real time, I see the weight gain in coming from the "recovery" (or the forgoing of discipline) that I am rolling when It's On.      

    "Metabolic stress...I wonder what the impact is over the course of a season on your body having to shed mass while getting fitter? Are you making it harder for yourself by having to lose those pounds?"    Good question.  Probably the same think Tim is getting in in the para ^above^.  

    "I believe that you would benefit from taking a short sabbatical from IM focus, while honing your strength and speed in Olympic distance races ...  concentrate on getting your weight to just about 70 kilos, and keeping it there."    I hear you.  Thing that keeps me from that (and I recognize the fallacy therein) is that I don't achieve in shorter distances, and I'm pretty good in IM ... and I have a huge mind block in doing something that I'm not very good at.    Short-term thinking, I know.     

    @Paul Curtin  "Besides, it's cold up where you live.  Curious to know if there's ever been a study of the physiological effects of these swings.  Could they somehow be harming the body?"     You're definitely on to something here.  It's cold, it's dark, I experience massive seasonal affective disorder in the "upswing" winters, and take in food for mental as well as physical insulation.      

    "Based on the above data, I don't see a strong correlation between race weight and race performance.  But more data points could help the analysis.  It would be interesting to see the graph with a new metric on the right side that plots your IM times."

    Ask and ye shall receive.    I have made a subjective version of the chart, giving a grade to actual performances.     This recognizes that there are just way too many moving parts to give objective scores to a certain point, but you could think of the grade as a pretty good composite of what I remember my outright VDOT, power curve and FTP, overall fitness, and relative race performance were at the time.   Of particular note are the 'worst' grades track to the lowest weight variability.  

         


     
    @ "Paul Hough" see above.  I would love to normalize the performances, but the self-assessment is as good as it will get.    The ones that are probably the beset 'apples to apples' comparisons are Kona in Octobers '12, '13, '14, and '16.    

    And I hear you on the age thing.  

    @Francis Picard  "One easy way to drop weight for me is to totally cut wines, chocolate and diary products."     Is that elimination even possible in Montreal?    

    "Something I found is that I recovered easier when I am light compare to the days where I was a heavier racer."     This is a really really good point.    Add onto that Heat Affect (I made that term up), where the bigger I am, the greater the impairment on my ability to work in either very hot conditions (i.e. on a treadmill, or in AZ after a Canadian winter), or very cold conditions.    simply, I see big climate-driven HR and RPE differences when I'm bigger.      


    Again, thanks all for the valuable input.    Lots to think about here, in both short term and long term development.     AND YOU'RE FRIGGIN' KILLING ME ... I'm off to Southeast Asia next week where (1) everything is delicious, and (2) I will travel 2000 kms if someone tells me about a yummy dish I should try.   

     
  •  @Tim Cronk: "Normal...Mine looks similar...Your average swing(not extremes) is around 20lbs and mine is around 10lbs.... Not healthy to go up and down , but then its probably not healthy to stay at the lows or highs, somewhere in the middle would probably be the healthiest"      I stopped reading at "normal."   Kidding!     Let me probe (again, not debate )   this a bit ... what's the basis for "not healthy going up and down?"    Are you saying that the kcal excess or deficits that would drive weight one way or another are creating some kind of undue strain on the body?    I'm asking because I honestly don't know, but I could understand that it might be playing some kind of havoc with blood sugar, liver activity, etc etc.      Maybe @Sheila Leard could also answer that question.                

    @Dave Tallo
    If I had only looked at your graph and not read your back ground comments the first thing I would do is rule out for this athlete:
    • Disordered eating - is this purposeful weight loss?
    • History of injuries - is athlete recovering?
    • Thyroid dysfunction - are carbs too low?
    • Over-training syndrome - is athlete sleeping, moody
    • Performance - is athlete satisfied with results?
    It appears you are not affected by any of  the above concerns. (I hope).  There are many athletes that fall into the paradox of weight gain when endurance training increases. In your case I believe it comes down to ENERGY FLUX. When your training volume increases your metabolic rate goes up - measured as EPOC Exercise Post Oxygen Consumption.  This higher than typical energy flux requires more calories. You intuitively consume more carbs which keeps you in a high energy flux. If you did not consume enough calories to support your volume or intensity of exercise you would be in low energy flux ... a poor place for athletes to put themselves. Energy flux is one of the reasons why it is so hard to determine a calorie level for athletes. 

    Does this put undue strain on the body? In your case I honestly think it is as simple as when energy demands are decreased from less training your body naturally cycles back up. Bio-markers of inflammation will be reduced over time with less training. The following can stay elevated for three weeks or longer.
    Plasma creatine phosphokinase (CPK)
    Aspartate aminotransferase (AST)
    Alanine aminotransferase (ALT)
    High-sensitivity C-reactive protein (Hs-CRP)
    Homocysteine
    Insulin

    If these stay elevated it may not have anything to do with weight fluctuations but more with your season road-map. Your Ectomorph body type, hormones and genes plays into this. 

    Safe travels. Eat well and hydrate!
  • For me, body comp and diet are my price of admission to the consistency along other dimensions.    I can sustain and persevere through greater loads over long periods, but diet is a major reward to get through these, and while I can keep great diet over a good length of time, eventually I have to say "ok ... time to regenerate" and just let it go.     Again, a defensive comment coming up ... but in my mind, in real time, I see the weight gain in coming from the "recovery" (or the forgoing of discipline) that I am rolling when It's On.      

    @Dave Tallo it almost seems as though I could have written this.  When I'm in "On" mode, I am very careful about training/recovery/inflammation AND Eating Clean.  Almost to the point of obsessive on all of those.  But I always give myself a light at the end of the tunnel and my discipline goes to hell on all fronts as my reward to turn those switches back "Off".  Like @Tim Cronk mentioned about most of us crazies, my personal settings don't even have a "medium" or "moderation" button...   Only 0 or 11 for me.   My weight swings are even bigger than yours, but mine don't have a downtrend.  My low-to-high range is more like ~35lbs (but from a higher baseline, so my percentages are likely a tad lower).  I'm pretty sure my "Ideal Normal Weight" is in the ~190-200lb window.  I generally get to ~178lbs right before a race and it's obvious by all observers that I'm ~10-15 lbs too "skinny" by normal standards, but I don't try to get to a particular weight number, that's just where I end up by eating super clean (with massive amounts of calories) during an IM training cycle.   I get from "Race Weight" to ~210lbs VERY QUICKLY, much quicker than you and half the time overshoot that.  And when I weigh ~210-215lbs, my neck is a bit fat, I have small love handles and I don't feel nearly as good.   I'm still skinnier at 215lbs than ~95% of 42 yr old American Men, but that's not saying much.   I have been doing a lot of glute/hammie/core work and can feel my rear chain strengthening.  I currently weigh ~200lbs, so I'm right at the upper end of what I perceive to be where my normal range "should" be.  However, I think I have put on some glute and hammy muscle because they feel bigger and I know they are stronger and my pants fit like and my visual fat levels look like they normally do when I'm closer to ~190lbs.  So It's going to be very mentally hard for me to not stare at the bigger number if this stays true throughout my upcoming training cycle.   

    I have more upper body muscle mass than most Triathletes (as a former wrestler).  And both of my parents are ~50+ lbs overweight. I'm also absolutely a life long sugar addict. So I know without question that I am a fat kid who gets skinny to race, but the second I'm not training to win something, my fat kid brain takes over and it does damage VERY quickly...   (The @tim cronk and @Al Truscott 's of the triathlon world will never fully understand this plight of the fat kid).

    That's a lot of words to basically say, I have no idea what is too heavy or too light for you from a race weight perspective.  Nor do I know what is too big of a range for you. I do know that you'll know it when you're too heavy.  And you can probably race ~5-10 lbs lighter than where normal people think you are too skinny...   But the number on the scale is just a number.  If you add (or lose) muscle this number will be different.  And that is likely true as we age that muscle deteriorates.  But most non-Endurance crazies simply gain a few pounds every year of their life if they don't actively try to control it.  I'm determined to avoid that and the only way I know how is to set big annual goals and use that as motivation to fight my upward trend.

  • I needed time to read this, as I have been woefully under participating in the forums. This is a Great thread. It makes me realize that I need to start logging my weight more diligently. Part of why I don't is because of what others will see. I go through the same swings as you. 

    Cutting it down, I know that performance is a result of math, and body comp, within reason, is an input to that math. I know what power I have in watts, I know what the guys who win their AG look like on race day, I know that to look like that, I would weigh 7-10 lbs lighter than what I showed up at LP at this year. If I lose those last lbs, I am at 4.3-4.5 w/kg, I know that I can't expect a 3-5% wattage gain this year as I close in on 53 years, that number and ability to improve it will intersect. 

    What at I am trying to say is I know what the right lean weight is for me to race so have a horrible "relationship" with food. I don't go off the wagon eating burgers, steaks, etc. I do have some in the November to February time frame. That said, I know I literally feel best when I weigh under 155. Haven't been on a scale since before xmas, but guessing I binged up to 157-161 in the last 2 weeks. Last year I topped out at 168. LP was 147. 

    My goal this year is to "reset" my range, instead of trading in a typical 150 a 168 range, I want to get to a 140-152 range. So, I a man going to start pushing now, I know he my body reacts to the things I do, I know it's tougher I need the OS, but I also think part of this is very basic. We are an animal, no different than any other out there. How were we wired to eat for millions of years before commercialism and food factories existed? A great line from time that I observed him say to someone was "clearly you eat for sustenance." I have to change my relationship with food if that is going to happen. 

    When my father died of heart disease 20 years ago, for a few months, I literally looked at everything I put in my mouth and asked what this does for me. Time t get back on that wagon! Goal is to show up at Mallorca in April at my IMLP 17 weight. That said, my biggest diffiiculty is that's I have barely run since IMKY due to a hip issue that now seems to be both subsiding and having been cleared by doc. Very hard to maintain or lose weight without runnning, for me. 

    2ndary goal is to not gain as much next year as I already have this year. If I am successful in getting back on it, I will have made this year's high, 7lbs lower than last year, which is the range I am trying to reset. 
  •  ... what's the basis for "not healthy going up and down?"    Are you saying that the kcal excess or deficits that would drive weight one way or another are creating some kind of undue strain on the body?    I'm asking because I honestly don't know, but I could understand that it might be playing some kind of havoc with blood sugar, liver activity, etc etc.

    Maybe not so much the going up and down but the speed at which we accomplish these and of course the extreme ends of the range... Losing weight or gaining weight TOO FAST has to put an undue strain on the body (STRESS) since you are either eating too few calories or too many calories... I will assume your bottom and top ranges to be similar to mine in how you feel... I feel great at race weight (bottom of my graph) but it requires a lot of discipline to get there and to stay there, my concern at race weight for too long would be muscle/bone loss and nutritional deficiencies...I feel horrible at the top of my graph, I get there by eating too junk and too much good stuff, my concern here is potential health problems for that weight, performance, and just the continuation with bad habits ... 


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