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NYT Article: Nike Vaporfly 4% Really is 4% Faster

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/07/18/upshot/nike-vaporfly-shoe-strava.html

Very interesting article, co-authored by a statistician

For an Ironman marathon would anyone really get 4% ... although even 1% is quite meaningful
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Comments

  • I read this last night. Very impressive analysis based on a deep dive into Big Data from Strava. I'm willing to believe it based on my own personal experience, not with Vaporflys, but what happened to my IM marathon times 12 years ago. During taper week before a race in 2006, I brought my training shoes (which I had also been using for IMs) - Asics GT 2000 series, real boats - and some racing flats which were about 4-56 os lighter per shoe. I recorded a  30-40 sec/mile difference between the two over the same sections of the course. I raced in the flats, and got an IM PR, on a very warm HI day. But the more remarkable thing was what happened over subsequent races. I was routinely doing IM CdA annually @ the time, and my run time dropped there by 20 minutes. So I am very willing to believe that shoes can make a substantial difference in an IM marathon.

    The Wow factor here, is they compared the Vaporfly to all kinds of shoes, including racing flats. No matter how light the other shoes, the Vporflys were faster. And their chart seems roughly stratified by shoe weight...
  • I have a REALLY fast buddy who's racing IM Lake Placid this weekend.  He's a bubble KQ guy in M30-35.  He bought them and said they are REAL.  To the point that he begged me to buy a pair to race IMWis in.  Didn't take much arm twisting...   I paid $330 for a pair and am going to see how they are.  (They arrived at my house, but I haven't even tried them on yet...)

    https://stockx.com/nike-zoom-vaporfly-4-bright-crimson

    Seems crazy to spend that much $$ for a 100 mile shoe...   But I spent more than that on a Ceramic Speed Oversized Pulley System for my bike that "in theory" will save me way less than a few minutes on my bike split...

     
  • Love that color John, it matches the EN kit.  I'd spend $330 on them.  I better get shopping now if I want to use them in October
  • @John Withrow Don't want to derail the thread, but had a question about "But I spent more than that on a Ceramic Speed Oversized Pulley System for my bike that "in theory" will save me way less than a few minutes on my bike split...".
    PM me if you don't want to pollute the thread, but I was interested in your evidence for the purchase (because I know you are a data driven guy)? And, how have you found them (feel, ease to use etc)?
  • We may be data-driven triathletes, but we're still prone to the occasional impulse purchase based on spurious data from marketeers  :)
  • I was thinking the exact same thing @ Peter so hopefully @John will reply – always been interested in the oversized pulleys – anything for a few watts!!

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    Peter Greagg commented on NYT Article: Nike Vaporfly 4% Really is 4% Faster

    @John Withrow Don't want to derail the thread, but had a question about "But I spent more than that on a Ceramic Speed Oversized Pulley System for my bike that "in theory" will save me way less than a few minutes on my bike split...".
    PM me if you don't want to pollute the thread, but I was interested in your evidence for the purchase (because I know you are a data driven guy)? And, how have you found them (feel, ease to use etc)?
  • @Peter Greagg @dcballin05 Your timing is impeccable, and I think it was a bit more than an accidental slip when I mentioned my OPWS yesterday. First a little background...   I have an undergrad in Mechanical Engineering and a Master's in Bioengineering (then I got an MBA).  So I'm a super nerd who's particularly interested in finding any mechanical or biomechanical advantage. As my main "hobby", I have also allocated a lot of disposable income towards triathlon.  So I am willing to spend much more $$$ than most people if I think something will make me faster, but I'm not willing to just throw money at it if I don't think it will.   So I still ride a ~6.5 yr old bike because I'm not convinced that spending $$$ on a new bike will actually be any faster than my "Vintage" Cervelo P5...  But this past winter it was LONG overdue for an overhaul so instead of buying a new bike, I had my headset totally rebuilt (bearings were trashed), got a new Bottom Bracket (so I upgraded to ceramic bearings) and my bearings in my jockey wheel needed replaced, so I bought @Scott Dinhofer 's used Ceramic Speed OPWS (since he switched from 10spd to 11spd last yr and it no longer worked for him).

    Now to your questions... The data seems pretty strong (If you believe that NYT article or anyone's n=1 who has run in them) that IF you spend ~$250-350 on these Vaporfly 4%, THEN you will be ~4-8 minutes faster in a stand-alone marathon (who knows about an IM...).   Similarly, IF you spend ~$100-300 on an Aero Helmet, you WILL be faster over 112 miles of an IM bike leg vs not wearing one.  Same for Race Wheels, disc cover, race tires, latex tubes, tight fitting clothes, etc. etc. etc...   

    I am NOT convinced that spending $500 for a Ceramic Speed OPWS will actually make you any faster.  It "might"...   But I'm not convinced...   It DEFINITELY looks cool, and that is worth something (but not $500 something to me).   Just yesterday I took my bike to my LBS to have my OPWS removed and my stock D/A one put back on.  It's pretty well known that with bigger wheels and a longer leverage arm that there are more stresses in the OPWS vs standard 11t wheels, and that they also don't shift as cleanly.  I also use Osymetric Chainrings (until yesterday when I switched to less aggressive Oval Q-rings), so my bike always kinda shifted like crap anyways and have always had some chain slap.   I think in my Aspen camp this combination of hard shifts and chain slaps caused my chain to get stuck between the bottom pulley and the OPWS guide cage, breaking a piece of it off (not sure which of my chain drops this happened on).   I've ridden with it like that for a month or so afterwards with increasing frequency of chain drops each ride and finally gave up after a disastrous ride on Wednesday (and now I also have a bent deraileur hanger).  I don't think my situation is completely unique because a couple of months ago, @JeremyBehler had his Ceramic Speed OPWS literally break in half mid-ride, which could cause other damage to your bike, rip off the deraileur, mess up your wheels, and/or cause a crash... At a minimum it ruins a good training day or worse ruins a whole race.

    So I spent the last couple days going deep down the rabbit holes of learning a LOT more about bearings and the OPWS.  I think the bigger radius does cause fractionally less kinking in the chain, but from a VERY LOW starting point.  The ceramic bearings also cause slightly less friction, also from a very low starting point since there is very little friction here to begin with.  There is even less drag if you use the lower tension settings which makes the chain slap even worse for my setup.   So I'm still going through the warranty process with Dinhofer's help.  If they warranty the system, I will probably put it back on, but I might just sell it.   In the meantime, I'm going to buy some Kogel ceramic 11t pulley wheels (~$100) and install them myself in my stock D/A pulley wheel system.   IF the OPWS saves me more than 1 min in an IM bike, I'd be surprised.  IF it causes my chain to drop a single time, I give up more than that...  Not worth it for me to race with it unless I can get it back in time and test it enough to be confident before my race.   But it sure as hell looks cool!
      

  • I note my Kinvaras are on the list around 1% - meaning that I probably wont change my shoes.
  • @John Withrow
    Thanks John. Message received and understood. I am using an 11t so will probably look at Kogel ceramic pulley wheels.
    My TT bike is a three year old Shiv with ceramic bearings front wheel (HED 3), bottom bracket and a 24 mm Wheelbuilder rear.
  • That's a great read...I have a pair of the 4% I only use for racing; and my one off definitely has me believing they are faster than any other shoe I own.

  • Interesting is that Hoka is coming out with a carbon plate shoe. Making me feel stupid for hoarding a couple pairs of 4% in the last release.


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