Rory Gumina Erie Marathon Race Plan
My only previous stand-alone marathon was 7 yrs ago (4:25 finish). After having done IMMT in 2017, and IMLP in 2018, I'd like to get a new baseline for the marathon ... that's my goal at Erie (9/9/2018) ... and I'm planning to use Power vs Pace to execute the race.
I've been running with Stryd for over a year, and during this summer I've had 11 runs of 10 miles or more. I've analyzed the data for those runs.
Aggregate Finish data (table below)
Individual Lap (1 mile each) data summary
(Unfortunately for 2 of the runs, shaded above, 920xt stopped receiving Power data from Stryd ... only the Laps (miles) with power were included in the summaries below)
Laps w/avg. power 215-225 watts: avg. HR 114 … avg. Cadence 168 spm … avg. pace 9:25
Laps w/avg. power 225-230 watts: avg. HR 120 … avg. Cadence 171 spm … avg. pace 9:05
Laps w/avg. power 230-235 watts: avg. HR 121 … avg. Cadence 173 spm … avg. pace 8:54
Laps w/avg. power 236+ watts: avg. HR 130 … avg. Cadence 178 spm … avg. pace 8:20
Given this data, and after discussion with Coach P, my current Race Plan is below ... as you review, note that from my IMLP report I received consistent feedback from the Team regarding my tendency to go out too hard ... would like not to do that here! 👍️
Thanks for any & all comments offered!
Run: Smooth, increasing effort … Focus on Power (monitor HR, and SPM)
0-6 miles: 215-225 watts ... targeting low-end power to keep from going out too fast
6-12 miles: 225-230 watts ... building to critical power (230 watts)
13-20 miles: 230-235 watts ... push above CP
20-Finish: 236+ watts ... the idea here is to have enough gas in the tank to push as hard as I can to the Finish
Comments
Have you done any of those long runs with a push over the final 3-4 miles? Your power generation during that time might give you an indication of your limits as you attempt to increase effort towards the end.
I have no long-distance experience yet with Stryd - maximum races have been Oly 10Ks. But I notice a very close correlation between pace and power (when the elevation is flattened out). So a significant increase in power in the last half would imply to me a significant negative split.
I'm just speculating here, not advising, so I'll be very interested in seeing what transpires. My suspicion is that RPE will gradually increase over the 26.2 miles, but the power will remain relatively constant in a well-run marathon.
Looks good. Definitely start slow and be patient! Starting slow can be psychologically challenging but ALL the statistics for marathons show that slow starts are the most successful.
The power ranges look good. When you get to the last 1 1/2 you should have a good idea of how much you have left. During a race my HR is typically a little higher than my normal runs so I don't let that bother me. Just know what's too high for you early on.
What are you eating? And drinking? I took a gel every 30-40 minutes and carried an 8 Oz handheld. I like taking sips as I run.
If you like running with music I would do that as well. I set my volume so I can still hear and talk to others as I run. Music helps pass the time for me.
Have fun during the race! Im sure you'll do well.
@Al Truscott ... THX! ... yes several of the EN Marathon wkos had z3/z4 miles at the end ... I was mostly able to execute as written, though the 20-miler called for 8 min miles for miles 17 & 19 and I could only achieve 8:15's.
Below is simple excel regression using Power to Predict pace based on my Long Run Lap Data. Very good fit (92% R-sq) ... it tells me that my Stryd Power data is very closely correlated with my Pace ... which supports your hypothesis.
Unfortunately haven't explored any multivariate analysis yet, because including Lap # and Elevation would prob be wicked interesting ... and would help me better predict how 230 watts at Mile 20 (eg. fatigued) would relate to Pace.
@Tim Sullivan ... thanks for your comments! ... I realized I completely neglected to include my nutrition & hydration plans (which I've been using for all August long runs ... but with hydration belt):
Nutrition: Pre-Race same as IM ... Coffee, Crank e-Fuel drink, Clif bar, Clif caff. gel ... during race will rely on Clif caff. gels every 4-5 miles just prior to AS and will then "wash it down" with on-course hydration Gu Brew
Hydration: 100% on-course (no hydration belt or handheld) ... sip every mile ... base salt every 2 miles
Although music is MUST for my indoor wkos, never use it for outdoor.
@Tim Sullivan and @Al Truscott ... I have a pacing strategy question for you ... I wouldn't mind running with a pace group, but not sure which one to start with?
I know from your RR Tim that your group convinced the Pacer to start slowly so I may try that ... but otherwise not sure.
My initial pace wants to be 9:25 ish ... equivalent to 4:05 to 4:10 finish ... trying to decide if I should start there (would incent "slow" and "patient" for sure), and then leave the group as my Plan describes ... what do you guys think?
tagging @Gordon Cherwoniak on this as well ... given his terrific IMLP insights!
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Sorry for yet a 3rd post when I hit the edit button the box is blank
Here's the google docs sheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1CipFfJo1NxusaxirPziM4gAoAjnJ7UBhcDlkCs_-Z6A/edit?usp=sharing
Finally I suspected that Tim's big negative split may mean he left a little time on the table early on. Like anything pacing for best race takes a number of races. I did not have time to go through this but in a quick search I found this analysis which maybe good. Section 3.3 looks at distribution of best performances for runners with + and - splits, covering 12K+ athletes. Tim's 5'+ is an outlier and your 7'+ is really out there.
http://fellrnr.com/wiki/Negative_Splits
@Rory Gumina - Sounds like you're ready to crush your marathon and BQ! I know zero about running with power but as already mentioned above, starting slightly slower and then building through mile 20 with a final 10K push is a successful execution plan. Yes, you should start with the slower pace group just to make sure you don't get caught up in the moment with a Z5 start.
What is your pre-race warm up? I always do a warm up, 10-12 min easy run with 3-4 30" strides at race pace. A proper warm up will allow you to hit race paces at the start without a HR spike.
Do you have a plan B for high temps/humidity?
Also, consider taking a gel 15-20 min before race start.
Good luck and enjoy the race.
One clarification, my Stryd Critical Power is 283, my Target Power is 230 (which I mistakenly referred to as CP in my Plan)
@Gordon Cherwoniak first, HUGE thanks for the posts!
Thanks again for all your "cyphering" Gordon!
@Derrek Sanks yeah, I would like to give this marathon hell for sure!
Turns out my pace group choices are 4hrs (9:10 pace ... still too fast to start) and then jumps to 4:15 (9:44 pace ... slow-ish but if it keeps me from Z5 at start then prob. the place to be)
WU plan: Parking is ~1 mile from start so was considering that for warm-up ... and will incl. strides ... will add as necessary based on how i feel that morning
Plan B is to reduce Power to maintain HR in my historical ranges (in Plan) ... given our hot, humid summer here many/most of my long runs have been good practice in case that's what Erie offers ... right now f'cast looks like hi 60's and rain
Good suggestion re: gel 15-20 min prior! ... Thanks for all your input! ... and mojo!
@Rory Gumina One final though I had lying in bed last night was about your average power. Not sure there's anything useful in this give you are running with fatigue. You noted 232 for the race for 26.2 first 13 225 and 2nd 13 239.
I was going to ask for those numbers and then compare them to you CP and the average power you held on those runs. Your average power for the 2 18milers and one 20 miler were 223, 219 and 220. This puts your race 9-12 watts above any long training run. I'm not sure exactly what to say about this or how running on rested legs will feel.
I'd be interested to know the average power of those two long runs that you have data for after the 13 mile mark. Just trying to slice the data another was to see if there is anything uncovered.
Finally as you posted the regression line and talked multivariate analysis I'm sure you are more than qualified to assess that final research link. I hate to do that without going through the info more thoroughly but I just don't have time this week.
Anyway have a great race. I'll be looking forward to the race report.
@Rory Gumina I started with a pace group I expected to leave by mile 6. I hung around a little bit longer because they were slightly ahead of schedule. They slowed down some and I decided it was time to go on my own. I told them what I was going to do as we were running as it was a small group. The pace group I started with (3:30) was 10 minutes slower than I thought was my optimistic time of 3:20. Turns out I had more in the tank than that. When I left them I would have been happy with a 3:20-3:25 even though I finished much faster.
you will probably need to leave that pace group much faster than I did as my initial pace group was the time I needed to qualify for Boston. The other option is to start with the 4hr pace group and see what your numbers are. If too hard just drop back. If not you could stay there. Try to get that 4hr group to go out a little slower.
I would not stay with any pace group if they are running slower than your plan calls for
Good thought @Gordon Cherwoniak ... unfortunately only 2 runs fit the criteria (> 13 miles, without Power malfunction). One of those was the 20-miler which was actually an EN workout that had specified "hard" & easier intervals so not indicative.
That single run with useful data was an 18-miler on 6/28 with: 221 avg watts for miles 1-13 and 231 avg watts for miles 14-18. My new/adjusted plan has 226 (1st 13) and 235 (2nd 13) ... seems reasonable, especially given rested legs and flat course.
Adj. plan time splits are now: 1:58:58 and 1:54:34 ... 4:24 neg. split ... more reasonable than prior ... still aggressive, but my PR for Half Mary is 1:42:07 so hoping I can suffer my way through ... we'll see.
Thx for all your input!!!
Thx @Tim Sullivan ! ... yeah I think I'll start with the 4hr group, monitor Pwr & HR and back off if necessary ... till going alone. Will suggest we start a little slower ... saw in your RR that you were able to do that.
As you and others have mentioned, Patience will be key ... not normally a strength, but gotta learn ... especially for future IM's.
Thx Tim!