JB's Louisville Race Plan
So, Survive! Is that enough? LOL. Lets be clear, this is going to be a train wreck and its gonna hurt more than usual. I am not going to sugar coat anything and i am not looking for sympathy. The goal is to write down my race plan and keep to it as much as I can. Any feed back on how to extend The Line until the latest part of the run, i am all ears.
Breakfast - Gatorade, 2 packs of oatmeal with peanut butter.
Pre-race - Glide and Dz Nuts everything under the sun. :)
Swim - 1:15 to 1:25 (depending on the current)
Bike - 7:00 to 7:30 - (heck just finish before cut off)
Run - 5:30 to 6:00
Goal Finish Time - Before 17 hours
Swim -
RELAX - Count strokes, keep to the left of the island the whole time. Less of a current on the way out to the turn around and I'll catch some of the current and less crowded on the way down river.
Complete disclosure - I have not swam in open water in over 3 years. :) OK, before anyone say, WHAT!!!.. I love open water swimming, I do not panic, I find swimming very relaxing.
T1- Keep it simple. Remove as many moving parts as possible. Have a bottle water to rinse out the Ohio River out of my mouth. Take a Gel. In my bike jersey, 6 gels and three packs of open shot blocks. Put on extra dz nuts, jersey, put on helmet, socks, shoes, sunglasses. Get out of the tent. Should be in the tent no more than 2 minutes. I alway find the tent HOT, uncomfortable and just a mess.
Bike -
I am using BestBikeSplit for my bike. If i keep to the plan and just stay in the watts, i should be done around 7:07. The Normalized power should be around 118 watts and average power 114. I am taking the bike EXTREMELY conservative and relax in aero as much as possible. Just follow the watts that BestBikeSplits tells me to hit. None of the numbers are unreasonable (heck they look lower than I would normally bike)
Eating and drinking on the bike: Gel every 45 minutes, shot block every 20 minutes, 2 bottles of Gatorade every hour. Shot blocks are just to change up textures. I hate Cliff shots but that is what I have been training with. At aid stations, Grab one bottle of gatorade and rack it. Then grab a second bottle and fill up the reservoir.
T2 - Get rid of the bike! Go into the tent, Swap shirts to a running shirt, have a bag with my gels and hat. Put on shoes and hit the bathroom if there is a short line.
Run - SLOW!!!! Keep my pace down between 11:30 and 12:15 for the run. Walk water stations. Keep on Gels every 3 miles. Drink Gatorade and water every aid station. Need to focus on my posture, relax my shoulders. Keep my heart rate as low as possible. Again, i am taking the run extremely conservative. I am trying to move The Line as far into the run as possible.
Just so we all know, my training has been bad this year. To finish is an achievement for me at this point.
Comments
Good on ya for Owning your current level of fitness and setting appropriate goals for this race.
If you swim an "Easy" ~1:30 and take your time through transitions (but don't bake a cake) and ride what you think is a "very Conservative" ~7:30 bike, you should be set up well. That is still a LONG time on a bike and TSS will inevitably rack up. I'd almost recommend getting off your bike for a few seconds at BSN and do a quick leg/back/neck stretch and shakeout (in the context of a long day, this might be 1 minute well spent). I'd also change positions a lot on the bike which that course will certainly allow for. Try to stay aero on the flats, but be quick to sit up on all of the small uphills. And vary your cadence when possible and be as conservative as you can on the hills.
If you execute S & B even close to your plan, you'll have ~8 hours to finish a marathon... If you can tick of 5-7 miles in that ~12 min context, you could practically walk the rest and still finish in time. So I'd recommend running as many of those ~12 min miles as you can (NEVER running faster than the 11:30) and see what happens... Heck, @Steve boer ran ~11:30-12:00 miles for the whole thing in Wisconsin and was BLOWING BY people in the last ~10 miles... So if you can no longer run the ~12 min miles at some point, try doing a scheduled run/walk strategy where you say run for 5 mins then walk for 1... you can then move this to 4:1 or 3:1 as the day dictates. At a minimum this will prolong the point at which you are doing only walking. I've seen some people on IM courses that once they start walking they literally NEVER run again until the last 100 yds... And there is also a difference between a leisurely walking pace and an "ANGRY MAN WALK". If you're walking, swing your arms and walk with a purpose... Very big difference between a ~15:00/mi walk and a ~21:00/mi walk and you will likely be able to do the 15:00/mi version if you make up your mind to do so.
Good luck. Execution and mindset will be paramount for you! I'll be cheering from MN!
@John Withrow THank you! Look, baking a cake in transition is critical. How else are you going to make friends on the bike and run. Most people like yellow cake with chocolate frosting. HMMMM
For transitions, I hate them with a passion. The tent is hot and nasty. So i am in and out as fast as possible.
The amazing news about the run is that is not hilly. If i can will myself to just suck it up and shut down the evil brain, I should be ok on the run. When i have walked in IM before, it has been a man with a purpose. I got the big leave me alone face on and just swinging the arms like a mad man. (i averaged a 15:52 at Choo when i had to walk 20 miles because of back issues).
Thank you for the advice and encouragement. I will surviving and tell the tail of how not to train for an Ironman with major depression and anxiety issues.
@Jonathan Brown I've done a couple 16 hour IM finishes and one in the 16:5X range so here the wisdom I've gained from going slow.
First off focus on the finish not any of the individual numbers. Don't do anything until late run to jeopardize the finish.
Swim - Don't do any damage with pushing your swim. If you don't have the swim miles in I've found trying to push is just not worth it. I'm typically a 1:30 IM swimmer. I also had the same tag line as you comfortable in the water, like swimming and it's calming. This did catch up to me on one IM swim. So if possible get out and do even a short swim in the wetsuit on Friday.
Bike - It's a long time to be on the bike for 7-8 hours. Again don't push the watts if you don't feel it. My big issues were w/kg and doing the Lake Placid course.
Run
I'd be interested to hear some of the training, long bikes/runs mileage to better direct some of my slower recommendation. Perhaps you have more in the tank than a 16 hour IM. Your numbers suggest an ~15 hour IM finish.
@Gordon Cherwoniak
Numbers on bikes and run:
Biking i have been doing 50 to 85 miles pretty much every weekend on Saturday and then adding a bike maybe on sunday at like an hour or so for the last 3 months. The mid week bike has been MEH. I have tried . My watts have increased. My current FTP is at about 170. This was a test from like 4 months ago. I can do the mid week bikes with ease right now. The biggest reason for going slow and low watts is because i have not done the distance. Without the distance, i think i am at a disadvantage.
Running - Longest run is 13.1 miles, I have done a few 10's to 13's. My usual pace for running is between a 9:45 to 10:15. So the 11:30 to 12:15 is pretty conservative. Normally i am running once to twice a week. Trying to hit the long runs as much as possible.
I am fine with just finishing this race. As long as i am smiling, crying, and happy at the finish, I am more than fine with what ever happens. There will be a boat load of pain and discomfort.
I will also get into the water on Friday just to get the feel of the wetsuit and to see how the current is in the cove.
@Jonathan Brown Sorry I'm just circling back to this thread. It's definitely hard to do an IM on short bike fitness for me. The 50-85 will definitely be a test, but you at least seem to have some consistency.
Your 114 NP bike while looking conservative only is if you can ride smoothly (low VI) and reduce any spikes in during the ride. You are targeting .67. Again you want to keep feeling decent as long as possible, say mile 90. The final 20 can be tough but if well pace I've felt decent over that last hour in a 7-8 hour ride but the power does still fade a little.
You have run the numbers on best bike split try to keep the TSS around or below 300 if possible. This might mean a slightly lower IF.
Running: a VDOT of 38 has a TRP of 9:51 which equates to a Z1 LRP of 10:35. IM execution has LRP +30" for the first 6 miles. So if you come out of the gate at 12:15 you are being conservative, the 11:30 not so much. Not sure if you follow your HR as well. The EN execution mentions 10-15 beats higher than the average you saw on the bike as a guide for your run all day pace. Look at your training data to see what you have from a few of the 85 mile bike rides you have done and a few of the 10-13 milers running.
I did not look at the run profile but maybe set a HR cap just your run all day pace. Look at that TRP or TRP + 5 beats (if that's too close to your average bike HR) as a cap on your HR on any hills. Don't be afraid to walk to get the HR down but do have a plan to restart as it gets harder and harder the deeper you go. Early on, say miles 1-10 once the HR is back down it's back to running. Middle miles 11-20 I might give myself a max of 2030 additional steps. Last 6 miles find that one thing and hold on. I also have permission to walk the 20-30 sets at each aid station to get nutrition, ice and bring the HR back down if needed.
ok, so to get my TSS down to below 300, i will need to ride a .61 TS to keep it below TSS that low. This will add some time to my bike around 28 minutes. How will lowering TSS by 30 points help me in the end of the day? will it move my wall of feeling like cramp from miles 90 to miles 100? or remove it from the bike? Cause if i can feel better for 22 more miles, i am fine, but if i am only going to feel better for 10 miles, it it worth it? since the last 20 miles is net down and flat? Or is this going to help on the run more so?
As for the run, if i take the last 4 runs greater than 12 miles, i my heart rate average 157. That is low for me, i typically in the 170's. I have a high heart rate and it is hard to keep down. So for it to be that low, i am actually shock.
@Gordon Cherwoniak I am hosed, it is going to be a death march. Its just a fine line between where the march begins. I know that the last 20 to 30 miles on the bike is always hard for me during other ironmans. So, we will have to go to a happy place to get to the run. Then on the run, just sludge down the road aid station to aid station, walk aid stations and then mentally force myself to run. The mental side is also going to be a challenge, but i need to do it. I am not someone that chuck in the towel because i did not train the way i should have. I actually trained the way i could for this one. There are lots of factors beyond location, desire, and time.
@Jonathan Brown looks like a good plan. I look forward to racing with you. The last 30 miles of bike and run sound similar to me for last few events. Hopefully we can find each other push through this thing!
@Jonathan Brown I don't think you want to give up 28 minutes on the run and ride .61. My n=2 or 3 experience at riding an 7-8 hour IM is that when I nailed the EN execution the last time even with a long bike and around 303 TSS I could still run a 6 hour marathon. From memory I believe I was 6 or so minutes slower on the back half of the marathon. I ran most of that marathon with a weekly mileage peaking at 22 mile range and only maybe 2-3 weeks of over 20 miles. Longest run was 14.5 miles. My logs are on the other computer but I also crashed coming in the the race in 2017 and missed the final race rehearsal but had the one long 6 hour bike. All this to say you can be undertrained and still execute what you have. I also did not feel like a death march at anytime but have in the past by pushing too much
If the 170 watt FTP is close I think the 118 watts is a high. 114 watts and .67 is not a bad place to be but the high TSS will most likely force you to a walk at some point. If the FTP is above 170 all the numbers are off. So the trade off is slightly slowing the bike to allow for more running. If I were picking a number assuming a 170 FTP I'd go slightly more conservative on the bike say 112-114 watts for the first 90 minutes, this is .66-.67. and if you feel good pick it up and maybe target 116-118 for the back half . Again this is assuming the 170 watts from 4 months ago is anywhere near accurate as you mentioned the watts increasing. Even a 175 watt FTP puts the 118 NP watts at .67. If you look at your long ride data what is your NP, 5 hour power at (or longest rides 4-5 hours). This could shed some further light on to what's an easy pace for you give the training you have put in.
The half and full IM webinar in the link below has the TSS table that I refer to I believe.
http://members.endurancenation.us/Resources/Wiki/tabid/91/Default.aspx?topic=Race+Execution+%28Ironman%29
or check this link as it has a version that friel used and we had a discussion on.
https://endurancenation.vanillacommunities.com/discussion/20951/tss-and-pacing-for-im-friel-chart
You typically want to be in the grey but the lightest colour of yellow/orange can work for strong runners. So a cap of 300-308 would be for the very strong runners.
From the a 13 mile long run on a good day, decent execution that's where I'd expect the run to get hard. With good execution you can push that out to 15-16 then the last 8 is on you slog through. Given your limited SBR training it will be difficult but don't get in the death march mentality until it happens. Yes it will be tough but with good execution you can still walk with purpose to a 15' mile on the run.