How Fast Do Old Folks Slow Down?
Normally, I'd put this in the Boomers' Forum, but I think it has general applicability to everyone over the age of 37, which is pretty much 90% of us...
While the concepts in here, and even the data are not new, the link to a calculator created by an economist who has studied progressive slowing in endurance times for decades is quite helpful. I plugged in my best times for 5K, 13.1 mi, and IM, and then looked at my progression after each of those. The drop off over yers, even as long as 15 (5K) was within seconds. And it confirmed my own assessment of what I *should* be able to do in IM AZ next month, after 4 years away from that course. So I am going with that as a target.
Bear in mind that with longer races (really, anything longer than a 5K), it's probably not a good idea to compare different courses, given topographic and climatic difference.
The calculator page: https://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/aging/runoth2.htm
Comments
Very interesting @Al Truscott! For me, my times were fairly steady from age 57 thru 61. Then after 61 until now 64 they really dropped off. I'm now 30 sec. per mile slower than at 60 yo. Also, it's 30 sec. whether I'm doing an occasional mile repeat, tempo run or a long slow run. The good news is the calculator has me just under 4 hours at 65 so I'll have that in my head for sure next year!