Scott Liston IM 70.3 Steelhead (6/30) Plan
Team,
Here is my race plan for 70.3 Steelhead on 6/30.
Scott Liston 70.3 Steelhead Plan
The weather looks reasonable – low of 65, high of 76, 6MPH winds, partly cloudy, probably typical midwestern humidity. I’ll bring the rain stuff just in case.
I have stalked the athletes in my age group and I am seeded 14th based on https://www.obstri.com/ and the USAT rankings. There are five All Americans signed up in my age group! They are all faster than me. 7th is realistic so I expect to be 14th to 7th for the day depending on the day the field has. I will control what I can do and if per chance my wife can find me and shout out my position on the run and it motivates me, then that would be cool!
Swim:
I’ll get in line in the middle to back of the 30-35 minute group. Assuming cool water temps, wetsuit legal, the plan is to wear the full wetsuit and I expect to come out of the water in 35 mins. + the run up the beach to transition. This is consistent with race rehearsals.
T1: Gotta practice getting the wetsuit sleeves off my hands and watch. This new wetsuit is very narrow at the wrists. It might be a challenge to get off around the timing chip on the ankle too.
Bike target: 190W NP, VI < 1.04, 2:34 (-7 minutes vs. year ago) – time is an estimate, the course has changed vs. 2018; new bike and better aero position may result in a quicker time.
The plan: Settle in at 186W (81% FTP). Keep track of number of times I have to burn matches to pass. If frequent, these will push me up to 190W NP. If infrequent, I will push 83% (190W) from Mile 45 aid station to Mile 55 (entrance to the park). It would be cool if there are athletes out there going the same pace as me and I can just hang back the required 6 bike lengths and ‘join the train.’ I’m usually a little too eager to pass and burn matches. Estimated TSS: 177 Expected HR is 138-142. Monitor only to ensure nothing weird is happening. This is all about 4W higher than last year. Race Rehearsals haven’t quite been there. I’ll be depending on a very consistent cycling based this year and a little grit to make it happen!
Nutrition: Depending on the weather, two to 2.5 bottles of Gatorade Endurance and a Clif bar (6 sections, one every 20 minutes, I set the time to go off every 20 mins).
T2: Super-fast - everything in a ziplock (hat, glasses, numberbelt, sunscreen) put it all on in the first 100 yards then deposit bag in a trash can.
Run: it should be a little cooler than last year which is worth 2-3 minutes. First race using Stryd Power meter. My critical power is 256. At an average of 237 (.925), Stryd predicts 1:55 so that’s the target! -7 minutes vs. last year.
· First three miles: 225W, 230W, 235W
· Middle seven miles: 240W
· Last three miles: maintain 240W and push higher as possible/if feelin’ it!.
· This is consistent with Race Rehearsals
Heart rate will be in the mid-150s depending on the weather. Monitor only. Execute based on Watts.
Nutrition: Gatorade Endurance at each aid station and a Gu every three miles. Watch hands/skin for bloating from too much salt. Switch to water/coke if/when I get sick of GE or feel bloated from the salt especially if the weather is cool.
I think that’s it.
Scott
Comments
@Scott Liston Well-reasoned. I'm curious, since your estimated bike power & TSS are based on race rehearsal, was that RR IMMEDIATELY preceded by a 1900m swim? I;ve found that will add 5-10 bpm to my bike heart rate.
I like the "six sections" of a cliff bar. I;ve been doing that the past couple of years, cutting them beforehand, and placing in the bento-esque box attached to my top tube. Maybe 'cause I'm smaller (?), I eat one every 30'. But I also have a gel flask velcro'ed to my stem, and take another 100 cal every hour that way.
Will be interesting to see the results of a power-based run. Is this course flat? If so, the value of using power is pretty minimal vis-a-vis HR, IMO.
Al,
Thanks for the feedback.
One race rehearsal was preceded by a 1900M swim and one was not. They were in the 130 -132 bpm range. Weather was cloudy and cool. My Bike HR cap is based on previous HIM races that are very consistently averaging 140-142 BPM - the effect of a good swim effort at race pace and running up to T1 from the beach.
It seems like we are taking in similar calories, Al. I target 250/hr. which seems to work for me.
Patrick gave me feedback (and I agree) to dial the run down a bit to 220 first three miles and 230 middle seven. I went by RPE and HR last year in both my HIM races to good success. There are three big hills on this course and the rest is rolling. So perhaps Stryd will help me keep things nice and steady.
Thanks again and I'll post a RR on the outcome!
Scott
Controlling the first 25-30% of any triathlon run is usually a key to success. Especially the first 1/2 to full mile out of the chute needs to be humble and patient, so following that cap on power should serve as a good rein.
Thanks so much,@Al Truscott, I always appreciate your insight!
Looks like a good plan. I might suggest a "Plan B" for your bike in case the swim is canceled. Steelhead always seems 50/50 on whether they have the swim and canceling swims seems to be a theme in 2019. (Happened to us in Eagleman - lesson learned.) Also depending on the wind there can be some decent chop & swells on Lake Michigan - the year I did it we had some waves and as a left-side single-side breather it was no fun. Do you have a sighting plan?
For the run, do they still take you out to the Whirlpool campus with that wicked hill? I remember it being a 2-loop course so you got to experience that super-steep SOB twice. Will be interesting to see how you manage it this year with Stryd power. As I recall, once you crest the hill on the 2nd loop you are downhill toward the finish on the beach.
Best of luck & mad skills!
Thanks for your input, @Ross Randolph !
The conditions look good so far for the swim but you are wise to suggest I prepare for no swim. Likely lower HR and a few more watts
I am pretty good at sighting. Last year we had big swells and I survived!
The run is as you remember. My plan is steady watts up those hills!