WTF IS HAPPENING???!!!
They're dropping like dominos in a row, all the events we training for and anticipating. Boston, Giro,, local rides, EN AZ Camp. Some are still a bit slow on the uptake, like WTC, but they'll come around by next week.
I thought a place to vent, share, and learn would help us beyond what's happening on the GroupMe's.
Here's something I wrote there to help me make some sense of what's going on:
It seems like the primary driver of cancellations is to slow the rate of spread of the virus, in order to space out the burden on hospitals and care providers. Main data point used is the curve of cases diagnosed over time. With normal transmission patterns plus the soon to be massive increase in testing, that curve will still be seen to be rising at least through the next 2 weeks, and possibly 2-4 more. Until that curve is obviously dropping - fewer cases diagnosed per week - the powers that be will have to continue recommending "no gatherings of greater than 50" (or 100 or whatever) which anybody who has insurance for their event will HAVE to follow. Don't wanna get sued when someone dies from Covid-19 possibly picked up at their event. Larger events, like the TdF or Olympics - will need a longer lead time to cancel, like the Giro did today.
Comments
Thank you @Al Truscott .
@Al Truscott: I’m glad you brought this to the forums. I care for individuals who are at highest risk of severe negative outcomes of infection. Our clinic has a strict protocol to identify potential cases, we have a system to isolate them, examine them in full respiratory and droplet protective gear, and triage them to the hospital or home quarantine for 14 days with daily telephone check-in. The CDC has denied most requests for confirmation testing. That just changed, so many, many more cases will be “identified” over the next week. The people reading this form are extremely likely to experience “just another spring cold,” should they become infected. There is a “life as usual attitude” among healthy individuals. Personally, my profession makes me at high risk for exposure, and I am still heading to the pool and running on the indoor track at the university. I’m going to focus on getting enough sleep and keeping my TSB above -15 for a while. I will wear a mask and limit contact with my most vulnerable patients.
While I agree with the cancellation of events through late April. We at the American Geriatrics Society hope to be able to attend our large meeting in Southern California in early May. We will have a lot to talk about. I agree with your prediction regarding the length of time where banning large events will be necessary or useful. A reduced (read “sharpening”) training block to try and keep from losing a critical time from illness may, in fact, lead to some surprise race performances at St. George from those who have been slaying themselves on Zwift for a while now. The large events should persevere through current hysteria-based on emotion and plan for business as usual... everyone else in the world will be busy planning their summer vacation.
@John Culberson @Al Truscott please keep this lucid thread going.
These past two weeks, and at least the next 4-6 IMO are the Strangest Things that have happened to our planet in my lifetime. Similar in its disruption to WW II I suspect. Not loss of life, or evil actions of course, but in terms of how EVERYTHING is upended, and resources are suddenly and massively diverted to one over arching goal. After the dust settled in 1946-7, many things changed on a long term societal basis, like employer paid health insurance became the norm in the US, work week hours and overtime rules changed, social democracy took hold in Europe, discoveries and improvements made for the war effort were translated into unimaginable acceleration in the quality and nature of daily life for so many people. I am hopeful that a similar wave will follow the current crisis. Don't know exactly what, how or when, but I'm getting inklings from the future that the consensus on work life (paid sick leave, child care, etc.) and health care financing in the US will be evolve as a result. Right now, some are slower than others to see the need for these changes, but afterwards, attitudes will be different, I think.
I want to immediately edit my previous thread. I WILL NOT be swimming in a pool nor running on an indoor track until case incidence begins to decline. Gyms, etc are areas where groups congregate and share equipment. Social distancing is not like toilet paper... it is the most effective way to save lives. Vulnerable individuals, including many who are your friends and family need us to slow the spread of COVID-19 enough to allow hospitals to maintain some capacity to treat those who become critically ill. The next few weeks are essential in this effort. The US has done quite well to this point. I suspect that there will more restrictive public health orders in the near future.
New cases are clearly on the decline in China and South Korea. This is a temporary crisis, however, the result will be staggering. Team EN is strong, and will find a way to continue training while protecting their community.
Doing outpatient family practice in Pierce County, Washington state. My Clinic loads are light. Folks staying away. But higher volumes in urgent care and emergency rooms. Company trying to allow some of us to do visits from home. In case my clinic has to close, for instance, hopefully could “see” folks from home.
As above, hopefully this will lead to a rework of our health system. For a first world nation, USA healthcare sucks for a large minority, if not the majority.
And there is no excuse for the horrendously inadequate response to Covid.
We blanking better have the ability to do unlimited testing soon.
I have a business that is likely in the toilet for a year, Wall street recruiting. I have a small staff and have cut my budget to hell, but that's just me, I'll figure it out and get by.
my biggest personal focus is to be positive, I am working from home, I am finishing making a new house ready and hopefully we'll be able to pull the move-in off in a few weeks. Meantime, I decided earlier this past week to be more extreme than others, to essentially focus on trying to do what we now call "social distancing," while getting me three girls home from Amherst, Rochester (NY) and Cleveland. I now have an hour extra a day to get workouts in and stop making excuses. I do have a spring cold, or is it allergies, saw doc, he says allergies, but dang I feel like shizz.
Jill is high risk, my mom is 83 and I told her to call if she needs anything and we'll figure out how to get it to her. We need as individuals to be much more vigilant than our leaders (all of them at all levels) ask, as So Korea has demonstrated that is the only successful way we know of so far.
let's all keep the positive mojo flowing here, and support each other as we always do. I predict a lot of late summer and fall rides and events will happen and will be oversold as people get out of their quarantines.
Good conversation for sure. My sister, who works in public health is saying that epidemiological models are showing a peak as late as July. Not sure if that is specific to our state, or across US.
I work at the Rochester (NY) Jewish Community Center, and teach in the aquatics department - children and adults. We went from reduced hours over the weekend, to being closed for the rest of the month - as of today.
I am mentally preparing for IMLP to be cancelled.
I don’t know why I am taking so much comfort in this thread, but I’m guessing it has something to do with thinking about what ‘community’ means to me these last few days, and the various communities that we form, and which form us. I’ll likely flip into telework by tomorrow, and start spending much much more time holed up in our condo in the weeks ahead, and this community is a bright light against some of the isolation ahead.
There is still so much that we don't know, like how many are getting it and are asymptomatic, whether immunity lasts, what are the impacts on survivors (e.g., lung scarring, chronic fatigue), and whether this burns out or becomes endemic. At this point it feels 50/50 whether big late-season races happen; I'm sure we will be cautious turning the spigot back on. I'm glad at least that we can still bike and run outside here. Our family is also figuring out the logistics of two-parent work from home with young kids at home for the foreseeable future.
Steve Palladino had some thoughts on adjusting training in this environment, to keep our immune systems strong. Basically, try to keep a moderate training load, with somewhat lower volume, more rest days, and less high intensity training than we might normally have heading into an A race. In particular, watching out for single workouts over 2x CTL.
@Dave Tallo I agree that there's great comfort in this thread, and in knowing that there are other folks out there going through the same struggles and same emotional roller-coaster at the moment.
My "A" race (70.3 Santa Rosa) is scheduled for May 9 so it hasn't officially been cancelled yet but the writing is on the wall. The SF Bay Area just went on a 3 week "shelter in place" yesterday. No going outside except for essential items. My wife is working from home for the next month (her entire global company of 75,000 employees is working from home). My two high school-aged kids are off of school for the next 4 weeks. In short, things are pretty surreal at the moment. My last thought before dozing off last night was to wonder whether I needed to set an alarm for 5AM so I could go get in line at the grocery store before they open so I can get bread and milk. Adding to this, my 83 year old father is currently going through some serious medical issues. We're in and out of emergency rooms and doctor's offices. He had to have emergency surgery Saturday night. The emergency room at Kaiser was every bit as chaotic as you can imagine. Each time we set foot in a hospital I wonder if this is where he gets the infection that will kill him.
So, with all of this going on, spending 2-3 hours a day training at the moment seems not only a little selfish, but also is quite honestly the furthest thing from my mind. I just skipped a workout yesterday because I just didn't feel like it for the first time in a VERY long time. I've bailed on WO's before if I'm feeling run down or whatnot, but I just didn't feel like working out yesterday. So I find myself in this weird place at the moment where my race is still technically on, but I'm wishing they (Ironman) would just cancel it and get it over with now rather than dragging out decisions to the last possible moment so I can mentally start the process of planning how to get through the next 2, 3, 4 months in this surreal world (I don't think life gets back to normal in 3-4 weeks), and then start a "new normal" after that.
Just got the notice that 70.3 Santa Rosa was postponed. At least now I can get on with the business of figuring out what's next.
It is interesting to read this thread today (April 2) and realize how much has changed in this short amount of time. This thread stopped on March 17 and things are already very different. It would be interesting to get an updated perspective from those you on the front line.
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Agree with @Al Truscott, however, most wars are won when one side overextends, and their supply lines are lost or cut-off. The virus can not overcome strong social distancing. We all have the power to limit the losses in our community. Our team is made-up of some of the most disciplined and fittest individuals in America. Some of us are likely (and need to eventually) be infected in order to gain immunity, and thus unable to spread the virus. This is akin to limiting and eventually cutting off our enemy's "supply line." As fit individuals, we are very likely to have no or very mild symptoms. That is good news, however, places additional responsibility upon us. Not everyone is an athlete. Social distancing remains our most effective weapon at this time, and for at least the next few weeks (or more). There will be many battles in many cities and states over an extended period of time. The size and urban/suburban/rural variation of our nation will create considerable different situations and time-frames.
Many of us are wondering when we will be able to get back to racing. I don't have an answer, however, it is likely that the enemy will run low on supplies (people to infect) and withdraw. We will replenish our supplies (now is not the time for politics) and gain knowledge to improve our defenses. Our workforce will need to return to work, and many of us will start thinking about "Race-Specific Training." The enemy is likely to launch another (hopefully much smaller) wave, once a supply of non-immune individuals emerges from stay-at-home order. Coronavirus outbreaks are typically seasonal, however, we have no way of knowing whether COVID19 will play by the rules. The number of unknowns and variations across states and cities makes models predicting a midsummer return to relative normal, subject to significant modification based on expereince. Testing for immunity will be a game-changer, and permit us to divide into those who are at risk (for infection or infecting) from those (hopefully the majority) who are immune and unable to provide a "supply line" for the enemy. Does that mean we can race... or that we should race? We won't know...that's why they call it a new normal. I doubt that there will be a "COVID Immune" race season, but frankly, a large gathering of healthy, fit and low risk individuals at a triathlon could be seen as an opportunity to gain immunity in the community, and reduce the number of potential "virus spreaders." There is no easy solution, since a very small number of young fit people may become seriously ill. Unlike other World Wars, however, we can be relatively certain that the human immune system will eventually defeat our enemy. Just like race day, this is a good time to be a fit athlete with patience... and Zwift!
I'll chime in since I was one of the ones that posted a few weeks ago. Someone (perhaps @Coach Patrick ) made the observation that some folks live for racing and will have 10-15 events on their calendar every season while others live for training and will have 1-2 races on the calendar that serve mostly as season goals. I'm definitely in the latter category, so when my one "A" race of the year was postponed indefinitely that threw me for a major loop. After sulking around for a few days without purpose, I decided that I simply needed a goal - real or made up - and I'd be happy. So I took a guess that 70.3 SR will be rescheduled to mid-Sep, and re-adjusted my training plan to reflect that... and off I go! Happy as a clam to S/B/R on my Vasa, Zwift and treadmill. I'm in week 2 of my new OS now.
Now, as far as real-world problems go... living in the heart of Silicon Valley we're literally in the middle of one of the early Covid 19 hotspots. The county of Santa Clara has a dashboard on their website that's updated daily, and it has some fascinating statistics on what's happening locally. It's interesting to note that while there continue to be new cases, there's no sign of the exponential growth that's happening elsewhere. I think that this is largely attributable to the early and rigorous 'shelter in place' measures that were enacted here. All schools have been closed for three weeks now, and will be closed for the remainder of the school year. All non-essential businesses are closed, and pretty much all tech companies have sent all their employees home. Fingers crossed that things remain stable here, and stabilize elsewhere as more and more places adopt similar measures.
Dallas County just had their SIP extended until May 20.
My gf said her corporate office (she's working from home now) probably won't be opened for her workgroup to come in until at least Q1 2021.
@John Culberson I love your very cogent extension of the idea of our current situation as a war.
Yes, we are all (presumably) very fit and discipline and that will help us. But no matter how fit I am, or however many IMs I've done. It couldn't stop my hair from turning grey, nor my eyes from developing presbyopia. At 70, I know it taskes a lot longer for my skin to heal after road rash. All this reminds me that I should very seriously consider the possibility that the cells lining my lungs are less capable simply due to my age to fight off SARS CoV2 than even a 55 y/o. My kids for some reason want me to stay healthy, so I will try to oblige them by avoiding the virus if at all possible until I know I am immune, either from exposure or vaccine.
@Al Truscott Discipline can keep one safe. Many of the younger doctors that I supervise see me as low-risk... because of my level of fitness. I have done research and clinical education in aging for three decades. I’ve experienced the changes in performance that you describe. It is unclear how my immune system will react to a specific virus. Regulation of the immune system is a complex series of complex cellular changes, and I suspect that my response might be a little looser than it was even five years ago. (My run pace certainly is). My ego might try to tell me to volunteer for front line critical care positions... but ego has never worked in an Ironman, so I will remain focused on keeping my vulnerable older patients out of the hospital. If I am infected, I could be responsible for infecting them. Getting plenty of sleep, eating well, and keeping my TSB near zero is my “race plan,” and execution is the key for all of us to get through this Ironman.
A friend of a friend who is a young healthy marathoner just died of Covid. Very sobering. I have been treating everyone as if they are infected for about three weeks. As a family physician following the science closely, I’ve thought for about two weeks that everyone should be wearing masks in public. My goal is to not only avoid getting it, but to avoid transmitting it (30-50% of infected people have no symptoms).
I’m one of those who live to train and only have a few events on my calendar every year. So I will just keep trucking and changing my goals.
I do feel that life in America will forever be changed. Now we know exactly which meetings could have been emails. Or phone calls. I’ve been working from home and am more productive than ever. I’d like to permanently work from home a couple days per week. If everyone who was able did that, we could cut traffic, pollution, and resource consumption.
Telehealth is huge now. I’m finding that something like 70% of patients really didn’t need to come in at all. I’ve gotten really good at teaching them how to do my physical for me. The only trouble is when my fingers actually have to feel something like a lump or an abdomen. Or when I wish I had a lab test. If our system could figure out how to pay telehealth appropriately, we could change things for the better.
Perhaps manufacturing of meds and medical supplies will come back to America. I think this has exposed some critical vulnerabilities.
Lastly, I think a lot of people are learning to appreciate slowing down. Does every second of our kids’ lives need to be scheduled? Friends Of mine are finding out how much they enjoy cooking at home. People are discovering that they are talking more by text and FaceTime than they did ever before and are actually closer now. I hope that continues.
This will all be over eventually and I hope our country comes out stronger for it.
I've been working from home for the last 3 weeks and I put in my retirement application effective in late May and I anticipate I will be working at home until I retire. I miss my team but we Skype regularly during the day and I do get more done in less time. My wife is a professor and works at home most days so this is giving us a chance to work things out before I'm home all the time. I also wanted to start a new routine of reading and writing when I retire, so this is kick starting those habits. In that sense this is good.
As far as the training and racing goes, this does make that more difficult to take seriously. For the last couple of years I haven't been training as seriously I had when I was building to qualify for Kona. At this point I'm in the last couple of weeks of January OS. I do enough to maintain my fitness but I'm also cognizant of my training load and I don't want to do too much to rundown my immune system. I want to get back on my gravel bike but most of the gravel roads around me are on Dept. of Natural Resources land and all 6.5 million acres are closed for now. I'll stay away because I don't want to be that person. But the roads and trails are still open so I'll take advantage of those when the weather is nice (like today 😎).
Take care everyone. See you on the other side of this.
This thread should be renamed from WTF is Happening to Wise Smart Advice (WSA) Happening and read by all self-coached athletes.
Thank you @Al Truscott @John Culberson @John Katsoudas @Leslie Knight @Mark Maurer
@scott dinhofer - how are you feeling?
I understand how important it will be to have some kind of serum test to determine if we have already had it and are immune.
I dont understand how it will be such a game changer though for 2 reasons.
I watched a video the other day demonstrating how cross contamination works, albeit a bit exaggerated , it got the point across.
Heather heard a good analogy, comparing it to glitter. Have you ever received a greeting card with glitter on it, opened it up , read it, saved it for your spouse to read, and then thrown it in the garbage? Then found glitter on your hands, clothes, floor, counters, etc for the next week? And that is something we can see!
@tim cronk You are correct... unfortunately. While testing for antibody will give public health and community leaders a much more accurate count, and therefore a measure of progress toward the 60-80% herd immunity necessary to relax social restriction, even that number is unclear due to properties of the virus and variations between communities and human behavior. Social distancing sucks, but in my opinion, it prevented a very bad situation. Once the disease burden declines (different curves in different parts of the country) community leaders will move (possibly too quickly) to restore their businesses, churches, schools, etc. Unfortunately, flattening the curve DOES NOT change the need for a significant number of individuals to be immune, it just stretches it out over a much longer period of time. As Tim pointed out, without hand washing and social distancing, it is possible for immune individuals to spread virus “glitter” via touch. This will be more of an issue in densely populated areas, but glitter is persistent and large group gatherings are potentially problematic. Personally, I’m not counting on a quick fix vaccine, and small outbreaks are likely to be common. Quickly identified and isolated, particularly with improved knowledge and treatment, these are likely to be a new normal for some time. I am not going to guess a time period, but it will probably create some controversy. Travel and large groups are inherent in our lives. I do not see large scale bans continuing for too long, but each of us (and race directors) will need to decide how and when to participate. School and professional sports have a lot more volume than “slowtwitch” events, so we should be supported in our efforts to return to sport.
As things start to brighten up, @ least here in the PAC NW down through California, I find myself with a new avenue for anxiety. At 71, there are two factors compounding each other. First, of course, is the heightened risk of serious illness. Second is my competitive drive, which at my age means the only races where I can find meaningful competition are large, national and international events. Even if the USAT and ITU short course championships go on as planned, and the WTC IM WC in Kona happens, I'm still left with the knowledge that they attract upwards of 10,000 people from all over the planet. Makes me think of my current favorite Dylan quote, "I have so much left to do, so little time to fail."
Don't tell me it's time to take up ultras. I've only got one decent knee left...
@Al Truscott : Well, I am only a local legend so I’m targeting some summer alpine challenge rides to focus on my weakness (Bike Muscle Endurance) waiting to see where things stand. I’m entered in a couple of Ultra Cycling events in late summer and early fall. No Country for Old Men should provide for plenty of social distancing
I'm not a Doc and have no medical background whatsoever. I do find this a bit fascinating so have been reading quite a bit (like everyone). Yesterday I was trying to understand the difference between virus and disease, my understanding is a disease is not a virus, but a virus can cause a disease?
I do not understand the we will have a vaccine in 12-18 months. While I do not doubt that we will, there appears to be many virus's with NO CURE?
The other intriguing development is the damage they are starting to see in other organs besides the lungs, like the kidneys and heart?
@tim cronk I am not a clinician but from conversations with my medical friends and all the publications concur the risk factor is having a compromised immune system such as those that need dialysis are at a very high risk to not being able to fight off the virus. There are also anecdotal reports coming in of increased strokes to those that recovered from Covid.
My inbox is flooded with supplement companies advertising what to take to have a strong immune system. It's irresponsible and misleading that an impaired immune system can be fixed with vitamins. Folks with high blood pressure, diabetes, heart disease, kidney disease, MS, etc., can only do their best to not get the virus. Plant forward diet and lifestyle with just the right amount of exercise is going to help immune function more than supplements (unless deficient such as Vit. D).
We know that inflammation causes a cytokine storm, like what we get after a big race or over-training and not enough recovery. Athletes with a familial predisposition to cardiovascular disease and diabetes are at a higher risk when doing too much.
Or how about the healthy cyclist that still got Covid from exposure. In another interview with this cyclist, his concern was long term lung damage.
One more observation. The loss of taste and smell. https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/lost-smell-and-taste-hint-covid-19-can-target-the-nervous-system-67312
@tim cronk A disease is a dysfunction or breakdown in the body's normal functioning, either caused by an outside agent such as a virus or bacteria (e.g.,measles, strep throat), or by degeneration of previously normal functioning organ (e.g., diabetes, Parkinson's). An athletic injury is not a disease.
Without going into detail about what a virus is, yes you are correct, a virus is something which can cause a disease. For the current situation:
"Coronavirus" The class of viruses to which the current bad actor belongs, sort of like a lion is part of the larger cat family.
"SARS CoV-2" - the name of the specific coronavirus which causes the disease
"Covid 19" - the name of the disease cased by SARS CoV-2.
Again without going into detail, viruses are harder to completely eradicate than bacteria. Antibiotics like penicillin kill most bacteria, and thus "cure" the diseases which they cause. Most "cures" for viruses actually just keep the disease in check, like the lifelong treatments needed for AIDS (cause by the HIVirus) and Herpes.
A vaccine works because it can tie up a virus as soon as it encounters the body, preventing it from reproducing itself and thus causing disease.
The SARS CoV-2 attaches to a specific protein found on the outside of the cells of many organs apart from the lungs, and thus has the potential to cause problems thruout the body. It is still too early to know what the long-term effects of this might be on anyone.
2 more thoughts.
Herd Immunity? At the current rate of infection/testing it appears it would take longer to achieve than waiting/hoping for a vaccine ? From what I am reading, seeing and hearing, watching protesting, listening to we have already flattened the curve, looking at increased activity , etc, I am of the camp that we maybe a little too optimistic too early. I think Herd Mentality is going to bring about Herd Immmunity.
This is Global? It’s a global economy. Not going to do much good if we don’t act as a whole!