2011 Expert Opinion Request! Ironman Canada and Lake Stevens 70.3
Hello!
I see the "Macro" thread is currently out of order so hopefully this is an appropriate place to post my question(s). I’ve been reading though the training plan forums and think I have a good idea of my plan for the season. I would just like an expert’s $0.02 before I implement. 
Dates I Know:
- 11/28/2010 – Seattle Marathon, aiming to break 4 hrs, last year was 4:20. (Yes, I saw that a fall marathon isn’t the answer to a better IM and I understand. I learned this facet a little too late, but I will take it under advisement for next year.)
- 08/14/2011 - ??? Ironman 70.3 Lake Stevens
- 08/28/2011 – Ironman Canada (Second time around, first was about 13 hrs, not sure about how to set an appropriate time goal for this year yet.)
The Lake Stevens Question
- This is a biggish question for me. In the 2010 season I had signed up to do Lake Stevens as an individual and got some advice NOT to do the race as it was too close to my “A” race. I was a little perplexed because my plan called for me to do almost EXACTLY those distances on that weekend so I didn’t really understand what the harm would be.
- Rather than risk it I took their advice and recruited a couple other folks and we did it as a relay with me on the bike. It was fun but my interest in the race is now doubled because I did really well. My bike split (2:51) was exactly what the age group winner’s was and I can consistently swim 0:34, actually faster than the age group winner did. (I swam 1:05 in my IM.)
- This race has very low admin cost to me and it’s the only 70.3 I can do within driving distance and without getting a hotel. A close second is Boise in June which I could conceivably drive to but would need a hotel.
- I am SOOO tempted to just race Lake Stevens in 2011 and see how I do. It’s no longer my first year at the IM distance, I know some tapers start at two weeks anyway, etc. etc. HOWEVER I know that I’m still pretty new and WILL heed advice as IMC IS my "A" race. And yes, they’ll probably catch me on the run anyway.
- I need someone to give me a green, yellow or red light and I will proceed accordingly.
- If Lake Stevens is a red light, thoughts on Boise?
My Plan – DRAFT!
- 12/06/2010 – 04/24/2011 *** 20 Week Outseason Plan in Full
- 04/25/2011 – 05/08/2011 *** Down Time? Or repeat a week or two of Outseason?
- 05/09/2011 – 08/28/2011 *** 16 of 20 Weeks of Intermediate Ironman Plan (start at week #5)
So in summary, my two specific questions are:
1. How does my plan look overall and any feedback or suggestions?
2. Thoughts on racing Lake Stevens two weeks prior to IMC?
THANK YOU!!!
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Comments
Once the Macro thread in the Training Forum is back up, I suggest you post this for the 'real' advice that the coaches can offer. In the meantime, my thoughts on 2 of your questions:
1. On Lake Stevens, definitely not. A HIM has a very big cost and would definitely impair your recovery coming into your IM. (I'm 10 years and 12 IMs into this, and felt like a HIM 10 weeks out from my A race was high-risk.) There are also some excellent articles on this in the wiki.
2. I would kick your OS start to January 1. The cumulative fatigue you're carrying from your late Nov marathon, on top of a season of IM training, necessitates this. I had the same question last year - after IMAZ, I was rarin' to go with a SO start in December - but received 7-8 unequivocal "No's" from coaches and smart forumites. Let their advice - proxied through me - temper your enthusiasm, chill out in December, and jump in Jan 1. As a bonus, this might actually coincide with the IMWI / IMLOU folks' OS start date, which would give you a very large peer group to work along with.
It's just too close. You could have a great day but what about your race? You went 13+ at IMC, but you swam a 1:05 and can bike a HIM in 2:30s, so that means your run was in the 5.5-6 hour range...so a lot of room to improve your time should you get it right. Would hate for you to be IMC ready but blow it on a half a mere two weeks out. Then again, if you don't care re IMC performance other than getting it done, a half might be fine!
Honest P
I'll repost the season planning in the macro thread but thanks Dave for weighing in. Make sense.