Best qualifying race for Kona
This is a difficult question to answer due to multiple variables but thought I would throw it out there anyway. I am looking for the best qualifying race for Kona for me. I will be 55 so the youngest in my age group, usually giving only 2 Kona slots per race. I did IMFL last year with swim 1:19 but usually average 1:15 ( 33 ish for a half ), bike split was 5:14 and run was 4:06. I placed 19th in my age group but missed the Kona cutoff by 50 min. for my 50-54 age group. I have done 5 hrs flat on a few occasions for 70.3 races. I was heavy at IMFL at 195 lbs but am nearer to 185 now and heading to 180. I don't want to draft at Florida but will likely lose time to those that do. That is the only IM venue I have done so no experience with any other course. Hard question to answer but any suggestions appreciated.
Comments
Jeff, You are right this is a hard question with a lot of variables and ask 5 people and your will get 6 answers ?.
If you haven’t already take a look at this site http://www.runtri.com/2007/05/how-to-qualify-for-kona-road-to-ironman.html
It will not give you a definitive answer but it may help direct you.
My thoughts on the topic: If you have strong IM course execution skills as taught here in the EN house – then tougher courses / conditions provide us an edge over the other fit dudes on the course that don’t know how to execute. A second factor is bigger people with big engines (high FTP levels) often are able to really fly on a flat bike course but will struggle on a hilly course where the lighter smaller peeps (higher w/kg levels) may do better.
Take location and time of year into account as well. If you can train on the course often and know it inside out this can be an advantage.
If you are on the bubble and looking for a roll-down spot certain races are better then others. Typically there are little to no roll downs at all at IMWI, FL and AZ because they are so early but as you get closer to Kona people let spots roll a tiny bit more.
There was just another post on this earlier this week and Dave shared a great link to another report on qualifying as well.
I pu this up on Kona IQ. More statistics for you to ponder.
A while back, when Tri Talk was still an active podcast, it put together an answer to this question here http://www.tri-talk.com/KonaIQ.asp . It breaks things down by age group and if I recall the overall best opportunities seem to lie in places like IM China. IM FL is traditionally one of the hardest courses to qualify for Kona because all the really fast people coming from Europe to compete.
I wouldn't put too much weight on drafting in the selection critieria because it's getting more prevalent at all races as WTC keeps increasing the field size. Considering an average bike length of 70 inches and the 7 meter draft box for age groupers, it takes 11 miles to legally separate 2000 athletes. Bump the field to 2500 and you need over 13.5 miles. Now they are pushing 3000 athletes at some races and it takes 16 miles. The hillier races helps nullify that, but I still saw gross drafting at IMCDA...especially in the flatter sections. There were places in the hills that many riders were in the draft box, but at least they were pulling their own weight up the hills.
Actually I think we are peers. I turn 54 this coming Jan. 9th and so wont' be 55 till 2012. I am taking this year to train pretty much exclusively for bike racing only and running half marathons. You have really thought it out about the bike leg of the races. I feel pretty good about that part, just have to be able to get off and run a 3:45 marathon or better to have a chance at Kona. And Bill, you are right, I would need to increase my workouts. To date, I have rarely put in more than about 7-8 hours per week training. That would have to change.
I'll make a few gross generalizations: European fields are much faster and deeper for KQs, but occassionally roll down further.
My guesses:
-more racers coming cycling backgrounds with big engines and a million miles in their legs.
-Fewer doing IM as a life event; more in EU 'racing' IM instead of 'completing' IM.
-absence of Dairy Queen in EU.
I formulated a few theories in my last outing (without any real data analysis) and observed that the field I was with also knew how to pace and race. In NA experiences, I (or we, for EN'ers) count on some run attrition in the field as a result of the masses pushing too hard on the bike. By my observation, that just didn't happen in EU, and they understood that for success in long distance tri, it's a matter of Not Slowing Down. Big numbers in the field didn't explode in the same spectacular way that I was counting on, and have seen in NA.
I know this observation gets tossed around on ST every summer by surprised North Americans racing a EU IM, and I'll dig through posts to see if anyone has crunched numbers. Especially for KQs.
I would suggest a flatter course and doing 2 ironman qualifiers split between early season and late season. Early season IM Texas; late season IM AZ,IM FL. You would pretty much have to win your age group at Hawaii 70.3 so I wouldn't try to KQ there. IM Lou makes sense because the fastest. people will not choose this one because its only 5 weeks from Kona.
I've got a link to a fairly involved analysis of KQ on my other computer - I'll find it when I get back home. Ironically, I'm sitting in Lava Java typing this at the moment...in Kona for work this week.
While the earliest races like FL, AZ, and WI may not have much/any roll-down, keep in mind that the fastest guys of the current crop are probably sitting them out due to just racing Kona in Oct...so MAYBE a slightly softer field but still tons of fast doods. I went 9:34 at IMFL in 2007 and wasn't really close in the 30-34 AG. I think I needed something like 9:14 to make the cut that year. I might go back to CdA in 2012 - dropped that ball last year andgave up too much time on the bike but I liked the cours overall.
There's a big difference from a humidity perspective between where he is and the Houston area. Heat is very similar but much drier where he is. Humidity often bothers people worse than the heat itself.
That being said, pick a course that plays to your strengths, but always know that there may be "that guy" who shows up and takes "your slot".
Good luck.
Hawaii 70.3 will now be much harder to qualify. They did some allocation changes after the last race that make it much harder to make the Show. Fun race though to get the Hawaii feel. The swim and run have nothing in common with the Ironman. But the bike course is the middle half of the Hawaii Ironman. So that is fun.
It's a really nice quantitative analysis although it hasn't been updated in a couple years. Maybe if a few of us drop him a line he'll bring it current.