To negative split or not to ?
I race today 2nd one in the season. I did not run my VDot the first one cause I didn't think I could run that fast. Well today I was going to blow up trying. Well I stared out 15 seconds slower for a few miles 3, then started to build into my VDot. Around 5 miles I noticed I would not meet my projeced race time even with running at VDot and slightly faster. So I started to pick it up even more running 30 seconds faster than my Vdot so I could meet my time. I finished on time felt good too.
So should I run my race slower than the Vdot and build or run my race at vdot and build if I can ?
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David - You have discovered the best way to pace any endurance race or time trial. I've read some studies of world record distance races, and reports are that usually there is a very slight negative split involved.
As to determining how fast to go at any particular point in a race, here are my thoughts: I've found the VDOT to be a great tool for training, and I've found training to be a great way to ingrain into my brain and body what it feels like to run at various speeds - what effort is involved in running at 5K pace compared to half marathon pace, etc. Also, I'm lucky in that my HR at any effort level is very stable, and I can use that as a check on how I am doing.
I think there are a lot of reasons NOT to use a pace watch to determine how "fast" or "hard" to go during a race. Terrain is variable, so running at 7 min/mile uphill is entirely different than downhill. No matter how you cut it, there will always be a disconnect between what you see on the watch and how fast you are going: the built in GPS elevation "dither" confusing the algorithm, the effect of smoothing, delay in screen display, etc.
So what I do is go by my perceived rate of exertion (RPE), checked by HR. No matter the distance involved, I try to do the first 5-10% at an effort level which seems "easy" for that distance (i.e,, easy will feel slower for a marathon than a 5K). Then, I try to get into the RPE gear that training has taught me reflects the goal pace I have for the race. By the time I hit the 3/4 distance mark of the race, I should be feeling that I am working quite hard, and would be happy to finish at that pace. That's when mental toughness takes over. I try to turn it up GRADUALLY at that point. If I've trained and tapered well, I can finish the race with an increasing effort level. If not, I start to sputter and cough like a car running out of gas. I can't hold turnover, my breathing gets ragged. When I'm racing well, the last 3-4 minutes should be bordering on a constant battle with myself to quit.
What are the RPE cues I go on? The biggest is rate of breathing - how many steps per breath. Another is cramps in my muscles - if they start to appear, I've gone too fast too soon. And a third is HR as I've noted - I can use that to tell me if I'm going to fast or too slow if I have any doubts. Oh, and when your vision gets dark with flashing lights and tunnel vision ... you may have overdone it.