Factoring wind into the race day equation
Hoping some of the WSM have already figured this out?
I am trying to set my goal watts, and goal TSS for the bike portion of my upcoming HIM at White Lake, and have heard from a couple other athletes that its a pretty windy course. My final RR was in done in Florida and mimics the actual race course i.e. its pancake flat :-)
My ftp is 220, weight hovers between 179-185, and I'm not that strong of a runner with a VDOT of 35.
My time was 2:52 for the 56 miles, and I rode at an overall IF of .77 with a non race setup. Didn't have my wheel cover, aero front wheel, race tires, or latex tubes, no aero helmet etc.... Had a pretty good headwind on the back of my out and back ride.
Been playing around with these calculators http://www.bikecalculator.com/appsupport/bikecalculator.html to guesstimate my bike split, and notice a 10mph headwind could put my time off by 15-25 minutes 
Based on riding at an IF of .8, I should be able to ride around 2:45 bike split, but that doesn't factor the crosswind/headwind into it.
That puts me at a TSS of 176, and if I am off by 10-15 minutes it puts me in the trouble zone on the run?
Any help would be much appreciated since this is my very first HIM, and the longest I have raced prior was an OLY several years ago.
I want to get this right, and not screw it up 
Thanks!
Comments
My perspective is that you're overthinking it. I understand your concern about your TSS increasing if your ride goes longer than expected. Accurately predicting ride times is a slippery slope. You are worrying about something that you can't predict with certainty. I would ride your goal watts and leave it at that.
+1
In addition, unless this is a point to point course with a constant wind in your face, wind should be less of a factor than you might expect. Also, the better your aero position, the less important wind becomes - I mean, that's the whole point of being aero, isn't it? Don't forget to tuck your head down low when going into that wind.
In short, we ride with power on a windy course as if the wind were not there. The reason is because while a hill will eventually end = we can tell you ride at x% above goal watts for the hill, a wind...may never end. I rode the IMSG bike loop yesterday and had a 20-25mph head wind on a constant 1-2%, with stretches of 4-5% and kickers, climbs of 8-12% for >25 miles. If I were racing, I'd lock myself into the bars to hide from the wind, would ride goal watts on the 1-4% forever stuff, goal plus about 10% on the actual hills (ie, this a hill that will end, not one of these foreverclimbing sections). But I'd also be at goal watts on any downhills and flats --> where most others will come way off the gas.