Focus on qualifying for the 70.3 WC
Now that I have completed two IM's and three HIM's in the past year, I feel my endurance base is particularly solid. I still have two more HIM's lined up this year. I want to start concentrating on getting faster at the 70.3 distance with the goal to eventually qualify for the 70.3 WC in Vegas.
My best 70.3 time of 5:09 was at Galveston this year. That certainly doesn't cut it in the uber-tough M40-44 division. I need to find 20 minutes to even have a legit shot at a roll down. The thing is I have treated all my 70.3 races as "B" races or training days for upcoming IM races. I look forward to treating a 70.3 as an "A" race. The goal may not happen until I age up to M45-49 in 2015 but I'm fine with putting in the hard work the next few years.
My self assessment on the five disciplines:
Swim: I'm normally a top 20%-25% swimmer. I have NEVER taken a swim lesson. I think I have more or less reached a peak in my swim times with my current (and certainly somewhat flawed) technique. I feel a little tweaking to my technique will get me down closer to a 30 minute 1.2 mile swim.
Bike: I'm a pretty strong biker and just getting stronger and stronger. My AG placing on the bike in the three events I did this year were 4th, 27th and 28th (Kemah Oly, Texas 70.3 and IMTX). I still have some work to do there but I'm at least competitive on the bike.
Run: The run is still my weakness but it has been getting better. I ran a 1:53 at Galveston. That's 10 minutes faster than my time at the Syracuse 70.3 and the Galveston course and conditions were much tougher. I need to get my 13.1 run time down under 1:40 to even think about being in the mix. A minute per mile will be a challenge but I love a challenge.
Transitions: I still lollygag through T1 and T2. I just need to focus, practice and tighten that up.
Nutrition: I feel I have that dialed in now.
It sounds so simple: 3 minutes on the swim, another 5 minutes on the bike, 2 minutes in transition and 13 minutes on the run and I'm right there! 
For the folks that have qualified for the 70.3 WC, what got you over the hump? Hard f*cking work obviously but what finally clicked for you? Race selection could also be key. I'm never going to be a guy that could just waltz into a race knowing I'm going to win, place or show. I'm going to have to hope for the last spot or a lucky roll down and pick and choose my races.
Comments
Bob - you'd be surprised where years of consistency, persistence AND hard work will get you - don't ever limit yourself in your mind as to what your potential might be. After 5 years of steady work, I became a consistent IM WC qualifier, and realised that more than 50% of what was holding me back was not aiming high enough.
You've laid out your plan for yourself already: learn to swim better, figure out how to run faster, and don't give away time in transition. The thing that got me over the hump actually was race execution skills; but being an ENer, you already have those, right?
As to the run, the good/bad news is the #1 way to improve is thru leaner body composition. If you are not in the 6-8% body fat range, you have an opporutnity there. Also, emphasis, especially in the OS on high intensity intervals (TP and IP) is key. The only way to run faster in the race is to rn faster in training, right? It's even more important in the HIM than the IM to have that speed work in you. Sign up for some 5Ks in the winter and learn how to rn fast there.
My body fat is definitely in that range. I'm 6 ft. and 162 lbs (on race day at IMTX). I was a very muscular 187 lbs. about two and a half years ago. I have definitely transformed my body into a lean machine.
I can say that the run, at that distance race, is where the real opportunity lies. However, I would also encourage you that getting into the top 15 in your age group is one accomplishment, but getting into the top 5 is a different kind of stretch. I am speaking from only a few years of triathlon experience, and from the 30-35 age group...but, that last bit of improvement to get to the (as Rich says it) 'pointy end of the age group' is about getting really strong at all three disciplines and probably excellent at one discipline.
That being said...the run is where you can certainly pick up some serious time. This Out Season needs to be a strong time of focus for you! Also, regarding the swim, yeah, find a qualified swim coach...I am about to engage in the same kind of process.
Also...I see Austin on your list of races this year - that is a fun one! Fast swim and bike...challenging run. Good luck this year!
I wanted to really concentrate on the run during the last OS but my last OS was more or less a scheduling bust. I did IMFL in November. I then took a month off to chill and regroup from a long season. Two weeks of working out and then the holidays and vacations were upon me. I had a criminal trial in January that was a 12 hours/day seven days a week kind of thing. February I needed to start training for the Texas 70.s and IMTX. My OS might have been three weeks.
If I were you I would make getting faster the goal, being able to qualify will be any product. A good way to do that might be by NOT doing an IM every six months...
If that's your goal, plan a year around it...in your AG, you're gonna have to run closer to 1:30 than 1:50, hate to say. The good news is that following the EN plan WILL get you there. My own experience is last year, did 4 HIM's , one of which was Clearwater. Qualified in Augusta, 4th AG on rolldwon ( I'm 50-54). Kinda came out of nowhere, but looking back I steadily improved thru the year. Again, focus on HIM if that's your goal, with your stats, it should happen.
At IM KS 70.3, 10th place was 4:39 for 2008 and 2009 and 5:08 last year. (looks like all the times were slower...maybe hot?)
At IM TX 70.3, 10th place was 4:42 and 4:50
Your swim of ~34 min and bike of 2:35 are probably near where you want them to be, although every minute is a minute. A 1:40 run (and 4 minutes for transitions) gets you down to the 4:53 range. Running is clearly where there's the most to gain...although, as you point out, transitions are also "free" time.
I'm in 45-49 and came in 9th at Steelhead last year. Ironically, I could have gotten a (clearwater) slot if i had been YOUNGER but the first three guys took the available slots. At that race, I did a 34 swim, 2:30 bike, and 1:37 run. This year, I'm doing KS, which is a harder course. If I can hold that swim and bike split, and maybe cut the run by a few min (I ran an open 1:29 recently), it would be a great race....but I'm not counting on even that being enough.
I'd like to do the 70.3 WC some time, too. If by some miracle I qualified this year, I'd have to really think about it, though, since I'm already signed up for WI that same weekend!
No more IM's for this guy.