Can we apply the excellent work Matt S did on heat to training paces?
Great job Matt, by the way! Was just wondering if we can make use of this to tweak training run paces. For example, tomorrows plan calls for a 135 minute run with some Z3 intervals(2x12). My last test was done in March when it was cold, so Z3 is 8:07 with a vdot of 42. Tomorrow, when I get to do this run it will be 98 degrees. Given the impact on expected times Matt's work gave us, do we still hammer out the Z3 paces in the data tool? I might be able to do that, but it would probably shell me pretty bad. With RR#1 coming up 2 days later, does that make sense. Hopefully, IMLP won't be 98 degrees, so I don't really need to do it to acclimate to the heat. I know we batted this around some last summer and the sentiment was to break up the intervals, do longer recoveries, etc. But that was prior to Matt's work. Just wondering if anything has changed?
Thanks
Comments
The heat pace app is based on 10's of thousands of data points from IM races in various temps over the past decade. So the pace degradation projected is specific to that environment. Certainly, one should go slower in training in the heat, but how much ... ?
I do know two things: when I run the app for specific IMs I've done in the past, the pace projected for me was amazingly close: +/- 3 minutes for the total IM time either way! But when I did last week's RR #2 six mile run in 85F temp (first time I'd run in excess of 65 this year!), I was able to run about 45 sec per mile faster than the app projected. So I suspect it is not useful for adjusting training paces. I myself go on RPE + HR. In other words, I try to make myself FEEL the same effort wise in heat as I would on a cool day, and confirm that by seeing what happens to my HR at that slower pace. Below 85, my HR usually doesn't change; above about 87, the HR may start to rise.
I know Matt has done some awesome analysis of past results in heat and has some excel models but I didn't know it was this advanced.
I'm just going to swag it this afternoon and drop the prescribed zones by 1 and see how that works. Still slightly gimpy with a hamstring/piriformis issue and see no benefit in pushing hard in 98 degree temps. Would sure be nice to know how to deal with this from a "science says do this" standpoint. Al, I'll admit I don't know the specifics behind the heat model derived from 10's of thousands of data points, but I'm wondering if the difference you saw with predicted times on your RR was due to you following EN bike pacing versus the thousands that did not??
@ Dave - without going into the mathematical details (which I certainly don't understand), suffice it to say the model works better the faster you are - I suspect for that reason. Those who are "faster" in an IM are presuambly racing with a more EN like strategy, or they would not be as successful as they are.
@ Matt - Coach P and EN Tech guy are supposed to be working on getting the app onto the members' only side of the web site, so it will be accessible but not stealable. Matt S may still be in India now, so only ingtermittanly avaiable.