Run Pace for IMCDA - Help Needed
IMCDA will be my 4th IM. I've done the course 1X before. Prior IM marathons have been 4:44, 4:42 and a decent 4:21 at IMSG last year. vDot last tested was 49 but in the last 10 weeks I've been training at a vDot of 50. Z1/EP is 8:32. My WKO+ is busted and it is making up numbers for the downloaded Garmin 310XT data. Therefore, no idea what my Normalized Graded Pace is. Long Runs have all been average pace of 7:55 - 8:05. I've nailed every run since Day 1 of the plan. vDot range of 75-80% is wide - need to get a little more specific here.
From all of this I am SWAGing that my IM goal pace (after a 6 mile jog) is somewhere in the 8:30-8:50 range. I'd like to get advice from the EN Brain Trust on this before I do something stupid.
Thanks.
Comments
Jim - I don't want you to get too ambitious or optimistic. Here's my experience, based in part on advice from coaches and others.
For my last 4 IM marathons, my tested VDOT @ 5k races has been "49.6", and my training paces were often consistent with a VDOT of 50 or so. But I'd done a half marathon within six weeks before the IM, and my VDOT from that was more like 47. Coaches advised that's a better VDOT to use than the 5K based one. Coach P says "drop the VDOT about 2 points from your 5k test", and Coach R says, when asked directly whether I should use the 5K or 21 K VDOT, go with the lower one. So my LRP or EP is about 9:00 (a tick or two less)
Then, in the races themselves, depending on the temp, I can usually manage 9:15-9:45 overall, keeping a steady pace the whole way, ending with times in the range of 4:03-4:15.
So I advise starting out STUPIDLY conservative, no faster than 9:30, and seeing what happens after the first six miles. If you can go faster after that, fine. If you can hold, say, 9:07 after that the whole way, I would call it a hugely successful race. If you just keep going @ ;9:20-9:30, you'll still do an IM marathon PR by a long shot.
Finally, close to race day, we'll distribute temp-adjusted times based on predicted race-day temp. If it's going to be above about 70F, we'll have to slow down, whether we want to or not.
@ Al - Great advice. Thanks. I'd like to drill the last 10K. I'm also interested in how to mentally break-down this Run course. I did it in 2008. Minor changes to the route but I'd like to get this thing mentally pieced out so I can manage each segment.
T2 to Neighborhood Streets
Main Highway to Little Hill / Ford Mile
Run Lakeshore
Big Hill Up
Turnaround
In prior years the turn around was partially up the big hill. This year, as you know, you will go up and over the big hill and down a decline for what seems a long ways before the turn around. The length of time and distance that you trot down the decline after climbing the hill, all the while knowing that a return trip is awaiting could play games with the minds of those less than prepared.
After riding it a number of times over the past few weeks, I think the change could impact run times fairly significantly.
@ Al - Do you know how long the big hill is? And how far after the hill does it take to get to the new turnaround? Thanks.