248 TSS Earned In a 5:10 Ride...What To Race At?
So in my race simulation ride on Friday, I rode 30' easy (.61 IF) and then spent 4.5 hours aiming for about 240 Watts on the dial. 260 on longer hills, and capping short hills at 280. My FTP on my road bike is about 330, and putting that into my Joule for the sim gives me an IF of .685 when, according to our power charts, I could go up to .74.
So I am assuming that my FTP on the tri bike is about 320 right now, so that changes my "earned" FTP to about .7. Regardless, I am leaving a lot on the table.
That said, I have plans to put in a monster run on race day, aiming for a 3:15 which would be an 11' personal best on the course. So I kinda need the "rest" on the bike to be ready.
So my question to you is this....should I:
- continue to be very happy with a 5:10 ride on .7 and roll with that on race day en route to a solid run?
- aim for 250 on the dial to end up closer to 240 on the dial...and then run as I know I am ready.
I need about a 9:45 to be in contention....which works out to be about a 1:00, 5:20, 3:20...give or take.
I'd love your input!!!! Thanks,
Patrick
Comments
Practice what you preach!!!
Race like a ninja...you know you can do a 5:10 bike with the .7 and that sets you up for a strong run. The idea is that he who slows down the least during the run gets a trip to Kona in October. Running is your strength, so "save" your legs to crush that run. The gamble of upping your TSS on the bike is not worth blowing it on the run. Go into the run knowing that you have more legs than you need as opposed to the little engine who said "I think I can, I think I can" for 26.2 miles.
Relax, let the race come to you on race day, all the second guessing in the world will not change the outcome.
Ebe
coachP:
looks to me like at most IM races the top 15 age group spots are pretty solid all around.
at almost every race, you can't really base things on the times of the year before because each year people get faster.
i'd say play it by ear during the race. you know the time you are capable of, so:
if you swim 1:00, then bike to what you know will put in for a 3:15run;
if you swim a 1:07, then bike to that higher bike number that you mention (which is still in your box);
the run will be you final ooportunity to meet or surpass your target time.
i think this approach will make for a fun and challenging day. if any jive turkey goes faster than you, then good for them, but at least you'll know that you raced to your limits.
good luck!
gh
With your goals, you have to be willing to take on some level of risk. I'm assuming (a) your run training is rock solid, (b) you are very skilled in power control at all times on the bike (your ref to shifting every 30 sec in another thread), (c) you have excellent restraint in the first 40-50 minutes on both the bike and run.
So, if I was coaching you, I'd say: First of all, be very sure of your TT FTP; that's your first critical decision. If it requires a test, so be it. Second, the first 40-50 minutes on the bike are at 0.65. After that, it's at 0.725, building from 0.7 to 0.73+ by the end. Third, be prepared to go somewhere very, very dark in the last nine miles of the run. No thoughts in that last hour, just all out effort.
Coach P,
Here's my quick analysis and as Gilberto stated times get faster as well as conditions can change from year to year. I'd also agree with Al that you need to take some strategic risk. As pointed out how sure are you of the 320 FTP (you say 'assuming') this needs to be a very solid number otherwise go with the 5:10 and what you have produced on the RR.
If the 320 is rock sold the green zone is 268-283 TSS and 291 for Top AG racers (which is what you are aiming for). So bumping up the IF and TSS as Al indicated if you feel good is the risk you have earned the right to take.
As for last year there were 355 in the 35-39 out of 2611 finishers. 9th place finished in 9:56:4X and 8th in 9:52.so assuming similar number to last year that 13.6% of the Kona slots. or 8.8 slots in your AG. Your 1:00, 5:20: 3:20; puts you right in the hunt for 6th place in 2010 or right on the edge given a decrease in finish times of 5-7 minutes over last years times .
So a 1:00, 5:10, 3:15 (T's of 8 minutes) = 9:33 will probalby get you to Kona. Can you run the 3:15-3:20 off a .72 and lower the 5:10 I would say yes on a good day given you previous run performances. Again it's worth some strategic risk if you feel good as Al and Tom pointed out.
Also remember Matt S's heat index if it happens to be very hot, not typical for LP I know but definitely a factor for the run times. Slow down and let the competition melt away in the last 1/2 of the marathon. If it's a monsoon you've already practised that in you RR.
Finally practise the transitions. The top nine guy last year had t1's in the 3:58-5:28 range and t2's 1:49-2:47. There are a couple minutes or more to be lost in transition, spend your taper going over your transitions for free time.
Good luck Coach I'll be out there to cheer you on.
Gordon
I did not do the research on this myself but I was told recently by an actually smart person that pretty much no one at LP rides under 5:12, even on the new faster course. The old one that number was 5:15. Talking about very solid riders, guys like, well, you. Assuming that is true you are not going to ride sub 5:10 on 225 watts. You certainly should not go into it thinking that will be an easy thing to do. You should aim to ride .74 with apx TSS of 283 if my IM pace chart is worth anything. You should be able to run just fine on that. I am not a fan of the "wait til mile" whatever plan as it is too easy to take the easier route at that point. No thinking, just execution. Thinking is always a bad call, especially a few hours into an IM. Be the ball, be the man.
Any how did you lose 20 watts on your FTP in the last few months? If you are sandbagging/being ultra conservative than you shoudl really aim at the higher number.
Chris makes a great point and I actually looked up the times for last year again. Getting below 5:10 is insanely difficult. There was one sub 5:10 in the M30-34 and this guy finished in 9:18; no sub 5:10 bikes in the 35-39 or 40-44. An extra note there were only 4 pro males to go sub 5 (two 4:37-38) and Petr Vabrousek running a sub 3 hour marathon (bike 4:49, 2:53 run).
m30-34 5:04 bike 3:11 run 9:18 total time
M34-39 5:13 bike 3:13 run total 9:34 2nd in AG
5:15 bike 3:18 run total 9:40 4th AG
5:14 bike 3:25 run total 9:47 6th AG
5:11 bike 3:22 run total 9:55 9th AG
All these guys swam around 1 hour except the 9th place guy who did 1:14
I'm not sure how far you have pushed the TSS in the past, given this second look the 283 is probably where you will need to be for the risk reward. Dial it back too much and you will be hoping for a slow year or a rolldown slot. Set the IF before and push the watts then execute like a ninja.
Gordon
OK, went and looked at the results myself. 5:10 would be a monster bike split. Not sure what the 35-39 course record is but think you might have a shot at it with a sub 5:10. Last year, the first year with the new/faster bike course was on about a perfect weather day. Good temps, about as little wind as could be hoped for.
4 Pros rode under 5 hours the slowest of who went 9:08
one female pro rode 5:07 [she was the winner] with the next fastest woman pro riding 5:25
Tim Snow was 5th OA and he rode 5:12.
-Under 24 there was one guy that ride sub 5:30
-25-29 there were 5 guys under 5:20
-30-34 there was one guy that rode 5:04 and another who rode 4:57, no one else under 5:18.
-35-39 4 guys under 5:20, best split was 5:11:58 for the guy that finished 9th [and likely did not get a slot]
-40-44 3 guys under 5:20 - best was 5:14
-45-49 3 under 5:20 - best was 5:12
As for the AG women, one [29 year old] rode 5:25 and there were only 4 that broke 5:45.
Notes:
I would tend to echo what Al says. There is some risk given your goals, so you're likely to have to do a little gambling to make sure you qualify. IMO, the key is to assess the risks and pick the one that is most conservative, but is still likely to get you to that goal.
If it were me, I'd consider the following:
After considering these points, I'd make the decision. If you think you can push slightly harder on the bike without sacrificing what you know you can do in the run, then if that effort translates into a faster overall time, there's your choice. BUT, if you think you'll sacrifice run quality OR you think that if you stick to the plan on the bike, but can push the marathon a little harder and make up the same or more time, I'd stay with .7 and gamble on the marathon.
The hardest part for me has been the year off from the accident plus this years run fitness (1:24 half, 3:01 Boston, 1:26 HIM run, etc.). So my run has improved, and I look forward to taking advantage of it. Reviewing my execution, it has been exactly as Al mentioned...easy first 30-40 minutes, then building over the rest of the day. I plan to follow that protocol and be as slippery as I possibly can on race day. This will be my first Placid with a disc and an 808, so I am pumped to stay aero as much as possible.
Thanks for helping me geek out!!!
Lots of great stuff here. Neat discussion. Can't offer much on the numbers that will add any value, but would make a few additional notes on execution, and talk out of both sides of my mouth:
Great comments Dave. I'm not sure Dev will be in LP as he had a serious crash in an IM in Europe I believe. Sorry I can't remember which one. If you can get his expertise that would be great.
Gordon