Predict/Prescribe my WI split
(Trying to get these questions out of my system before the taper when my judgement will be REALLY clouded. Now, it's just slightly impaired.)
I’m trying to get an idea of where I might expect to come off the bike in WI. So far, I have it narrowed down to “after Rich, Matt S and Matt A, and before cutoff.”
Selected data points. So many moving parts.
-5:25 at CdA, 2 months ago. But if I had to be brutally honest, how I felt on the run makes me think I might have overextended myself by about 3-5% on that ride. Not overextend as in Game Over, Shutdown, Hit Reboot, but the difference between feeling great during the run and feeling like I was working. (run fitness that days sez’ I shoulda done a 3:30 run on that course, actually did a 3:35 (3:36? Can’t remember)).
-About 3-5lbs lighter today, guessing I’ll be a total 7 lbs lighter on WI race day.
-a lot more riding since CdA: hard, long, hills, flats, tt, all types and flavours.
-Recent results from a few of my favorite hard workouts that I do late each season (crucible 3-hour and 3.5-hour sessions, more or less the same flat/mod hilly route) are putting me at roughly same bike fitness I had for a 5:02 IMAZ a few years ago, where I ran to potential on run fitness of the day. But I coasted a lot, which I don't get to do at WI.
-should be three-and-smaller-change w/kg on race day.
-Hearing the advice coming from the WI camp, I will be executing EN-smart style, no-coasting. Pretty good at cornering and finding free time / speed on a course.
-normal IM for me is executed at 190 for 30’, 200 for remainder of race, on a ballpark race day FTP of 270 watts, with an IF .74.
-FTP testing between now and WI is probably not going to give great information – there’s a lot of fatigue that I’m carrying around. But I have a few sessions that include 2 x 20 (5’) and if I feel great, I might make it an impromptu test.
Major goal of race is to be able to run to full potential.
Questions:
-What could I expect at WI based on above?
-Or, setting aside the "major Goal" above, if I were to game it, what should I ride? IOW, if I were to execute the bike as hot or a little bit hotter than CdA, but was doing so on better overall fitness, all while knowing that it could cost me, say, 5 mins on the run and a feeling of easy comfortable execution versus pushing for 3.5h, would it be worth it in overall finish time? So I guess the calculation is the net result: would, say, five minutes and one second faster on the bike, be worth the cost of a 5 minute slower run and some risk?
(I’ll probably post a similar set of questions about gaming the run as a single tactic in a separate post).
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Comments
2. I don't think IMWI is a course to game it on the bike, especially if you haven't done the race before. Rich may be willing to do this, but I'm not. It may just be that I'm a conservative guys when I still have 26.2 more miles to go.
My thought is that you are overthinking this (like we all tend to do, myself included). The weather, i.e. temp and wind, can be highly varibale at IMWI and can even change drastically during the day. Prefect day weather, vs hot and humid like it has been this year, vs cold and rainly, like many septembers can easily swing your time by 10 minutes. Therefore for someone like you (or me) that have a pretty good idea at what kind of power we can and should hold for ironman, I think there is little value in guessing your time.
Sorry, I know that was not exactly the response you were looking for, so hopefully others will give you their thoughts as well.
I would stick with exacltly what you said:
Whether you guess your time as 5:05 or 5:25, I don't see the above changing much.
I personnally re-evaluate at two points on the course. Old PB and Whalen at the start of the second loop (56 mile mark) and then again when leaving cross plains on the second loop which is maybe mile 82ish. At those two points I make a game day decision based on how I feel and weather conditions. If you feel great and the weather is good, then kick it up a little for the second half or last quarter of the ride. I would not try to game it on the first loop, just not worth the potential risk if the weather changes.
I agree with Matt. You, and we, have a long history of IM rides and therefore know what watts we can/can not back up with a good run. FTP +/- may affect that and you can use that adjust those "what watts have worked in the past" up down after an honest assessment of where we are.
The key for IMWI is how we turn those watts on the dial into Pnorm watts and then into Pavg watts. As a frame of reference, I rode a 5:11 in '04 on 208w Pavg. If I were to guess, I'd say my FTP was ~290w then and I weighed about 158lb. Ran a disk, Hed3 front, no aero helmet, bottles in rear cages, etc. Bike fit was very good.
But I rode with a VI of 1.08 = 225w Pnorm, went out too hard the first half (231w Pnorm, I think) and suffered at the end. It was a hot day (~87, I think) and I launched a bottle on the train tracks in Cross Plains at mile ~85. Next aid station wasn't for >10 miles so I grabbed 3-4 bottles at the last aid station and tried to play catch up on the ride back into town. Didn't work so well, bad cramps on the run and limped in to a 10:35.
You can do your own math on the physics of a 208w Pavg on that course equaling a 5:11, given my w/kg, setup, etc. More importantly...1.08 VI was just plain dumb. I'm absolutely sure that 95% of the folks out there are riding north of 1.08-1.10 so putting a lot of hurt on themselves unneccesarily. So the key is to let the Pnorm that you know works for you create the Pavg that gets you around the course the fastest. That method, as you know, is a low VI and at Wisconsin that comes from:
Don't worry, when you get out there on the bike with your smart guy hat on, you'll see how the course flows and you'll get it very quickly. The key is to look at the terrain you're on now and keep your head up to see what's coming next. You'll get it.
The run, with the exception of Observatory drive, is mostly flat. Certainly nothing like the extended hill(s) at the very far end of the CDA course, the worse place for them. The first 6 miles are also very vanilla and let you get your head and your game on before you get to work.
You can expect to be looking at my ass all the way.
Seriously though, I think our numbers will end up being pretty similar.
Your post is loaded and to be honest, seems like you may be trying to hard to find the "magic number". You probably already know the answers to your own questions, or at least are in the best position to know based on all the experience and your current state of fitness. I say make an educated guess and execute, adjusting as necessary based on feel.
Dave - I think your paid coaches have the right/best advice (natch!). Rich sez: take full advantage of both your aero setup and position, and execute with full attention to maintaining effort on the non-uphill portions of the course. Patrick: an IF of 0.7 building to 0.73 is probably your best zone. Do those things, and your bike time will take care of itself.
As to what that time might be, just for dealing with anticipatory anxiety? My opinion is that the CDA and WI courses are, while not identical twins, at least close siblings, like the Schlecks or Brownlees. I guess a 5:25 is a good expectation, assuming your actual race day FTP is higher in Sept than it was in June due to continued training.
Two little things to have in the back of your mind for the end of the bike and run courses. The lollipop bike course ends in an "L" to the east then north (more or less). You may catch a break if there is a wind anywhere from west to south, or need to fight that wind if it's opposite. On the run, by 4:30 PM, the sun will be starting to hide behind the trees and the shade on most of the course, giving you a little break on the end to help you maximize your effort in the final 10K.
So quickly playing around with this site: http://bikecalculator.com/veloMetric.html
Craig, is that .01 in w/kg or .01 in IF = 2'?
The former sounds very big and the later sounds very small, in my opinion.
The latter. Definitely a rough order of magnitude thing - I didn't try get all OCD with splitting the course up into different segments, etc. (figured Dave would do that - lol).
How about our own pacing guidance, the time/TSS/IF matrix called Legs Bank Account?
Just to pick one TSS #, 300, from the "Legs Bank Account" TSS table for IM racing, @ IF=75%, you're going 5:30, and @ 70%, you're going 6:10. Pick another, at the lower end of gearing, 265. @ 75%, you're going 4:40; @ 70%, abut 5:25.
I think that's the source of Rich's feeling of disbelief. I share that, based on my own personal data bank of races @ various IFs.
Al, not sure if this is what you mean, but that chart isn't a "if you ride this IF, this will be your bike split." It's simply "if you sit on the bike for 5:30 at an IF of .73, you'll accumulate 285 TSS points (totally making that up).
Just saying that .01 IF = ~3w (for me), so the difference between .7 and .75 IF = ~15w and about 10' per this calculator. But in my experience, 15w > 10' delta for a 112 mile ride.
But...whatever...it's a calculator so who knows.
How much (SWAG) do you think it should be? I definitely defer to your two guys' expertise - I just want it explained so that it adheres to the laws of physics.
Craig, no swag, my gut was just surprised by the number. But I have zero experience with these calculators. I prefer to focus on details of race execution and let the final numbers sort themselves out.
@Dave, suggest you use Matt's IF/TSS spreadsheet to model your pacing strategy. Makes it very easy to commit to riding very easy for the first hour or more, then getting to work.
I'll start a thread in the WI forum asking Matt how he breaks the course up. I have my own thoughts on that but haven't aligned them to how I want to pace the bike across the day.
@CoachP: Recall that it was geekery that helped create or refine many EN protocols.
Craig,
I promise I'll drink lots of water and will now think of you each time I piss myself, full aero, while pedaling
18 posts in the thread. THIS PLACE IS AWESOME. Thanks for the input, all. A think the look and feel of this thead is it is going a long way in saving me from myself: this is the first IM that I'm racing with specific finish time in my mind, so the whole split calculation thing was something I wanted to get out of my system early in the discussion.
Thinking further on pacing strategy or ride benchmarks, I probably have to take a hard look at execution and my expectations of fatigue based on what a slightly more agressive ride is going to cause. I LOVE my coasting - I must have had about 15' at AZ with zero watts - but I'm pretty sure the approach that Rich has been talking up wince the WI Camp is going to be where the money is on that day. So, as an approach of maintaining speed from one terrain feature to another is going to make me rethink what my normal bank of watts and beats will be at the end of the race, the broad strokes strategy will be to dial things back until well into lap 2, and even then, if I decide to flip a switch from 'normal execution' to 'push it a bit,' I'll probably be applying that on climbs only.
IT here to fix my computer. More to come.
This is a course that, with your w/kg, you can ride up pretty much anything at only 10% over your goal watts and then stay on the gas on the other side. So a low VI is very possible. I rode a 1.04 without being totally dialed in the first hour. Matt has ridden 1.03. There are 3-4 hills/pops where you "might" have to go up to GW + 20%. Likewise, the opportunities for coasting aren't all that long and you can nearly always see the terrain that's coming up.
Lastly, when you get out on the course you'll see just how badly everyone else is riding. This is a VI > 1.10 course for all but the most disciplined. So very, very easy for you to bank 15-20w Pnorm less than guys doing the same Pavg as you. That should be very encouraging.
I know you love your coasting, but at the pointy end you are giving up 5-10' of time on the bike for that. It's not all work though...many times your coasting at 30+ mPH could be you soft-pedalling at 150W but extending that 500ft long 30+ MPH window by another 250ft. Do that a lot on a rolling course like WI and you "get" lots of time bonuses.
Hell at LP I was so obsessed that I didn't even coast when peeing...I stood up and kept pedalling.
I think you are nearing full readiness...pumped for you to crush it!