Temperature Impacted Race Pace Predictor (TIRP).
This thread is to provide an avenue for feedback and questions on the EN Temperature Impacted Race Pace Predictor (TIRP).
The thread to the calculator is here members.endurancenation.us/Resource...fault.aspx
Please take time to read the instructional pdf and the FAQ section within. Hopefully this document gave you the information needed to use TIRP and arrive at race day run pacing guidance. PDF www.box.net/shared/j93pr4uc6xgcnjgjrgmq
Post questions on comments on how to use this tool here for discussion within the team. I and others from the development team will help answer on specific questions on TIRP. Also questions captured and answered here will find there way in to updates of the instructions and FAQ’s.
Best of execution to all! Take the race day edges where ever you can find them. This is one your competition does not have!
Matt
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Comments
I just ran the numbers for IMLP and your calculator paced me to 4:17:07...... I actually ran 4:17:50
Nuff said?
WOW.....
Steve, I will go back to the data and the curves and see if I can find that 0.28% difference!!
http://www.sportsscientists.com/search/label/heat
@ Michael – Good comment / observation. My intilal outline for the application had that factor - but.................................
The research you reference was in the review process with the team in the app development. Thank you for pointing to that for the rest of the EN team. What we saw was that he impact of weight shows up in two ways. One it impacts your vDOT. The Daniels table used shows that if one loses X lb they will pick up Y seconds in pace capability. So the assumption is that our vDOT entered into the app has the basic element of weight factored into the equation. What is left is body mass. Your could weigh 160 lb and be 6”2” or 5” 6”. We had no way to segment results based on body mass. So that is why the comment in based on body type and cooling factors. Smaller bodies have a cooling advantage over larger bodies with everything else being equal.
The team discussed a update ( v1.02) for the application that did give guidance based on weight / body mass , but that data will need to be accumulated for our team as it exists no where else.
I'll post comment here that I made on the Google docs sheet earlier:
1. My suggested intro:
“This calculator will guide you in how much to slow down to avoid eventually walking when expected race day temperatures will be above 60-65F.
HOW TO USE
First, the day before your race, go to [link to weather.com], and search for your race locale (e.g, Louisville, KY). Then, click on “Tomorrow”. To the right of “Hourly Forecast”, click on “more details”. At the bottom of that page, use the “next” link to find the page with the hours of the the race (e.g., 2 thru 8 PM). Record the hourly projected temperature and humidity.
Then, simply fill in the boxes in the calculator below with those projections. Finally, key in your VDOT. Hit Enter, and the line “Heat Impacted Pace” will give you hour-by-hour guidance for your run pace.”
2. Also, while surfing around, I found that weather.com gives hourly projections temp and humidity predictions for the next 48 hours. Meaning as early as Friday evening before a Sunday race, one could search there for hour-by-hour predicted temps, an upgrade to the every 2-3 hours from wunderground. I know our data came from the latter, but does it really make that much difference? If we advised using weather.com, then folks looking for the simplest solution wouldn’t have to worry about extrapolation, And the truly obsessed could always check multiple sites to cross-check predictions.
3. Several paragraphs which might find a home in the FAQs:
• Remember, quite literally, YMMV (Your Mileage May Vary). The temperature predictions may not play out. There may be more or less sun than expected. Your bike may have taken more (or less) out of you than expected. On very warm and hot days, though this calculator will give you a good idea of just how much you’ll need to slow down to race “EN style”.
• After analyzing the effect of temperature and humidity on actual marathon times in North American IM races over the past decade (over 150,000 individual perfomances!), it is now possible to predict just how much elevated temperatures will degrade your ability to maintain a goal pace.
• The primary thing we have learned is that, like it or not, you WILL go slower than your VDOT predictions when the temperature goes up. This is mainly do to the need to keep your body core temperature within safe limits, and to maintain adequate fluid intake to stave off dehydration as long as possible.
Awesome.
I just posted my one and only IM results from 2010 IMKY. I think my data will be useful in the body,size,shape,weight discussion. Also how is BMI calculated?
Nice work and thanks Tim,
I have a quick question, are we entering temperature or the real feel temperature? Some sites give the temp and real feel which can be significantly different. thanks for all the work on this.
Dave
Dave I strongly recommend using data from wunderground.com for your climate data. As explained in the instructions you enter normal temperature and the dew point temperature for each hour you will be on the bike course. The app calculates the Schoen Heat Index which is what all the history and curves are based on.
right over my head but thanks Matt.
All I have a TX HIM coming up in Dallas on 9/11. Have been preparing for the expected 100 degree day. When I download the PDF and try to click on the TIRP link, I am not getting to the calculator. Is there another step I need to follow?
Thanks,
SS
Thanks Steve!
Ahhhhh. got it! These guys have out done themselves on the model!
SS
This is a members-only, only on the website sorta tool, in deference to the incredible work that Matt and the others involved with this project did, and to preserve this as a significant competitive advantage of the EN athlete.
That certainly makes sense. This really is an incredible advantage, and the work that was done really creative and valuable. I'll just need to make sure to use it before I head out away from internet access. I know if I'd had this for my last two Vineman's I'd have done a lot better on the run. Combined with the racing with power guidnace for the bike, EN has something unique.
It doesn't appear to work for me but then I've always managed to run well in the heat. I typically only see about a 5% difference between ideal/perfect conditions and ~95* dry heat. Places like Kona where it's humid and mid 80s have little to no impact on my performance. Of course, I just jinxed myself. ;-)
I still think it's a cool and useful calc though...
Not sure what to think. I think those individual idiosyncrasies have come into play here.
---Ann.
Just as there is not one training plan which fits all needs, this Heat App is a generic product, based on the actual time degradations averaged over all participants in scores of IMs. Peole will always be at either end of the bell shaped curve. Both Ann and Chris have enough personal experience running IM marathons to know what THEY are capable of. If one does NOT have that experience, the odds are good the heat app will help you. If it makes you go slower than you want, by all means, pick it up after mile 18. For me, the heat app is eerily precise at describing my times from various hot, warm and downright cool IMs I did BEFORE the thing was ever created.
Of course, an alternative theory (which I strongly DOUBT) is that you two are under perrforming at normal WA and ON temperatures!
Perfect for me is probably high 60s to low 70s. And I will probably run better in 80* vs 45* to give you a sense of how well I can run in heat.
I agree. I'm pretty small (5'1", 120 lbs) and it's not uncommon for my SO (6'2", 210lbs) to complain about the heat after a workout when I didn't even really notice it.