OUCH - Age Impact on IM times.
CAUTION – this can be depressing information read at your own risk.
For the over 50 team it is no surprise that getting faster is hard work. The EN training and execution approach can make a huge difference on race day. Age can bring added wisdom and race experience which often can deliver amazing performances when the young or inexperienced players crumble in hard conditions.
The other impact of age is on the overall work level that our body can sustain for an IM event. As we get older we get slower. (Boy that sucks)
I wanted to get a rough sense of age impact on IM times so I went to the web and found the 2009 Kona qualifying times. http://www.runtri.com/2009/08/quali...times.html
This set of data included 510 Kona Qualifiers and the following IM events FL,WI,AZ,LP,CA,CD. So this data is for a range of courses with different conditions. I assumed these times would be a reasonable representation of high level performances for each age group. I took the data and did a simple average for each age group. Next, I calculated the delta of the times for each age group compared to the professional’s. The following graphs show how the time deltas increase with age.
Age 50 is when is appears that age starts to impact times significantly. This information helps the competitive side of me deal with those awesome vDOT and FTP numbers of some of our younger team members.
On this years’ Kona TV broadcast I heard them comment that the current best guess of how old can one be and still finish in the 17 hr cutoff is 82. I’m confident that one day an EN member will prove them wrong.
Matt
In the EN House we focus on vDOT and FTP numbers, so how do these change with age?
Using the average times from the above we can back into some numbers. To obtain estimates for vDOT, I used the double top secret Ironman Pacing Chart. I entered into the chart using the 80% column. I figure to quality for Kona you are hitting it on all cylinders. So finding vDOT levels for the average age group times produces the following:
To determine approximate FTP levels, I used a on line triathlon time calculator. I normalized it for a know wattage level on a know course for a actual time. Once I had this in place, I just varied the input watts to find the needed level to hit the average age group times. I assumed a male weighed 160 Lb, and a female weight 120 Lbs. Obviously these are just estimates and are impacted by aerodynamics many other elements with wind being a prime example. The intent was to see the approximate FTP levels for these average qualifying times and how the change with age. The following charts are the results:
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Comments
"Age-grade me, baby! " I look pretty good when you do that!
Wow, Matt, that's awesome. Thanks! If you ask me, it just makes us look even more hard-core and kewl.
I always wonder how you men fare in the testosterone fest that rages here at times. It didn't used to be that way here, but there is more of it this OS than ever before. I always wondered if you guys get sucked in to all of that. I can ignore it, but I think it can lead to counterproductive training decisions to "keep up." It's different with the women here by far. No slacking, but the support has a waaay different flavor. Just remember, some of the guys with the really high Vdots et al, are 29 or 30s. Then again, there's the outlier Steve Chavez--every team needs one of those!
I just have to hang on to age 60, keep rockin' it EN style, and I'm going to shoot for Kona! No there's a long-term goal.
I posted this in the other link, but will re-post here in case it's of interest--Staying A Step Ahead of Aging. The best way to preserve what we have is to keep training EN style. Doesn't that make you feel good? We're a a step ahead of many others. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/31/health/nutrition/31BEST.html?pagewanted=print
@ scott,
Yep, sitting with my legs up after this mornings run - ouch - and watching football! So I figured it was time to understand why I'm not as fast as 20 years ago. Oh the good old days
Ok, from the Finance guy in the house....
First, Matt this is great data. I can't help but wonder, however, if there is still a light at the end of the tunnel? By this I mean, does the slope of the line gradually flatten every 5 - 10 years as we see more and more athletes training earlier and smarter with time? If you took the snapshot of the same data for 2004 would we see a material slope increase earlier than 50? 5 years from now, will we see the slope at age 50 flatten a bit? Just thinking out loud......that usually gets me in trouble.
SS
Matt -
Thanks for taking the time to feed your computer do all these data, and for your effort to format the results for us. It is provocative, for sure.
About 3 years ago, as I comtemplated what my goals might be when I became sixty (I had just boasted to someone after I went 11:55 at CDA at age 57 that I wanted to "break 12 hours when I turned sixty"), I did a similar, but much less sophisticated analyisis, looking at winning times from North American IM races from 2002-2006 for AGs 50-69. I discovered that there was a wide range around the slope of the curve, but that, in general, times seemed to go up about 40 minutes each AG, or 8 minutes per year. In the range we are talking about (600-780 minutes), this is over a 1% slowdown per year, which is consistent with the rate of slowing for older men in longer running races (marathons). I used winning times, not HQ times, because from 60 on up, it's "win or go home."
In three of the six races you studied, the qualifying time for Hawaii was slower than the winning time, due to roll-downs. In a fourth, a 59.7 y/o (me) beat the 60-64 time by 50 minutes, and went on the race in Hawaii in 09 as a 60-64 y/o. Looking at winning times only, plus my AZ 08 time, the 60-64 AG average time was 11:30. Looking at the 55-59 y/o winning times only, their avg was 10:30, pretty much confirming your increasing rate of rise. Not a good sign for us over-sixty's.
Now let me shift to the real issue here: Is this what we OFs have to look forward to? I don't think so. For one thing, remember the demographics. Compared to 1930-1946, the years 1947-1964 produced a MUCH HIGHER number of people, thus a larger genetic pool from which to draw, and more likelihood there will be at least 5 really good IM racers in each age cohort. The oldest Boomers are now 63, and the largest cohorts are about 10-15 years younger, or just entering the over fifty brackets now. Second, as others have suggested, evolved knowledge about training and racing will spread to more people, so there will be fewer people WALKING part of the marathon, which accounts for most of the big drop offs in the run times seen after age 60 (up to 70) - this is based on my personal observation as I pass them in the last 10 miles. Most of the people I pass can run faster than I, they just don't know how to race - or more precisely, they don't have the courage to race as they know they should.
Here's what I believe is possible: if you have less than 5 years of triathlon specific training under your belt and/or are doing your 1st or 2nd IM - and you train and race with EN principles - you can expect to improve or at least maintain your IM time over the next 5-10 years no matter what your age. If you are a vet, e.g., more than 10 years triathlons and/or more than 6 IMs, you should slow down about 1% per year, up to age 70.
I'm moving back my "break 12 hours" target from age 60 to age 65.
BTW, the age 82 referred to in the Kona broadcast was in reference to Hawaii only, based on recent winning times there in AGs 60+; presumably, someone 85 or over someday will be able finish a race like Arizona or Roth.
Vince
Very thought provoking. Thank goodness for smart folks like yourself. But since triathlon is a lifestyle, and one I am not likely to give up any time soon, I hope to force that graph to go out much further.
I am currently reading Slackonomics. It is about Gen X mostly, but also about feminism. So far, I find much of it applicable to me. As a female I grew up playing team sports. It never occurred to me that this was "new". My very non athletic mother encouraged it. Consequently, I have not suffered from a lack of self confidence in the sporting arena. As we take it for granted that we can do this (any sport really). I think there will be more women in the future coming up. I cheer them on. But now, just seeing the older demographic for women still representing at races really amazes me ( I am talking over 60).
Thank you for sharing.
Al, I agree that there will continue to be incremental improvements in OF performances, that is less of a slowdown than has occurred in prior years. Your point about the large group of boomers that are aging up is real. The bigger the number of people in the mix the higher probability that there will be performances that are significantly above the averages.
One of the down sides to using averages of data is just that, it is an average. It the case of performance, the average numbers can mask the higher performance levels that are achieved at each age group level. So how did the fastest runners perform out of this data set? Below is the fastest run times for the Ironman qualifiers each of the events. Also shown is an updated vDOT graph with the corresponding vDOTs for the fastest runs . There is a 5-9 vDOT pickup over the averages. Note that these vDOTs are all assuming the 80% FT level, as one moves to the 75% FT level, you will need an additional 3-4 vDOT points to achieve the times.
Matt -
Having passed thru 55-59, and qualifying for Kona 3 times within those 5 years, I'll give my own experience, FWIW. I didn't start to qualify until I started running the whole way (or more precisely, walking each and every aid station, and running the rest of the way.) The first time, I was 56.5, @ IM WI, in 98F heat. This ended up being my slowest IM time ever, but my highest overall finish. I seriously negative split the run by something over ten minutes, as I ran faster after my eyeballs stopped melting when the sun went down. Next year, I "qualified" at CDA at age 57 (already had a slot), in 92 + heat. I ran past 5 guys to get first place, the last guy having passed out on someone's front lawn for 30 minutes, so I never saw him! in 08 in AZ, I got passed at mile 11 by someone, then re-passed him at mile 13 when he started to slow, and then passed another guy at mile 25.5, beating him by 9 seconds for another Kona slot at age 59.5.
My points here are two: First, DONT assume that age 55 is your only chance to qualify - I did it at 56.5, 57, and 59.5. Second, and much more important, the EN race strategy is THE TRUTH. Talking to others in my AG after the race (while waiting for awards), it's evident that people I end up passing on the run can both bike and run faster than I can in stand alone races or TTs. But I can out-race them just by following a few simple rules about pacing. My last 4 IM marathons have been 4:06, 4:05, 4:08, and 4:03, while doing 20:15 5Ks in the winter. Even though I seem to win the race on the run, in actuality (as we all know), working hard to raise my bike FTP, and then pacing those 112 miles correctly are actually more important, and my weak link/limiter at this time.
As to your numbers and charts - WOW, and thanks.
@ Matt- totally cool look at the numbers...thanks. Strategizing in my "grey matter" as I age up next year to 45-49, but will race at age 44! Still need serious work to be in contention. CDA this year will be SERIOUS measuring stick.
@Al - really appreciate your perspective on the numbers. Experience is a major trump card and you play it well. Have to agree with you 110% about EN Way....IT WORKS!
Holy ouch indeed - and for some of us who were NEVER fast this is even worse news. My numbers make the Female 55 chart seem more applicable. But then again, at my size I could almost make weight to jump on Zenyatta for a quick trip at Churchill. All we can do is to keep keeping on - at whatever speed we generate - and know that there are tons of folks out there who cannot or would not get fit. I ran into the "Irongeezer" at IMAZ and he seemed fit and happy for 74. I am happy to be old, slow and back home an Ironman! For now! But Al's comments make it clear to me that I can get faster. Will work on raising my bike FTP and pacing. Outseason - here I come (in about a month).