re: my IM Texas run plan
Alright...first off, I have always been a HUGE proponent of following the team's advice, and the coachs' plans. So, I ask this question partly as a 'talking myself off a ledge' tool, but, also to make sure I am mentally prepared for what I need to be doing as we approach these last few weeks of training leading up to IM Texas.
I have an OUTSIDE shot at a Kona slot, I think. If the swim goes fairly well, and the bike goes the same, I think I can possibly run my way into a 9:50ish (call it sub 10) IM. In my 30-34 age group, that MIGHT be enough, depending on who shows up.
So, here is my question...is there any reason or time it becomes 'okay' to alter the initial ELP+30"/mile protocol for the initial 6 miles of the IM marathon? I am not sure I can pick that 6 minutes up later in the run, but I hate to let that 6 minutes go so early on. My ELP+15" for the first 6 and my ELP for the duration would put me around a 3:25, call it 3:30 by the time I walk the aid stations. If I nail the bike, I HOPE I may be able to get a few seconds back with a VERY slight push towards the end (and I say very slight because I know/understand that pushing at the end of a 140.6 is rarely going to happen).
At any rate...with that run split, it is 'possible'. I KNOW there is a pending 'heat bomb' when we are talking about Texas, and I will be monitoring the weather and altering my run using the EN Heat Calc...but I wanted to throw this out there to collect thoughts.
(My only other IM experience is CdA last year, where the cold had me dry-heaving in the water and I lost all my nutrition on the bike due to shivering for the first 35 miles. Then, by the time I finally thawed out, I was exhausted from the 2 hours of shivering, and I struggled to even have any kind of race that I had originally planned - ended up with 11 hours. So, I didn't feel I had a good shot at IM; I didn't get to screw it up for myself and I didn't get to do it right. It was just a bad set of circumstances for me. I feel pretty good about my run fitness in this lead-up though, and I have more overall fitness than before CdA for sure. Also, I have more than validated my vDot in my recent long runs...I am probably prone to a slightly higher vDot at more of the half mary distance than the 5k.)
Comments
Stephen, remember to take into account the drop in Kona slots from 75 to 50 this year. M30-34 will have 4 slots at best this year.
Patrick has posted some stuff about not running the "+30 second protocol" so hopefully he will chime in.
my 3¢:
• Your goal is to have the best race (time) possible, not chase some arbitrary time goal or finish position. Thus my race day mantra: "Pay attention to your nutrition and pace, and your time and place will take care of themselves."
• Let's assume you have done everything right in the swim and bike, and arrive in T2 feeling ready to run. This is slightly heretical, but there is nothing magic about the "EP + 30 seconds x 6 miles" formula (which is 3 minutes, not six minutes.) There are a number of EN racers who find it easier to just adopt a pace, and stay at that speed throughout the marathon - an even split approach. The trick is two fold - knowing how EASY to go at the start, and knowing what pace to fall into over those first six miles. Most of us will tell you it's done by feel, tempered by the knowledge of what your EP is and how warm it is on the day. For me, the heat calc app in the resources tab above accurately gives me the pace I can manage depending on the temp. Note that it builds in the EP+ 30 sec formula. The way I race, those 180 seconds are spread out among all 26 miles, but I have to pay that price somehow, someway.
• Assuming you have fallen into a manageable pace, the hard part is: every mile gets harder, even though you are not going any faster. Successfully overcoming that feeling is a big key to race day success. Thus the IM cliche: "It's not about who the fastest, but about who slows down the least." Late last year, I asked the EN forum about this question, and summarized the results (and my own observations) in this blog entry.
Thanks for 'talking me off the ledge'. My best race IS my best race - whatever time that yields.
The IM demons were screaming louder than the voices of reason. It is amazing how that happens after 15-20 long weeks of training!
Stephen,
To build on Al's second point. I don't think there is anything magical about the EP+30 either. I believe that this 30 seconds is there to get people to the end running where most have imploded already. What I have read is that you have to earn the right to ride harder and run faster. With only 1 IM and tough conditions I'm not sure you know exactly how your body will react.
If I were you I'd dig up Dave Tallo's, Coach P's and Al's race reports and look in to how they managed their races. Just remember that they have multiple IM races and are very dialed in on what demands they can put on their body over 180.6. Again the catch is finding out where the edge is for you. If you take back too much on the front end of the marathon you could be walking for the last 1/2 and lose many more that 6 minutes.
I'm not saying don't go for it but with your IM n=1 you may not recognize issues soon enough. See Coach P's Placid report and walking to fix a nutrition problem. The EN pacing strategy gives you excellent advice to finish and go fast. When you are on the edge of qualifying you may need to take some calculated risks.
Gordon
I forgot I had put a version of that blog entry in the wiki here.
Seems like for every KQ there are 100 hard luck stories. I have several!
Agree that when you're on the bubble sometimes you have to roll the dice but also have to be realistic about how far to roll them...