Study - Master triathletes have not reached limits in their Ironman triathlon performance

penlynwilson

Saw this article and thought it would be of interest to the Haus. I haven't read the whole article. Here is the abstract. Nice to see that the older peeps can still get faster. . .

 

Scand J Med Sci Sports. 2012 May 14. doi: 10.1111/j.1600-0838.2012.01473.x. [Epub ahead of print]

Master triathletes have not reached limits in their Ironman triathlon performance.

Stiefel M, Knechtle B, Lepers R.

Source

Institute of General Practice and for Health Services Research, University of Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to analyze the participation and performance trends of male triathletes in the "Ironman Switzerland" from 1995 to 2010. Participation trends of all finishers aged between 18 and 64 years were analyzed over the 16-year period by considering four 4-year periods 1995-1998, 1999-2002, 2003-2006, and 2007-2010, respectively. The 3.8-km swimming, 180-km cycling, 42-km running times, and total race times were analyzed for the top 10 triathletes in each age group from 18 to 64 years. The participation of master triathletes (=40 years old) increased over the years, representing on average 23%, 28%, 37%, and 48% of total male finishers during the four 4-year periods, respectively. Over the 1995-2010 period, triathletes older than 40 years significantly improved their performance in swimming, cycling, running, and in the total time taken to complete the race. The question whether master Ironman triathletes have yet reached limits in their performance during Ironman triathlon should be raised. Further studies investigating training regimes, competition experience, or socio-demographic factors are needed to gain better insights into the phenomenon of the relative improvement in ultra-endurance performance with advancing age.

Paul Hough

This is one of those studies that reports on the obvious. As more people have stuck with endurance sports throughout their adult lives the participation rates will obviously increase and performance will improve. But that effect is in large measure due to baby boomers (US and Europe) who are coming through the ranks. As a lifelong runner, I can tell you that road racing performance was far more competitive in the 80s than in is today ... there are a boatload of measures that prove this. So without paying for an expensive study, we can predict that another decade or so into the future that participation rates in the older ranks will drop and performances will decline as the younger generation comes up...they have smaller numbers, are more likely to be overweight, and less likely to put in IM training. There will be Greats from all ages, of course, but the cultural demographics are not favorable to continue what they've seen over the last 16 years. As any statistician will tell you -- do not extrapolate beyond the bounds of your data!

baprince

Paul,
I don't think I agree with your assertion. While average marathon finish times have increased, I don't think that reflects a decrease in competitiveness. Rather, it is an increase in participation, so the increase in the number at the bottom end is skewing the averages down. With more, larger races, there are increasing numbers of walkers and first-timers whose only goal is to finish that endurance event.

I think for those who are truly competing to win, you see at increasing competition at all age levels for Kona spots and improvements in finish times. Yes, we have an obesity issue but we also have improved training techniques and mainstream role-models like Lance bringing athletes to endurance sports who might have otherwise chose to compete in more mainstream athletics.

Paul Hough

@ Brett - yes, participation rates are up which is driving average times down. But at the pointy end, the performances in the past 20 years don't even come close to what they were in the 80s. Take any quality metric you want and it shows that the level of running in the US is so much less competitive than it was back then. There are vastly more runners today and absolutely fewer quality runners (that's why Boston HAD to lower their entry standards). Just one example:
Boston 1978 - 3,872 finishers of which 2,047 broke 3 hours. Almost all finishers were men.
Boston 2002 - 9,234 MALE finishers, and only 1,024 under 3 hours.
Boston 2012 - 15,503 MALE finishers, and less than 500 under 3 hrs (not sure exactly, but 2:58:03 was 445th).

The study in question focused on Masters age groups in Ironman so my thesis is that the same baby boomers that have been competitive for decades are behind the trends seen in the survey. The increasing competition for Kona reflects more races with fewer slots, and the large increase of people taking up triathlon, especially in the baby boomer age groups as that demographic moves up. Eventually, the baby boomers will be gone and it will be very difficult to sustain an increase in participation rates -- and high competitiveness -- in the upper age groups.