The annual Kansas 70.3 Weather Crisis Thread
OK, so that's overstating it. :-) BUT.... in 2009 and 2011, on the Saturday, it looked like there would be massive thunderstorms on the Sunday, and they never happened... so there couldhave been a weather crisis thread. :-)
Anyway, I just checked the lake temp (http://www.nwk.usace.army.mil/cl/daily.cfm) and it's sitting at 73. For the two times that I went (2009, 2011), they managed to find the spot in the lake that was 75.9 degrees so wetsuits were legal...and I have to imagine that's what they would prefer, given the water safety issues. BUT, you might want to keep an eye on it!
High temps for the day for the next 10 days (including Monday 5/28) are predicted as 92, 87, 81, 6, 76, 81, 91, 93, 93, 89 on weather.com. Lows on thosse hot days are only 70. By the end of that, it's pretty likely that the lake temp will be above wet suit legal if the predictions hold up. Accuweather (which for Ames IA tends to run a little hot and dry compared to reality), has a 15 day forecast that shows temps in mid 80s and low 90s running all the way through race day.)
Be ready for no wetsuits!
Comments
(too bad it's embarrassing when I wear it since no one who swims as badly as I do ought to wear a speed suit)
I just looked at a couple of different web sites and one is still modeling very hot (now that the cool wave has just about finished) all the way through race day. The other is cold (relatively speaking) and raining on Saturday. If the latter is the case, I bet they will find the magic 76 degree spot.
73 degrees water temp June 1.
Just gotta keep watching.
Do I prefer hot or rainy?
Usually hot, since I race well in hot conditions. But this year it's been a cool spring with few hot weather days...my acclimatization is not in place...
Weather.com has highs (starting Sunday): 86 91 87 84 84 88 89 (Sat) 92 (Sun). Not too promising for wetsuits
Weather underground has 91 95 86 82 84 86 91 (Sat) 91 (Sun)
Accuweather.com [totally different data set than NOAA if understand correctly] 86 89 85 83 83 83 86 (with rain, Sat) 89 (Sun)
The one that had the cool days Fri and Sat (I think Accuweather) has erased them.
However, the weather where I live hasn't been in the upper 80s very much, so I'm going out and doing some short (<30 min) runs Sun-Thurs just for the heat acclimatization. We haven't had the chance to do it right, but I presume this is better than nothing, and at low workout cost. <br />
With a nominally 7 am start, the 5 hour mark is noon, and the 6 hour mark is 1 pm, so hopefully, no one is running out there too much above the low 80s, given that peak temps are usually 3-4 pm.
For better or worse, I just want to know what it feels like to really work up that sweat machine again. I'm not expecting to get a lot of real physiological adaptation (blood volume etc). Maybe a little, but I want to remember what it's like to want water, be hot, etc. I'm a bit disappointed I basically haven't done ANY rides when it's hot, and I know my hydration needs go way up then...haven't had a chance to practice that.
And any "extra" running I do will all be at easy pace, maybe with some strides... just to get the body temp up and juices flowing. As it turns out, I didn't run Sat, so moved that to Sun. Today is "extra". The plan already has runs on Tues and Wed. I'm going to make sure to do them in the heat of the day. We'll see how things are looking Thursday. If it turns out the real race is likely to be in the upper 70s that's way different than the upper 90s :-)